Stochastic processes constrain the within and between host evolution of influenza virus

  1. John T McCrone  Is a corresponding author
  2. Robert J Woods  Is a corresponding author
  3. Emily T Martin  Is a corresponding author
  4. Ryan E Malosh  Is a corresponding author
  5. Arnold S Monto  Is a corresponding author
  6. Adam S Lauring  Is a corresponding author
  1. University of Michigan, United States
3 figures, 1 table and 4 additional files

Figures

Figure 1 with 4 supplements
Within-host diversity of IAV populations.

(A) Boxplots (median, 25th and 75th percentiles, whiskers extend to most extreme point within median ±1.5 x IQR) of the number of viral genomes per microliter transport media stratified by day post …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.003
Figure 1—source data 1

Titers and day of sampling for all samples processed from the cohort.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.008
Figure 1—source data 2

The number of iSNV and day of sampling for samples that qualified for iSNV identification.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.009
Figure 1—source data 3

The number of iSNV and vaccination status for samples that qualified for iSNV identification.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.010
Figure 1—source data 4

Location and frequency of iSNV identified in each individual.

(The highest quality sample was used when two where available).

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.011
Figure 1—figure supplement 1
Sequence coverage for all samples.

For each sample, the sliding window mean coverage was calculated using a window size of 200 and a step of 100. The distributions of these means are plotted as box plots (median, 25th and 75th

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.004
Figure 1—figure supplement 2
Approximate maximum likelihood trees of the concatenated coding sequences for high quality H1N1 samples.

The branches are colored by season; the tip identifiers are colored by household. Arrows with numbers indicate consensus and putative minor haplotypes for samples with greater than 10 iSNV. Trees …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.005
Figure 1—figure supplement 3
Approximate maximum likelihood trees of the concatenated coding sequences for high quality H3N2 samples.

The branches are colored by season; the tip identifiers are colored by household. Arrows with numbers indicate consensus and putative minor haplotypes for samples with greater than 10 iSNV. Trees …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.006
Figure 1—figure supplement 4
The effect of titer on the number of iSNV identified.

(A) The number of iSNV identified in an isolate (y-axis) plotted against the titer (x-axis, genomes/μl transport media).

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.007
Figure 2 with 1 supplement
Within-host dynamics of IAV.

(A) Histogram of within-host iSNV frequency in 249 high quality samples. Bin width is 0.05 beginning at 0.02. As in Figure 1, mutations were classified as nonsynonymous (blue) if they were …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.012
Figure 2—source data 1

The frequency and class (nonsynonymous/synonymous) of identified iSNV.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.014
Figure 2—source data 2

Meta data for nonsynonymous iSNV found in HA.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.015
Figure 2—source data 3

Frequency and meta data for antigenic iSNV that were also identified at the global level.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.016
Figure 2—source data 4

Sampling day for within-host sample pairs.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.017
Figure 2—source data 5

Frequencies of mutations identified in longitudinal sample pairs.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.018
Figure 2—figure supplement 1
(A) Reproducibility of iSNV identification for paired samples acquired on the same day.

The x-axis represents iSNV frequencies found in the home-acquired nasal swab. The y-axis represents iSNV frequencies found the clinic-acquired combined throat and nasal swab. Dashed line is a one to …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.013
Figure 3 with 1 supplement
Between host dynamics of IAV.

(A) The distribution of pairwise L1-norm distances for household (blue) and randomly-assigned community (gold) pairs. The bar heights are normalized to the height of the highest bar for each given …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.019
Figure 3—source data 1

Genetic distance of household and community sample pairs.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.021
Figure 3—source data 2

Day of onset and meta data for transmission pairs.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.022
Figure 3—source data 3

Frequencies of iSNV identified in transmission pairs.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.023
Figure 3—source data 4

The model prediction of the probability of transmission given donor frequency for the presence-absence model.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.024
Figure 3—source data 5

The frequency of donor iSNV used in fitting transmission models.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.025
Figure 3—source data 6

The model prediction of the probability of transmission given donor frequency for the beta-binomial model.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.026
Figure 3—source data 7

Bottleneck estimates for all isolate pairings in cases where multiple donor or recipient isolates are available.

SPECID refers to specimen ID. Those beginning in M were taken at the clinic. Those beginning with HS were isolated at home.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.027
Figure 3—figure supplement 1
Estimate of effective bottleneck size with relaxed variant calling criteria.

(A) The frequency of iSNV in both recipient and donor isolates. iSNV were identified using the original variant calling pipeline as in (McCrone and Lauring, 2016). (B) The presence-absence model fit …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.020

Tables

Table 1
Influenza viruses over five seasons in a household cohort
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.002
2010–20112011–20122012–20132013–20142014–2015
Households328213321232340
Participants1441943142610491431
Vaccinated, n (%)*934 (65)554 (59)942 (66)722 (69)992 (69)
IAV Positive Individuals86236948166
H1N12613470
H3N25822661166
IAV Positive Households
Two individuals1329723
Three individuals523311
Four individuals--124
High Quality NGS Pairs§412639
  1. *Self reported or confirmed receipt of vaccine prior to the specified season.

    †RT-PCR confirmed infection.

  2. ‡Households in which two individuals were positive within 7 days of each other. In cases of trios and quartets, the putative chains could have no pair with onset > 7 days apart.

    §Samples with > 103 genome copies per µl of transport medium, adequate amplification of all eight genomic segments, and average sequencing coverage > 103 per nucleotide.

Additional files

Supplementary file 1

Sensitivity and specificity of variant detection

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.028
Supplementary file 2

Nonsynonymous substitutions in HA antigenic sites

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.029
Supplementary file 3

Estimated bottleneck size for individual transmission pairs

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.030
Transparent reporting form
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.35962.031

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