Black indicates observed data. Coloured ribbons represent each weekly forecast of 1–4 weeks ahead (showing median, 50%, and 90% probability). For each variant, forecasts are shown over an x-axis …
Performance measured by relative weighted interval score scaled against a baseline (dotted line, 1), and coverage of uncertainty at the 50% and 95% levels. Boxplot, with width proportional to number …
Boxplots show interquartile ranges, with outliers as faded points, and the ensemble model performance is marked by an asterisk. y-axis is cut-off to an upper bound of 4 for readability.
Horizon | Weighted mean | Weighted median | Unweighted mean | Unweighted median |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cases | ||||
1 week | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
2 weeks | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
3 weeks | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.82 | 0.72 |
4 weeks | 1.07 | 0.86 | 1.12 | 0.78 |
Deaths | ||||
1 week | 0.65 | 0.61 | 1.81 | 0.61 |
2 weeks | 0.58 | 0.54 | 1.29 | 0.54 |
3 weeks | 0.64 | 0.57 | 1.17 | 0.53 |
4 weeks | 0.82 | 0.67 | 0.84 | 0.62 |
EPIFORGE reporting guidelines Completed checklist following reporting guidelines on epidemic forecasting research.
Participating team metadata Team metadata for teams participating in the European Forecast Hub and evaluated in this study.