(A) Design for Experiment 1: Rats were conditioned with tone-shock pairings and then either received standard extinction (Group Extinction, n=8, tone alone presentations) or gradual extinction (Group Gradual, n=8, tone-shock pairings – shock intensity decreased across the day). Following, all groups received standard extinction of the tone and were tested for spontaneous recovery two weeks later. Simulation of the latent state model showing the associative strength (B) and latent state beliefs (C) of a gradually extinguished conditioned stimulus (CS) across conditioning, extinction, and spontaneous recovery (Cochran and Cisler, 2019). Initially, there are 10 conditioning trials (t=1–10, R=1), followed by 80 extinction trials (t=11–90). Within the (gradual) extinction trials, the CS is still paired with the unconditioned stimulus (US), however, the intensity of the US is halved every 20 trials (t=11–30, R=0.5; t=31–50, R=0.25; t=51–70, R=0.125) until it is removed for the final 20 extinction trials (t=71–90, R=0). A time delay was inserted between trials 90 and 91, simulating spontaneous recovery, before a final 20 extinction trials (t=91–110, R=0). Associative strength (B) increases across conditioning, decreases steadily across gradual extinction, and remains low after a time delay, indicating an absence of spontaneous recovery. Panel (C) depicts the degree of belief that the most recent latent state is active. If the belief changes throughout the simulation, this indicates that a new latent state has been inferred. The belief remains at 1 across conditioning, extinction, and spontaneous recovery, indicating that the prediction errors produced by gradual extinction are not sufficient to produce state-splitting. Full simulation details are included in Appendix 3. (D) Percentage freezing levels across the final session of extinction (left) and spontaneous recovery (right). Bars represent means ± SEM. Dots represent individual freezing levels (males = dark gray, females = light gray). Freezing levels were similar between groups at the final session of extinction, however, Group Gradual displayed lower freezing than Group Extinction at the spontaneous recovery test. (E) Design for Experiment 2: Rats were conditioned with tone-shock pairings and then either received standard extinction (Group Extinction, n=8), gradual extinction (Group Gradual, n=8), or remained in their home cage (Group Home, n=8). Following, all groups received standard extinction of the tone and were tested for spontaneous recovery and reinstatement. (F) Percentage freezing levels across the final session of extinction (left), spontaneous recovery test (middle), and reinstatement test (right). Bars represent means ± SEM. Dots represent individual freezing levels (males = dark gray, females = light gray). Freezing levels were similar between Groups Gradual and Extinction at the final session of extinction, while Group Home displayed a higher level. Groups Gradual and Extinction displayed less freezing than Group Home at both the spontaneous recovery and reinstatement test. However, while Group Gradual showed less freezing than Group Extinction at both tests, the difference only reached significance at the reinstatement test.