Figure 5. | Publication bias and the canonization of false facts

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Research: Publication bias and the canonization of false facts

Figure 5.

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University of Copenhagen, Denmark; University of Washington, United States; North Carolina State University, United States
Figure 5.
Download figureOpen in new tabFigure 5. False canonization rates are relatively insensitive to initial belief, unless experimental tests are inaccurate and evidentiary standards are weak.

Probability that a false claim is mistakenly canonized as a true fact vs. prior belief for various negative publication rates. Top row: weak evidentiary standards τ0=0.1 and τ1=0.9. Panel A: false positive rate α=0.05, false negative rate β=0.2, and publication rate of negative results ρ0=0.025 (light green), 0.05,0.1,0.2,0.4 (dark green). Panel B: α=0.2, β=0.4, and ρ0=0.1 (light green), 0.3,0.4,0.5,1 (dark green). Panels CD: similar to panels AB, with more demanding evidentiary standards τ0=0.001 and τ1=0.999.