Figure 9. | Publication bias and the canonization of false facts

Open accessCopyright infoDownload PDF

Research: Publication bias and the canonization of false facts

Figure 9.

Affiliation details

University of Copenhagen, Denmark; University of Washington, United States; North Carolina State University, United States
Figure 9.
Download figureOpen in new tabFigure 9. Publishing a larger fraction of negative outcomes as belief increases lessens the chances of canonizing false claims.

Probability that a false claim is mistakenly canonized as a true fact vs. baseline probability of publishing a negative outcome. The baseline probability of publishing a negative outcome is the probability that prevails when belief in the claim is weak. The actual probability of publishing a negative outcome increases linearly from the baseline rate when belief is 0 to a value of 1 when belief is 1. All other parameters are the same as in Figure 4.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.21451.010