Salem Mohamed

Eduardo Franco

eLife assessment
This valuable study discusses a hot topic in post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis. The new score for predicting post-ERCP pancreatitis offers an idea about the risk of pancreatitis before the procedure. Although most scores depend on intraprocedural manoeuvres, such as the number of attempts to cannulate the papilla, this is a solid retrospective single-center study in one country. To be validated, this score should be done in many countries and on large numbers of patients, nevertheless, this paper should interest gastrointestinal endoscopists.

anonymous

Joint Public Review:
Summary:
This work provides a new general tool for predicting post-ERCP pancreatitis before the procedure depending on pancreatic calcification, female sex, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, a native papilla of Vater, or the use of pancreatic duct procedures. Even though it is difficult for the endoscopist to predict before the procedure which case might have post-ERCP pancreatitis, this new model score can help with the maneuver and when the patient is at high risk of pancreatitis, sometimes can be deadly), so experienced endoscopists can do the procedure from the start. This paper provides a model for stratifying patients before the ERCP procedure into low, moderate, and high risk for pancreatitis. To be validated, this score should be done in many countries and on large numbers of patients. Risk factors can also be identified and added to the score to increase rank.
Strengths:
(1) One of the severe complications of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography procedure is pancreatitis, so investigators try all the time to find a score that can predict which patients will probably have pancreatitis after the procedure. Most scores depend on the intraprocedural maneuver. Some studies discuss the preprocedural score that can predict pancreatitis before the procure. This study discusses a new preprocedural score for post-ERCP pancreatitis.
(2) Depending on this score that identifies low, moderate, and high-risk patients for post-pancreatitis, so from the start, experienced and well-trained endoscopists can do the procedure or can refer patients to tertiary hospitals or use interventional radiology or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography.
(3) The number of patients in this study is sufficient to analyze data correctly.
Weaknesses:
(1) It is a single-country, retrospective study.
(2) Many cases were excluded, so the score cannot be applied to those patients.
(3) Many other studies, e.g., <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00464-021-08491-1">https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00464-021-08491-1</a>, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36344369/">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36344369/</a>, that have been published before discussing the same issue, so what is the new with this score?
(4) The discussion section needs reformulation to express the study's aim and results.
(5) Why did the authors select these items in their scoring system and did not add more variables?

A new preprocedural predictive risk model for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis: The SuPER model

Figures and data

Comparison of patient characteristics and ERCP outcomes between the development and validation cohorts.

Logistic regression analysis of predictive factors for PEP in the development cohort.

Patient distribution in terms of risk score and classification.

Goodness of fit of the risk score model.

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