Summary of reported cases of chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV), and Zika (ZIKV) in Brazil between 2013 and 2020.

(A) Incidence of reported cases (per 100,000 persons) in each municipality of Brazil, averaged over all time points, shown on the log scale. White indicates municipalities which did not report cases over the timeseries. (B) Weekly incidence of reported cases (per 100,000 persons) per municipality in Brazil, shown on the log scale. The municipalities are ordered on the y-axis by longitude from west at the top to east at the bottom.

Summary of reported cases of chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV), and Zika (ZIKV) in Brazil between 2013 and 2020.

Incidence of reported cases (per 100,000 persons) in each week of the year, averaged over the years and shown on the log scale. The panels represent states and are arranged geographically. Key: AC = Acre, AL = Alagoas, AM = Amazonas, AP = Amapá, BA = Bahia, CE = Ceará, DF = Distrito Federal, ES = Espírito Santo, GO = Goiás, MA = Maranhão, MG = Minas Gerais, MS = Mato Grosso do Sul, MT = Mato Grosso, PA = Pará, PB = Paraíba, PE = Pernambuco, PI = Piauí, PR = Paraná, RJ = Rio de Janeiro, RN = Rio Grande do Norte, RO = Rondônia, RR = Roraima, RS = Rio Grande do Sul, SC = Santa Catarina, SE = Sergipe, SP = São Paulo, TO = Tocantins.

Variables in the final models.

The beta coefficients and corresponding 95% Credible Intervals (CrI) are shown for the chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV), and Zika (ZIKV) models. Relative importance (RI) shows the order the variables were chosen in the model building process.

Regression coefficients for each explanatory temperature variable from the univariable models.

The coefficients (beta values) are shown for the models applied to the dengue (DENV, green), chikungunya (CHIKV, red), and Zika (ZIKV, blue) data, using the average range in daily temperature (A), average maximum temperature (B), absolute maximum temperature (C), average mean temperature (D), average minimum temperature (E), absolute minimum temperature (F) across the municipalities for each week.

Comparison of the WAIC (Wantanabe Akaike Information Criterion) score of the chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV), and Zika (ZIKV) univariable models obtained by including each meteorological variable separately.

The x-axis is ordered from lowest to highest WAIC score (best fitting to worst fitting model). The points are coloured by the time period the variable was calculated over.

Mean absolute error and model fit for the CHIKV, DENV, and ZIKV final multivariable models.

(A) Mean absolute error of model estimates for each municipality (absolute value of observed incidence per 100,000 persons – estimated incidence per 100,000 persons, summed over the weeks and divided by the number of weeks). Municipalities not included in the analysis are coloured white. (B) Comparison of the median expected incidence (red) and 95% credible intervals (CrI, in pink) compared to the observed incidence (blue) given as number of cases per 100,000 population, aggregated to the national level, obtained from the fit of the models at the municipality level.