Figures and data
A logic model illustrating the conceptual links between the inputs, activities, outputs, and short to long term impacts expected from effective livestock health surveillance with a particular focus on abortion.
Map of the study area in northern Tanzania showing selected pastoral, agropastoral and smallholder wards in Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara Regions. The number of investigated cases per ward are shown and the study base (Moshi) is shown.
The number (and percentage) of abortion cases by species and agro-ecological zone and the composition of the livestock herds (and percentage) in investigated households
a) The number and percentage of abortion cases reported by each LFO. b) The relationship between the number of reports per LFO and the distance to the research based in the town of Moshi.
The number of days between abortion and the investigation. No cases were investigated more than after four days after the abortion.
The difference between the expected and actual proportion of abortion cases in each species and breed. Value of 0 = the expected number of cases occurred, > 0 more than expected, < 0 less than expected (LOC= indigenous (local), XB= non-indigenous cross-bred, EX= non-indigenous exotic breed).
The number of abortion cases investigated per month (blue columns) shown against mean rainfall recorded in the Arusha region over each month of the study period (red line).
The type of samples in which pathogens were detected in the 41 abortion cases for which an attribution was made using PCR are shown. Each row represents one abortion event. Red - sample type returned a positive result; blue - sample type returned a negative result; grey - sample type was not collected.
Predicted probability of attribution being made as a function of increasing delay between abortion and case investigation, as determined by the regression model output. The blue line indicates the regression line with the 95% confidence interval shaded blue.
