Alexei V Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov ... Nigel Goldenfeld
Time-varying heterogeneous social activity explains transient suppression of epidemic waves followed by long plateaus and eventual transition towards the endemic state of an emergent pathogen, such as COVID-19.
Racial and ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection rates can impact overall epidemic dynamics and herd immunity, underscoring the need to develop socially informed transmission models that account for population variability.
Amanda C Perofsky, John Huddleston ... Cécile Viboud
Antigenic drift in influenza’s major surface proteins, hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, contributes to variability in epidemic magnitude across seasons but is less influential than subtype interference in shaping annual outbreaks.
Countrywide agent-based simulations with building-level resolution reveal the importance of demographic repartition and population density on epidemic dynamics of respiratory infections.
Samuel PC Brand, Patrick Munywoki ... David James Nokes
Targeting the mothers, and other household members, of newborns with a mixture of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines is both efficient and effective at reducing RSV hospitalizations.
The pattern of past Ebola outbreaks is indicative of an effective reproductive ratio of less than 1, which can lead to the generation of a range of outbreak sizes consistent with the scale of the ongoing epidemic.
Daniel B Larremore, Bailey K Fosdick ... Yonatan H Grad
Integrating over multiple forms of statistical uncertainty associated with serological surveys can improve serosurvey design while also enabling that uncertainty to be appropriately propagated through epidemiological models.
A combination of surveillance data, paired sera and mathematical modelling reveals which factors may influence dengue transmission and control in island settings.
Hugo G Castelán-Sánchez, Luis Delaye ... Marina Escalera Zamudio
An in-depth exploratory analysis of the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico during the first year of the epidemic provides an overview of different virus dynamics between the developing and developed world (represented by the USA and Mexico).
