Tim K Tsang, Xiaotong Huang ... Benjamin John Cowling
Household transmission modeling qualified variation of individual infectiousness among infected persons, which could be caused by both biological factors and host behaviors.
Broader case variation in respiratory viral load, and in shedding virus via droplets and aerosols, for SARS-CoV-2 than influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 facilitates greater transmission heterogeneity in the COVID-19 pandemic than the 2009 flu pandemic.
Viral dynamic modeling reveals the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness and allows to anticipate the effects of variants of concern and of vaccination on transmission.
Variation in SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics are partly explained by an individual's immune state and the infecting variant, but substantial interpersonal variation limits the reliability of isolation policies tailored to an individual's vaccination status.
An individual-based model estimates exogenous boosting of immunity following re-exposure to chickenpox is limited to 2 years after re-exposure, but an increase in herpes zoster incidence is still expected to occur following universal varicella vaccination.
Broader global access to Paxlovid, coupled with appropriately timed treatment, can mitigate the severity and transmission of SARS-Cov-2 as the virus and the landscape of immunity continue to evolve.
The impact of mass intervention campaigns is determined by the interaction between implementation logistics, patterns of human mobility and how transmission risk is distributed over space.