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    1. Epidemiology and Global Health

    Determinants of MDA impact and designing MDAs towards malaria elimination

    Bo Gao, Sompob Saralamba ... Ricardo Aguas
    The impact of mass intervention campaigns is determined by the interaction between implementation logistics, patterns of human mobility and how transmission risk is distributed over space.
    1. Epidemiology and Global Health
    2. Microbiology and Infectious Disease

    Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys

    Jon C Emery, Peter J Dodd ... Rein MGJ Houben
    Data analysis and mathematical modelling suggest that subclinical tuberculosis contributes substantially to transmission and needs to be diagnosed and treated for effective progress towards tuberculosis elimination.
    1. Epidemiology and Global Health

    Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

    David J Price, Freya M Shearer ... James M McCaw
    An analysis of Australian case data demonstrates how the combined strategy of border measures, case targeted interventions, and social distancing effectively contained the first epidemic wave of COVID-19.
    1. Epidemiology and Global Health
    2. Evolutionary Biology

    Selection for infectivity profiles in slow and fast epidemics, and the rise of SARS-CoV-2 variants

    François Blanquart, Nathanaël Hozé ... Simon Cauchemez
    Selection acting on SARS-CoV-2 variants altering the infectivity profile depends on levels of transmission in the community, and this dependence is used to infer Alpha and Delta variants infectivity profiles.
    1. Medicine
    2. Epidemiology and Global Health

    Reducing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalization in a lower-income country by vaccinating mothers-to-be and their households

    Samuel PC Brand, Patrick Munywoki ... David James Nokes
    Targeting the mothers, and other household members, of newborns with a mixture of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines is both efficient and effective at reducing RSV hospitalizations.
    1. Epidemiology and Global Health
    2. Microbiology and Infectious Disease

    Viral load and contact heterogeneity predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events

    Ashish Goyal, Daniel B Reeves ... Bryan T Mayer
    A mathematical model was used to establish a simple conceptual basis for why super-spreader events fundamentally drive the spread of SARS-CoV-2 but not influenza.
    1. Computational and Systems Biology
    2. Epidemiology and Global Health

    Modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in humans during malaria infection

    Pengxing Cao, Katharine A Collins ... James M McCaw
    A mathematical model of blood-stage infection with Plasmodium falciparum malaria capturing the sexual stage of the parasite life-cycle is validated against human data, providing new insight into human-to-mosquito transmission.
    1. Epidemiology and Global Health

    COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in South Africa and epidemiological characteristics of three variants of concern (Beta, Delta, and Omicron)

    Wan Yang, Jeffrey L Shaman
    Model-inference reconstructed SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in South Africa during March 2020 to February 2022, and quantified the immune erosion potential and transmissibility of three major variants (Beta, Delta, and Omicron), highlighting their common characteristics and the need for more proactive preparedness.
    1. Microbiology and Infectious Disease

    Host and viral determinants of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Syrian hamster

    Julia R Port, Dylan H Morris ... Vincent J Munster
    An experimental animal model provides further insights into the host and viral mechanisms underlying airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
    1. Epidemiology and Global Health

    High infectiousness immediately before COVID-19 symptom onset highlights the importance of continued contact tracing

    William S Hart, Philip K Maini, Robin N Thompson
    Fitting a mechanistic model to data from SARS-CoV-2 source-recipient pairs generates improved estimates of changes in infectiousness during infection, indicating substantial transmission shortly before symptom onset.