Integrating genotypes and phenotypes improves long-term forecasts of seasonal influenza A/H3N2 evolution
- University of Washington, United States
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), United States
- The Francis Crick Institute, United Kingdom
- The Francis Crick Insitute, United Kingdom
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan
- National Instituite of Infectious Diseases, Japan
- Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, United States
- Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
- University of Basel, Switzerland
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, United States
Abstract
Seasonal influenza virus A/H3N2 is a major cause of death globally. Vaccination remains the most effective preventative. Rapid mutation of hemagglutinin allows viruses to escape adaptive immunity. This antigenic drift necessitates regular vaccine updates. Effective vaccine strains need to represent H3N2 populations circulating one year after strain selection. Experts select strains based on experimental measurements of antigenic drift and predictions made by models from hemagglutinin sequences. We developed a novel influenza forecasting framework that integrates phenotypic measures of antigenic drift and functional constraint with previously published sequence-only fitness estimates. Forecasts informed by phenotypic measures of antigenic drift consistently outperformed previous sequence- only estimates, while sequence-only estimates of functional constraint surpassed more comprehensive experimentally-informed estimates. Importantly, the best models integrated estimates of both functional constraint and either antigenic drift phenotypes or recent population growth.
Data availability
Sequence data are available from GISAID using accession ids provided in Supplemental File S1.Source code, derived data from serological measurements, fitness metric annotations, and resulting fitness model performance data are available in the project's GitHub repository (https://github.com/blab/flu-forecasting).Raw serological measurements are restricted from public distribution by previous data sharing agreements.
Article and author information
Author details
Pierre Barrat-Charlaix
Funding
Cancer Research UK (FC001030)
- Lynne Whittaker
- Burcu Ermetal
- Rodney Stuart Daniels
- John W McCauley
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U19AI117891-01)
- Trevor Bedford
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI127893-01)
- Pierre Barrat-Charlaix
- Richard A Neher
- Trevor Bedford
Medical Research Council (FC001030)
- Lynne Whittaker
- Burcu Ermetal
- Rodney Stuart Daniels
- John W McCauley
Wellcome (FC001030)
- Lynne Whittaker
- Burcu Ermetal
- Rodney Stuart Daniels
- John W McCauley
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (10110400)
- Seiichiro Fujisaki
- Kazuya Nakamura
- Noriko Kishida
- Shinji Watanabe
- Hideki Hasegawa
Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (JPfk0108118)
- Shinji Watanabe
Australian Government Department of Health
- Ian Barr
- Kanta Subbarao
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (F31AI140714)
- John Huddleston
National Institute of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119774-01)
- Trevor Bedford
Pew Charitable Trusts
- Trevor Bedford
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Reviewing Editor
- Vaughn S Cooper, University of Pittsburgh, United States
Version history
- Received: June 17, 2020
- Accepted: August 24, 2020
- Accepted Manuscript published: September 2, 2020 (version 1)
- Version of Record published: October 13, 2020 (version 2)
Copyright
This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
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Integrating genotypes and phenotypes improves long-term forecasts of seasonal influenza A/H3N2 evolution
eLife 9:e60067.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.60067
Further reading
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- Evolutionary Biology
- Epidemiology and Global Health
- Microbiology and Infectious Disease
- Genetics and Genomics
eLife is pleased to present a Special Issue to highlight recent advances in the growing and increasingly interdisciplinary field of evolutionary medicine.
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- Biochemistry and Chemical Biology
- Evolutionary Biology
Stramenopiles form a clade of diverse eukaryotic organisms, including multicellular algae, the fish and plant pathogenic oomycetes, such as the potato blight Phytophthora, and the human intestinal protozoan Blastocystis. In most eukaryotes, glycolysis is a strictly cytosolic metabolic pathway that converts glucose to pyruvate, resulting in the production of NADH and ATP (Adenosine triphosphate). In contrast, stramenopiles have a branched glycolysis in which the enzymes of the pay-off phase are located in both the cytosol and the mitochondrial matrix. Here, we identify a mitochondrial carrier in Blastocystis that can transport glycolytic intermediates, such as dihydroxyacetone phosphate and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate, across the mitochondrial inner membrane, linking the cytosolic and mitochondrial branches of glycolysis. Comparative analyses with the phylogenetically related human mitochondrial oxoglutarate carrier (SLC25A11) and dicarboxylate carrier (SLC25A10) show that the glycolytic intermediate carrier has lost its ability to transport the canonical substrates malate and oxoglutarate. Blastocystis lacks several key components of oxidative phosphorylation required for the generation of mitochondrial ATP, such as complexes III and IV, ATP synthase, and ADP/ATP carriers. The presence of the glycolytic pay-off phase in the mitochondrial matrix generates ATP, which powers energy-requiring processes, such as macromolecular synthesis, as well as NADH, used by mitochondrial complex I to generate a proton motive force to drive the import of proteins and molecules. Given its unique substrate specificity and central role in carbon and energy metabolism, the carrier for glycolytic intermediates identified here represents a specific drug and pesticide target against stramenopile pathogens, which are of great economic importance.
