Figures and data in Range geography and temperature variability explain cross-continental convergence in range and phenology shifts in a model insect taxon

Figures
Tables
Additional files

4 figures, 6 tables and 1 additional file

Figures

Figure 1

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Representation of temporal and geographical limits characterizing the ecological niche of a hypothetical odonate species.

Points show 250 individuals according to their Julian day of emergence, latitudinal position, and temperatures to which each individual is exposed. Points represent historical observations (T1), plus signs show observations following a shift toward earlier emergence dates after warming (T2a), and triangle symbols show observations following a shift toward higher latitudes after warming (T2b). Species could also shift both range and phenology in response to warming (T2c). Warm and cool colors show hot and cold temperatures, respectively.

Figure 2

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Distribution of northern range limit shifts (A) kilometers and emergence phenology shift (B) Julian day of 76 European and North American odonate species between a recent time period (2008–2018) and a historical time period (1980–2002).

Anisoptera (dragonflies) are shown in pink, Zygoptera (damselflies) are shown in blue.

Figure 3 with 6 supplements

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Relationship between range shifts and emergence phenology shifts among North American and European odonate species (N = 66; model R² = 17.08 for generalized linear model [GLM], 14.9% for Markov Chain Monte Carlo generalized linear mixed model [MCMCglmm]).

For reference, the shaded area shows mean latitudinal range shifts of terrestrial taxa as reported by Lenoir et al. (calculated as the yearly mean dispersal rate of 1.11 ± 0.96 km per year over 38 years).

Figure 3—figure supplement 1

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p-values and coefficients of 1000 generalized linear model (GLM) iterations testing whether range shifts as calculated from random datasets predict the range shifts measured in the study.

Each point shows the results of a single GLM model, with measured range shifts as the dependent variable and randomized range shifts as the independent variable.

Figure 3—figure supplement 2

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Observed range shifts in km from the equator, against randomized predicted values according to four random datasets.

Points represent species, and each pane contains a different set of random data in calculations of randomized range shifts. There is no consistent relationship among 1000 iterations.

Figure 3—figure supplement 3

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p-values and coefficients of 1000 generalized linear model (GLM) iterations testing whether phenology shifts as calculated from random datasets predict the phenology shifts measured in the study.

Each point shows the results of a single GLM model, with measured phenology shifts as the dependent variable and randomized phenology shifts as the independent variable.

Figure 3—figure supplement 4

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Observed phenology shifts in Julian day, against randomized predicted values according to four random datasets.

Points represent species, and each pane contains a different set of random data in calculations of randomized phenology shifts. There is no consistent relationship among 1000 iterations.

Figure 3—figure supplement 5

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Panels A and B show the trace and density estimates of a phylogenetic mixed effects model exploring the relationship between range and phenology shifts in North American and European odonates (N = 66).

150,000 iterations were run to produce these results. These plots verify model convergence and absence of autocorrelation within the explanatory variables.

Figure 3—figure supplement 6

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Panels A and B show the trace and density estimates of a phylogenetic mixed effects model testing whether ecological traits, and geographic and climatic attributes predict range shifts in North American and European odonates (N = 76).

150,000 iterations were run to produce these results. Results of the best model, according to DIC, are shown here. These plots verify model convergence and absence of autocorrelation within the explanatory variables.

Figure 4

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Richness of 76 odonate species sampled in North America and Europe in the historic period (1980–2002; panes A and C) and the recent period (2008–2018; panes B and D).

Species richness per 100 × 100 km quadrat is shown in panes A and B, while panes C and D show species richness per 200 × 200 km quadrat. Dark red indicates high species richness, while light pink indicates low species richness.

Tables

Table 1

Fixed effects estimates and associated statistics from the generalized linear model and generalized mixed effects model (accounting for phylogeny; for credible intervals, see Appendix 1—table 4) of the relationship between range shifts and emergence phenology change.

The continent term shows effects of the North American continent compared to the European continent as the reference level. N gives the number of species involved in the model, and an asterisk indicates statistical significance of the variable in question (p-value <0.05). The pseudo R² type is Nagelkerke, 1991.

Phenology shift (N = 66)
	GLM		MCMCglmm
Predictors	Est.	p	Post.m	p
(Intercept)	0.12	0.53	0.12	0.53
Range shift	−0.45	<0.01*	−0.45	<0.01*
Continent	−0.22	0.44	−0.22	0.44
Model evaluation
AIC/DIC	185.39		185.43
Null model	193.13		193.12
Pseudo R²	17.08%		14.90%

Table 2

Fixed effects estimates and associated statistics from the generalized linear model and generalized mixed effects model (accounting for phylogeny; for credible intervals, see Appendix 1—table 4) of drivers of odonate range shifts.

N indicates the number of modeled species, an asterisk indicates statistical significance of the variable in question, and a dash symbol shows that the variable was excluded from the final model. The pseudo R² type is Nagelkerke, 1991. For the categorical variables breeding habitat type and range geography, we used lotic habitat type and Northern range as reference levels, respectively.

Range shift (N = 76)
	GLM		MCMCglmm
Predictors	Est.	p	Post.m	p
(Intercept)	−0.65	0.018	−0.65	0.022
Widespread distribution	0.34	0.32	0.34	0.31
Southern distribution	0.95	0.002	0.95	0.004
T° variability	−0.38	0.0005	−0.38	0.002
Model evaluation
AIC/DIC	202.8		202.9
Null model	218.7		218.7
Pseudo R²	26.60%		23.70%
Phylogenetic signal
Pagel’s lambda (p)	0.0057 (0.89)
Blomberg’s K (p)	0.11 (0.47)

Appendix 1—table 1

Samples of 76 North American and European odonate species from between 1980 and 2018 followed our criteria for quality observation records for inclusion in our analysis of geographical shifts.

Species northern range limits (NRL) are shown in this table, as well as range limit shifts. All range limit values are shown in kilometers from the equator. We used the 10 most northern points of sampling in each time period to identify species’ NRL, as detailed in the Methods section of the main text.

Species	Continent	NRL (1980–2002)	NRL (2008–2018)	NRL shift
Aeshna constricta	North America	5500.81	5692.6	191.79
Aeshna cyanea	Europe	6880.39	7018.26	137.87
Aeshna eremita	North America	7527.81	7394.66	–133.16
Aeshna grandis	Europe	7504.84	7607.68	102.83
Aeshna interrupta	North America	7235.65	7286.83	51.18
Aeshna juncea	Europe	7747.56	7812.16	64.6
Aeshna mixta	Europe	6566.18	6776.3	210.12
Aeshna umbrosa	North America	6691.19	6209.63	–481.55
Anax imperator	Europe	6263.92	6548.57	284.65
Anax junius	North America	5539.31	5666.11	126.8
Argia apicalis	North America	4922.17	5219.38	297.22
Argia fumipennis	North America	5235.2	5168.12	–67.08
Argia moesta	North America	5533.74	5301.98	–231.77
Basiaeschna janata	North America	5649.43	5655.77	6.34
Brachytron pratense	Europe	6737.42	6905.46	168.04
Calopteryx maculata	North America	5329.56	5359.13	29.57
Calopteryx virgo	Europe	7275.9	7549.35	273.45
Ceriagrion tenellum	Europe	5900.55	5950.63	50.08
Coenagrion hastulatum	Europe	7528.94	7651.51	122.57
Coenagrion mercuriale	Europe	5913.57	5867.06	–46.52
Coenagrion puella	Europe	6904.7	6869.58	–35.12
Coenagrion pulchellum	Europe	7076.45	7152.81	76.36
Coenagrion resolutum	North America	7516.44	7408.7	–107.73
Cordulegaster boltonii	Europe	7237.43	7346.93	109.49
Cordulia aenea	Europe	7400.12	7434.02	33.9
Cordulia shurtleffii	North America	7499.82	7421.98	–77.84
Enallagma antennatum	North America	5037.73	5347.01	309.28
Enallagma basidens	North America	4768.61	4850.05	81.44
Enallagma carunculatum	North America	5950.86	5592.47	–358.38
Enallagma civile	North America	5322.59	5473.78	151.19
Enallagma cyathigerum	Europe	7594.97	7733.06	138.09
Enallagma ebrium	North America	6341.31	5907.69	–433.62
Enallagma exsulans	North America	5655.94	5253.94	–402
Enallagma hageni	North America	6113.97	5865.52	–248.45
Enallagma signatum	North America	5208.92	5281.09	72.17
Epitheca cynosura	North America	5541.19	5582.56	41.37
Erythemis simplicicollis	North America	5271	5292.65	21.65
Erythromma najas	Europe	7171.87	7372.13	200.25
Gomphus vulgatissimus	Europe	6890.76	7010.12	119.37
Hetaerina americana	North America	5044.41	5244.49	200.08
Ischnura cervula	North America	5973.57	5526.83	–446.74
Ischnura hastata	North America	4725.07	4897.71	172.65
Ischnura perparva	North America	5608.92	5438.53	–170.4
Ischnura posita	North America	5084.08	5143.79	59.71
Ischnura pumilio	Europe	6213.77	6769.62	555.85
Ischnura verticalis	North America	5579.68	5750.9	171.22
Ladona julia	North America	5908.68	5871.84	–36.83
Lestes congener	North America	6240.48	5803.75	–436.74
Lestes disjunctus	North America	7294.75	7314.26	19.51
Lestes dryas	Europe	6824.89	7108.33	283.44
Lestes rectangularis	North America	5263.85	5552.64	288.79
Lestes unguiculatus	North America	5803.91	6030.62	226.71
Leucorrhinia dubia	Europe	7675.72	7749.01	73.29
Leucorrhinia hudsonica	North America	7500.27	7446.85	–53.42
Libellula depressa	Europe	6810.85	7015.37	204.52
Libellula fulva	Europe	6602.18	6882.5	280.32
Libellula luctuosa	North America	5337.86	5320.1	–17.76
Libellula pulchella	North America	5556.31	5692.14	135.83
Orthetrum coerulescens	Europe	6744.55	6903.01	158.46
Pachydiplax longipennis	North America	5495.02	5467.11	–27.92
Pantala flavescens	North America	5190.25	5510.15	319.9
Perithemis tenera	North America	4929.38	5192.47	263.09
Plathemis lydia	North America	5539.41	5594.8	55.38
Platycnemis pennipes	Europe	6934.22	7125.72	191.5
Pyrrhosoma nymphula	Europe	7131.07	7313.37	182.3
Rhionaeschna californica	North America	5641.53	5458.21	–183.32
Rhionaeschna multicolor	North America	5581	5477.34	–103.66
Somatochlora metallica	Europe	7718.67	7743.21	24.54
Somatochlora semicircularis	North America	6533.02	5994.13	–538.89
Sympetrum corruptum	North America	5585.68	5733.2	147.52
Sympetrum danae	Europe	7268.54	7565.29	296.75
Sympetrum internum	North America	7179.45	7121.38	–58.07
Sympetrum pallipes	North America	5655.65	5527.84	–127.8
Sympetrum sanguineum	Europe	6663.43	6970.56	307.13
Sympetrum striolatum	Europe	6972.22	7098.74	126.52
Sympetrum vulgatum	Europe	6897.33	7274.78	377.45

Appendix 1—table 2

Sixty-six species sampled across North America and Europe between 1980 and 2018 followed our criteria for quality observation records for inclusion in our analysis of emergence phenology shifts.

Mean phenological shifts (PS) are measured in the number of Julian days comparing both time periods, as estimated using the Weibull distribution (see Methods). We also report the number of 200 × 200 quadrats used to calculate phenology estimates per species.

Species	Number of quadrats	Mean PS
Aeshna cyanea	37	–8.05
Aeshna grandis	43	6.73
Aeshna juncea	34	–1.11
Aeshna mixta	22	–12.95
Aeshna umbrosa	8	27.42
Anax imperator	27	4.05
Anax junius	19	–12.21
Argia fumipennis	8	–3.39
Argia moesta	11	–7.62
Basiaeschna janata	2	–4.69
Brachytron pratense	24	–8.18
Calopteryx maculata	15	–4.14
Calopteryx virgo	41	4.35
Ceriagrion tenellum	14	–3.88
Coenagrion hastulatum	20	–4.97
Coenagrion mercuriale	11	5.80
Coenagrion puella	33	–1.00
Coenagrion pulchellum	29	1.94
Coenagrion resolutum	2	0.33
Cordulegaster boltonii	34	4.08
Cordulia aenea	31	–7.72
Cordulia shurtleffii	4	1.78
Enallagma basidens	2	0.52
Enallagma carunculatum	8	5.10
Enallagma civile	11	1.82
Enallagma cyathigerum	46	–9.81
Enallagma ebrium	7	–1.34
Enallagma exsulans	8	–2.83
Enallagma hageni	5	–4.79
Enallagma signatum	6	1.51
Epitheca cynosura	4	–8.82
Erythemis simplicicollis	15	0.01
Erythromma najas	35	–4.82
Gomphus vulgatissimus	12	–9.14
Hetaerina americana	6	–10.15
Ischnura cervula	3	10.65
Ischnura perparva	2	8.85
Ischnura posita	12	–5.55
Ischnura pumilio	14	–0.97
Ischnura verticalis	16	2.39
Ladona julia	9	4.29
Lestes congener	9	6.03
Lestes disjunctus	4	10.48
Lestes dryas	6	5.13
Lestes rectangularis	12	0.81
Leucorrhinia dubia	18	–6.05
Leucorrhinia hudsonica	4	–13.17
Libellula depressa	30	–6.13
Libellula fulva	16	–2.50
Libellula luctuosa	15	–5.11
Libellula pulchella	14	–6.43
Orthetrum coerulescens	22	4.11
Pachydiplax longipennis	13	–3.84
Perithemis tenera	5	–13.60
Plathemis lydia	14	0.30
Platycnemis pennipes	30	–0.40
Pyrrhosoma nymphula	39	–19.40
Rhionaeschna californica	2	–8.41
Rhionaeschna multicolor	4	–11.68
Somatochlora metallica	31	7.91
Sympetrum danae	32	–3.34
Sympetrum internum	5	3.05
Sympetrum pallipes	3	9.67
Sympetrum sanguineum	28	–13.30
Sympetrum vulgatum	16	–13.56

Appendix 1—table 3

Ecological and geographical traits of 76 North American and European odonate species used in this work.

Field guides (Cannings, 2002; Jones et al., 2008; Paulson, 2012) and existing trait databases (Powney et al., 2014; Waller et al., 2019) were used to build this dataset. Habitat type represents species’ breeding habitat and can have a value of lentic, lotic, or both types. Distribution shows the general geographic position of each species’ range, which can be widespread (W), southern (S), northern (N), southern and widespread (S–W), or northern and widespread (N–W). Oviposition type corresponds to egg laying inside plants (endophytic) as opposed to directly in water or on plants (exophytic). Body size is measured as body length in mm. In the case that body length was given as a maximum and minimum value, we used the average of both values.

Species	Habitat	Distribution	Flight	Oviposition	Body size
Aeshna constricta	Both	W	2.5	Endophytic	69
Aeshna cyanea	Lentic	S	3	Endophytic	71.5
Aeshna eremita	Both	N–W	3	Endophytic	72.5
Aeshna grandis	Both	N	4	Endophytic	73.5
Aeshna interrupta	Both	W	3	Endophytic	66.5
Aeshna juncea	Lentic	N	4.5	Endophytic	75.5
Aeshna mixta	Both	S	2.5	Endophytic	60
Aeshna umbrosa	Both	W	3	Endophytic	68.5
Anax imperator	Lentic	S	2.5	Endophytic	76.5
Anax junius	Both	S–W	7	Endophytic	74
Argia apicalis	Both	S–W	4	Endophytic	36.5
Argia fumipennis	Both	S–W	3.5	Endophytic	31.5
Argia moesta	Lotic	S–W	3	Endophytic	39.5
Basiaeschna janata	Both	W	1	Endophytic	59
Brachytron pratense	Lentic	S	2	Endophytic	58.5
Calopteryx maculata	Lotic	S–W	3	Endophytic	48
Calopteryx virgo	Lotic	W	3.5	Endophytic	47
Ceriagrion tenellum	Both	S	3	Endophytic	30
Coenagrion hastulatum	Lentic	N	2.5	Endophytic	32
Coenagrion mercuriale	Lotic	S	2.5	Endophytic	29.5
Coenagrion puella	Lentic	S	3.5	Endophytic	34
Coenagrion pulchellum	Both	S	2	Endophytic	36
Coenagrion resolutum	Lentic	N–W	2.5	Endophytic	30
Cordulegaster boltonii	Lotic	W	3.5	Endophytic	77
Cordulia aenea	Lentic	S	2	Exophytic	51
Cordulia shurtleffii	Both	N–W	2	Exophytic	46
Enallagma antennatum	Both	S–W	2	Endophytic	30
Enallagma basidens	Both	S–W	4.5	Endophytic	24.5
Enallagma carunculatum	Both	W	3.5	Endophytic	31.5
Enallagma civile	Both	S–W	3.5	Endophytic	33.5
Enallagma cyathigerum	Both	W	3.5	Endophytic	32
Enallagma ebrium	Both	N–W	2.5	Endophytic	31
Enallagma exsulans	Both	S–W	3.5	Endophytic	34
Enallagma hageni	Both	N–W	2.5	Endophytic	30
Enallagma signatum	Both	S–W	2.5	Endophytic	32.5
Epitheca cynosura	Both	S–W	2.5	Endophytic	40.5
Erythemis simplicicollis	Both	S–W	2.5	Endophytic	41
Erythromma najas	Both	S	3	Endophytic	33
Gomphus vulgatissimus	Lotic	S	2	Exophytic	47.5
Hetaerina americana	Lotic	S–W	5	Endophytic	42
Ischnura cervula	Both	W	6	Endophytic	27.5
Ischnura hastata	Lentic	S–W	3.5	Endophytic	24
Ischnura perparva	Both	S–W	5	Endophytic	26.5
Ischnura posita	Both	S–W	3.5	Endophytic	25
Ischnura pumilio	Lentic	S	3	Endophytic	29
Ischnura verticalis	Both	W	3.5	Endophytic	26.5
Ladona julia	Lentic	N–W	2	Endophytic	41.5
Lestes congener	Lentic	W	2.5	Endophytic	36.5
Lestes disjunctus	Both	W	2.5	Endophytic	37.5
Lestes dryas	Lentic	S	2	Endophytic	37.5
Lestes rectangularis	Both	S–W	2.5	Endophytic	45
Lestes unguiculatus	Both	W	3	Endophytic	37.5
Leucorrhinia dubia	Lentic	N	2.5	Exophytic	33.5
Leucorrhinia hudsonica	Lentic	N–W	2	Endophytic	29.5
Libellula depressa	Lentic	S	2.5	Exophytic	43.5
Libellula fulva	Lentic	S	2	Exophytic	43.5
Libellula luctuosa	Lentic	S–W	2.5	Exophytic	46
Libellula pulchella	Both	W	2.5	Endophytic	54.5
Orthetrum coerulescens	Lotic	S	3	Exophytic	40.5
Pachydiplax longipennis	Both	S–W	3	Endophytic	35.5
Pantala flavescens	Both	S	3	Exophytic	48.5
Perithemis tenera	Both	S–W	4.5	Exophytic	22.5
Plathemis lydia	Both	S–W	3	Exophytic	45
Platycnemis pennipes	Lotic	S	2.5	Endophytic	36
Pyrrhosoma nymphula	Lentic	W	1.5	Endophytic	34.5
Rhionaeschna californica	Lentic	S–W	4	Endophytic	60.5
Rhionaeschna multicolor	Both	S–W	2	Endophytic	67
Somatochlora metallica	Both	W	1.5	Exophytic	53
Somatochlora semicircularis	Lentic	W	2	Exophytic	49.5
Sympetrum corruptum	Both	S–W	5	Exophytic	40.5
Sympetrum danae	Lentic	W	2	Exophytic	31.5
Sympetrum internum	Lentic	W	4	Exophytic	33.5
Sympetrum pallipes	Both	S–W	2	Endophytic	36
Sympetrum sanguineum	Lentic	S	3.5	Exophytic	36.5
Sympetrum striolatum	Both	W	5	Exophytic	39.5
Sympetrum vulgatum	Lentic	S	2	Exophytic	37.5

Appendix 1—table 4

Credible intervals of all MCMCglmm models testing predictions regarding the range and phenology shifts across 66 odonate species in North America and Europe.

These models are detailed in Model information and statements of the Supplementary Information.

	Lower credible interval	Upper credible interval
Phenological shifts ~ range shifts
(Intercept)	–0.26	0.49
Range shifts	–0.71	–0.16
Continent	–0.75	0.30
Range shifts ~ range geography + T° variability
(Intercept)	–1.22	–0.12
Southern range	0.36	1.56
Widespread	–0.32	1.08
T° variability	–0.60	–0.18

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Catherine Sirois-Delisle
Susan CC Gordon
Jeremy Kerr

(2025)

Range geography and temperature variability explain cross-continental convergence in range and phenology shifts in a model insect taxon

eLife 13:RP101208.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.101208.4

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Representation of temporal and geographical limits characterizing the ecological niche of a hypothetical odonate species.

Distribution of northern range limit shifts (A) kilometers and emergence phenology shift (B) Julian day of 76 European and North American odonate species between a recent time period (2008–2018) and a historical time period (1980–2002).

Relationship between range shifts and emergence phenology shifts among North American and European odonate species (N = 66; model R2 = 17.08 for generalized linear model [GLM], 14.9% for Markov Chain Monte Carlo generalized linear mixed model [MCMCglmm]).

p-values and coefficients of 1000 generalized linear model (GLM) iterations testing whether range shifts as calculated from random datasets predict the range shifts measured in the study.

Observed range shifts in km from the equator, against randomized predicted values according to four random datasets.

p-values and coefficients of 1000 generalized linear model (GLM) iterations testing whether phenology shifts as calculated from random datasets predict the phenology shifts measured in the study.

Observed phenology shifts in Julian day, against randomized predicted values according to four random datasets.

Panels A and B show the trace and density estimates of a phylogenetic mixed effects model exploring the relationship between range and phenology shifts in North American and European odonates (N = 66).

Panels A and B show the trace and density estimates of a phylogenetic mixed effects model testing whether ecological traits, and geographic and climatic attributes predict range shifts in North American and European odonates (N = 76).

Richness of 76 odonate species sampled in North America and Europe in the historic period (1980–2002; panes A and C) and the recent period (2008–2018; panes B and D).

Fixed effects estimates and associated statistics from the generalized linear model and generalized mixed effects model (accounting for phylogeny; for credible intervals, see Appendix 1—table 4) of the relationship between range shifts and emergence phenology change.

Fixed effects estimates and associated statistics from the generalized linear model and generalized mixed effects model (accounting for phylogeny; for credible intervals, see Appendix 1—table 4) of drivers of odonate range shifts.

Samples of 76 North American and European odonate species from between 1980 and 2018 followed our criteria for quality observation records for inclusion in our analysis of geographical shifts.

Sixty-six species sampled across North America and Europe between 1980 and 2018 followed our criteria for quality observation records for inclusion in our analysis of emergence phenology shifts.

Ecological and geographical traits of 76 North American and European odonate species used in this work.

Credible intervals of all MCMCglmm models testing predictions regarding the range and phenology shifts across 66 odonate species in North America and Europe.

MDAR checklist

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)

Cite this article (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

Relationship between range shifts and emergence phenology shifts among North American and European odonate species (N = 66; model R² = 17.08 for generalized linear model [GLM], 14.9% for Markov Chain Monte Carlo generalized linear mixed model [MCMCglmm]).