Research: Decoupling of the minority PhD talent pool and assistant professor hiring in medical school basic science departments in the US

UTG

URM Target Growth Rate

$\text{exp}(t*C_{UTG})$

GR_WR,Other

WR Non-Faculty Student Growth Rate

BSG * P_0,WR,Other

GR_WR,Faculty

WR Faculty Student Growth Rate

BSG * P_0,WR,Faculty

GR_URM,Other

URM Non-Faculty Student Growth Rate

BSG * P_0,URM,Other

GR_URM,Faculty

URM Faculty Student Growth Rate

MAX(BSG * P_{0,URM,Faculty}, UTG * P_{0,URM,Faculty})

PHD_WR,Other

WR Non-Faculty PHD Graduates

PHD_WR,Other,0$+{{\displaystyle \int }}^{\text{}}G{R}_{WR,Other}-D{R}_{WR,Other}dt$

PHD_WR,Faculty

WR Faculty Student PHD Graduates

PHD_WR,Faculty,0$+{{\displaystyle \int }}^{\text{}}G{R}_{WR,Faculty}-M{R}_{WR,Faculty}dt$

PHD_URM,Other

URM Non-Faculty PHD Graduates

PHD_URM,Other,0$+{{\displaystyle \int }}^{\text{}}G{R}_{URM,Other}-D{R}_{URM,Other}dt$

PHD_URM,Faculty

URM Faculty PHD Graduates

PHD_{URM,Faculty,0}$+{{\displaystyle \int }}^{\text{}}G{R}_{URM,Faculty}-M{R}_{URM,Faculty}-T{R}_{URM,Faculty}dt$

DR_WR,Other

WR Non-Faculty Student Departure Rate

PHD_WR.Other

MR_WR,Faculty

WR Faculty Student Market Entrance Rate

PHD_WR.Faculty

DR_URM,Other

WR Non-Faculty Student Market Entrance Rate

PHD_WR.Other

MR_URM,Faculty

WR Faculty Student Market Transition Rate

C_UTR*PHD_URM.Faculty

TR_URM,Faculty

WR Faculty Student Departure Rate

(1-C_UTR)*PHD_URM.Faculty

PD_WR

WR Candidates on the Market (e.g., Postdocs)

PD_{WR, 0}$+{{\displaystyle \int }}^{\text{}}M{R}_{WR,Faculty}-H{R}_{WR}-D{R}_{WR, Faculty}dt$

PD_URM

URM Candidates on the Market (e.g., Postdocs)

PD_URM,0$+{{\displaystyle \int }}^{\text{}}M{R}_{URM,Faculty}-H{R}_{URM}-D{R}_{URM, Faculty}dt$

π_URM

Proportion of URM candidates on the market

PD_URM/(PD_URM+ PD_WR)

HR_WR

Hiring rate of WR candidates

MIN[PD_WR,S*(1- π_URM)]

HR_URM

Hiring rate of URM candidates

MIN(PD_URM,S*π_URM)

DR_WR,Faculty

WR Faculty Student Departure Rate

$\{\begin{array}{cc}0& ifH{R}_{WR}<\frac{P{D}_{WR}}{5}\\ \frac{P{D}_{WR}}{5}& otherwise\end{array}$

DR_URM,Faculty

URM Faculty Student Departure Rate

$\{\begin{array}{cc}0& ifH{R}_{URM}<\frac{P{D}_{URM}}{5}\\ \frac{P{D}_{URM}}{5}& otherwise\end{array}$

AP_WR

WR Assistant Professors

AP_{WR, 0}$+{{\displaystyle \int }}^{\text{}}H{R}_{WR}-H{R}_{WR,t-6}dt$

AP_URM

URM Assistant Professors

AP_URM,0$+{{\displaystyle \int }}^{\text{}}H{R}_{URM}-H{R}_{URM, t-6}dt$

P_{0,URM,Faculty}

URM Faculty Student Growth Rate Multiplier

34.44

AAMC Faculty Roster (Imputed values, URM hiring 1980-1997)

P_0,URM,Other

URM Non-Faculty Student Growth Rate Multiplier

64

AAMC Faculty Roster (Exponential fit of URM PhD graduate growth and imputed URM hiring 1980-1997)

P_0,WR,Faculty

WR Faculty Student Growth Rate Multiplier

566.67

AAMC Faculty Roster (Imputed values, WR hiring 1980-1997)

P_0,WR,Other

WR Non-Faculty Student Growth Rate Multiplier

3500

AAMC Faculty Roster (Linear fit of WR PhD graduate growth and imputed WR hiring 1980-1997)

C_UTG

URM Target Growth Constant

0.0728

FASEB (Author estimation based on exponential fit to URM PhD graduation rate 1980-2013)

PHD_WR,Other,0

Initial WR Non-Faculty PhD Graduates

3570

FASEB (Author estimation based on number of WR PhD graduates)

PHD_WR,Other,0

Initial WR Faculty PhD Graduates

438

FASEB (Author estimation based on number of WR PhD graduates)

PHD_WR,Other,0

Initial URM Non-Faculty PhD Graduates

84.6

FASEB (Author estimation based on number of URM PhD graduates)

PHD_WR,Other,0

Initial URM Faculty PhD Graduates

25.4

FASEB (Author estimation based on number of URM PhD graduates)

C_UTR

URM Transition Rate Constant

0.0025

AAMC Faculty Roster (Author estimation based on % URM Assistant Professor 2014)

PD_{WR, 0}

Initial WR Candidates on the Market

511

AAMC Faculty Roster (Imputed Hiring Value)

PD_URM,0

Initial URM Candidates on the Market

19

AAMC Faculty Roster (Imputed Hiring Value)

S

Faculty Slots Available per Year

Step function time series:

${\displaystyle \mathrm{S}=\left\{\begin{array}{c}601.11\\ 1063.67\end{array}\begin{array}{c}t\in \left[0,18\right)\\ t>18\end{array}\right\}}$

AAMC Faculty Roster (average of imputed hiring values: 1980-1997; 1998-2013)

AP_{WR, 0}

Initial WR Assistant Professors

3246

AAMC Faculty Roster

AP_URM,0

Initial URM Assistant Professors

132

AAMC Faculty Roster