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The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which caused the recent global coronavirus pandemic, is the latest in a string of coronaviruses that have caused serious outbreaks. This group of coronaviruses can also infect other mammals and likely jumped between species – including from non-humans to humans – over the course of evolution.
Determining when and how viruses evolved to infect humans can help scientists predict and prevent outbreaks. However, tracking the evolutionary trajectory of coronaviruses is challenging, and there are conflicting views on how often coronaviruses crossed between species and when these transitions likely occurred. Some studies suggest that coronaviruses originated early on in evolution and evolved together with their mammalian hosts, only occasionally jumping to and from different species. While others suggest they appeared more recently, and rapidly diversified by regularly transferring between species.
To determine which is the most likely scenario, Maestri, Perez-Lamarque et al. developed a computational approach using already available data on the genetics and evolutionary history of mammals and coronaviruses. This revealed that coronaviruses originated recently in bats from East Asia and Europe, and primarily evolved by rapidly transferring between different mammalian species. This has led to geographical hotspots of diverse coronaviruses in East Asia and Europe.
Maestri, Perez-Lamarque et al. found that it was rare for coronaviruses to spill over from bats to other types of mammals. Most of these spillovers resulted from coronaviruses jumping from bats to humans or domesticated animals. Humans appeared to be the main intermediary host that coronaviruses temporarily infected as they transferred from bats to other mammals.
These findings – that coronaviruses emerged recently in evolution, jumped relatively frequently between species, and are geographically restricted – suggest that future transmissions are likely. Gathering more coronavirus samples from across the world and using even more powerful analysis tools could help scientists understand more about how these viruses recently evolved. These insights may lead to strategies for preventing new coronaviruses from emerging and spreading among humans.
