Range geographies, not functional traits, explain convergent range and phenology shifts under climate change

Reviewer #1 (Public review):

Summary:

This study evaluates whether species can shift geographically, temporally, or both ways in response to climate change. It also teases out the relative importance of geographic context, temperature variability, and functional traits in predicting the shifts. The study system is large occurrence datasets for dragonflies and damselflies split between two time periods and two continents. Results indicate that more species exhibited both shifts than one or the other or neither, and that geographic context and temp variability were more influential than traits. The results have implications for future analyses (e.g. incorporating habitat availability) and for choosing winner and loser species under climate change. The methodology would be useful for other taxa and study regions with strong community/citizen science and extensive occurrence data.

Strengths:

This is an organized and well-written paper that builds on a popular topic and moves it forward. It has the right idea and approach, and the results are useful answers to the predictions and for conservation planning (i.e. identifying climate winners and losers). There is technical proficiency and analytical rigor driven by an understanding of the data and its limitations.

Weaknesses:

(1) The habitat classifications (Table S3) are often wrong. "Both" is overused. In North America, for example, Anax junius, Cordulia shurtleffii, Epitheca cynosura, Erythemis simplicicollis, Libellula pulchella, Pachydiplax longipennis, Pantala flavescens, Perithemis tenera, Ischnura posita, the Lestes species, and several Enallagma species are not lotic breeding. These species rarely occur let alone successfully reproduce at lotic sites. Other species are arguably "both", like Rhionaeschna multicolor which is mostly lentic. Not saying this would have altered the conclusions, but it may have exacerbated the weak trait effects.

(2) The conservative spatial resolution (100 x 100 km) limits the analysis to wide-ranging and generalist species. There's no rationale given, so not sure if this was by design or necessity, but it limits the number of analyzable species and potentially changes the inference.

(3) The objective includes a prediction about generalists vs specialists (L99-103) yet there is no further mention of this dichotomy in the abstract, methods, results, or discussion.

(4) Key references were overlooked or dismissed, like in the new edition of Dragonflies & Damselflies model organisms book, especially chapters 24 and 27.

Reviewer #2 (Public review):

Summary:

This paper explores a highly interesting question regarding how species migration success relates to phenology shifts, and it finds a positive relationship. The findings are significant, and the strength of the evidence is solid. However, there are substantial issues with the writing, presentation, and analyses that need to be addressed. First, I disagree with the conclusion that species that don't migrate are "losers" - some species might not migrate simply because they have broad climatic niches and are less sensitive to climate change. Second, the results concerning species' southern range limits could provide valuable insights. These could be used to assess whether sampling bias has influenced the results. If species are truly migrating, we should observe northward shifts in their southern range limits. However, if this is an artifact of increased sampling over time, we would expect broader distributions both north and south. Finally, Figure 1 is missed panel B, which needs to be addressed.

Reviewer #3 (Public review):

Summary:

In their article "Range geographies, not functional traits, explain convergent range and phenology shifts under climate change," the authors rigorously investigate the temporal shifts in odonate species and their potential predictors. Specifically, they examine whether species shift their geographic ranges poleward or alter their phenology to avoid extreme conditions. Leveraging opportunistic observations of European and North American odonates, they find that species showing significant range shifts also exhibited earlier phenological shifts. Considering a broad range of potential predictors, their results reveal that geographical factors, but not functional traits, are associated with these shifts.

Strengths:

The article addresses an important topic in ecology and conservation that is particularly timely in the face of reports of substantial insect declines in North America and Europe over the past decades. Through data integration the authors leverage the rich natural history record for odonates, broadening the taxonomic scope of analyses of temporal trends in phenology and distribution to this taxon. The combination of phenological and range shifts in one framework presents an elegant way to reconcile previous findings improving our understanding of the drivers of biodiversity loss.

Weaknesses:

The introduction and discussion of the article would benefit from a stronger contextualization of recent studies on biological responses to climate change and the underpinning mechanism.

The presentation of the results (particularly in figures) should be improved to address the integrative character of the work and help readers extract the main results. While the writing of the article is generally good, particularly the captions and results contain many inconsistencies and lack important detail. With the multitude of the relationships that were tested (the influence of traits) the article needs more coherence.