Multiple regression analyses for predicting %NC.

Multiple regression analysis between %NC and CGM_Mean, CGM_Std, and AC_Var (A). That between %NC and FBG, HbA1c, and PG120 (B). Scatter plots for predicted %NC versus measured %NC (the left). Each point corresponds to the values for a single subject. Bars represent the 95% CIs of the coefficients of the regression models (the right).

LASSO and PLS regression analyses for predicting %NC.

(A) Relationship between regularization coefficients (lambda) and the MSE based on the leave-one-out cross-validation in predicting %NC. Dotted vertical line indicates the optimal lambda, which provides the least MSE. The optimal lambda was 0.849.

(B) LASSO regularization paths along the lambda in predicting %NC. Cyan, magenta, and gray lines indicate the estimated coefficients of AC_Mean, AC_Var, and the other input variables, respectively. Dotted vertical line indicates the optimal lambda.

(C) Estimated coefficients with the optimal lambda. Only variables with non-zero coefficients are shown. Input variables include the following 21 variables: BMI, FBG, HbA1c, PG120, I.I., composite index, oral DI, CGM_Mean, CGM_Std, CONGA, LI, JINDEX, HBGI, GRADE, MODD, MAGE, ADRR, MVALUE, MAG, AC_Mean, and AC_Var.

(D) VIP generated from the PLS regression predicting %NC. Variables with a VIPLJ≥LJ1 (the dotted line) were considered to significantly contribute to the prediction.

Factor analysis of the clinical parameters.

(A) Factor analysis after orthogonal rotation. The values and colors were based on the factor loadings. The columns represent each factor. The rows represent input indices.

(B) Cronbach’s α for each factor. Bars represent the 95% CI.

(C) Scatter plots and fitted linear regression lines for factor scores versus %NC. Each point corresponds to the values for a single subject. r is Spearman’s correlation coefficient, and the value in parentheses is the 95% CI.

Overview of the three components of glucose dynamics.

(A) 240 min simulated glucose concentration. The colors of the line are based on the mean value (Mean), Std, and AC_Var of the simulated blood glucose. Red and gray dotted horizontal lines indicate the minimum or maximum values of blood glucose, respectively.

(B) Previously reported patterns of blood glucose during the OGTT (Hulman et al., 2018). Green, class 1; light blue, class 2; dark blue, class 3; red, class 4.

(C) Mean, Std, and AC_Var of the glucose during the OGTT. Colors are based on the class shown in Figure 4B.