The gamma distribution only predicts the variance of richness and diversity under phylogenetic coarse-graining when covariance is included.
a,b) In contrast with the mean, the variance of richness and diversity estimates predicted by the gamma distribution (Eq. 17) failed to capture empirical estimates from the human gut. Predictions are only comparable when empirical estimates of covariance are included in the predictions of the gamma distribution, meaning that dependence among community members is essential to describe the variation in measures of biodiversity across communities c,d) This lack of predictive success was constant across environments, e,f) though the addition of covariance consistently improves our analytic predictions. The colorscale used here is identical to the colorscale used in Fig. 3.