(A) Time to bolting for the gi-201 and vin3-1 mutants lines was calculated using previously published parameter sets (7) for Gorsow, Poland and overlayed on ten year average mean temperature (blue) and model-predicted germination (black), assuming that both GI and VIN3 affect germination only indirectly via flowering time. (B) Predicted mean daily temperature at first seed set for winter annual Col-0 (closed circles), gi (open circles), and vin3 (closed triangles) across the European climate transect (Figure 1D), using the flowering time and seed set models. Note that sensitivity of life history parameters to GI increases with increasing latitude with wider variation in annual photoperiod. (C) Assuming germination is spread evenly over 1 month after first seed set, predicated germination of the whole progeny of Col-0, gi and vin3-1 winter annual seeds across the transect. Later flowering has the potential to lead to large changes in the number of low-dormant seeds due to the extreme sensitivity of seed set to temperature in this range (Figure 2).