1. Ecology
  2. Epidemiology and Global Health
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The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

  1. Moritz UG Kraemer  Is a corresponding author
  2. Marianne E Sinka
  3. Kirsten A Duda
  4. Adrian QN Mylne
  5. Freya M Shearer
  6. Christopher M Barker
  7. Chester G Moore
  8. Roberta G Carvalho
  9. Giovanini E Coelho
  10. Wim Van Bortel
  11. Guy Hendrickx
  12. Francis Schaffner
  13. Iqbal RF Elyazar
  14. Hwa-Jen Teng
  15. Oliver J Brady
  16. Jane P Messina
  17. David M Pigott
  18. Thomas W Scott
  19. David L Smith
  20. GR William Wint
  21. Nick Golding
  22. Simon I Hay  Is a corresponding author
  1. University of Oxford, United Kingdom
  2. University of California, Davis, United States
  3. Colorado State University, United States
  4. Ministry of Health, Brazil
  5. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Sweden
  6. Avia-GIS, Belgium
  7. Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Indonesia
  8. Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan
  9. National Institutes of Health, United States
  10. Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, United States
  11. University of Washington, United States
Research Article
Cite this article as: eLife 2015;4:e08347 doi: 10.7554/eLife.08347
3 figures, 2 tables and 1 additional file


Figure 1 with 4 supplements
Global map of the predicted distribution of Ae. aegypti.

The map depicts the probability of occurrence (from 0 blue to 1 red) at a spatial resolution of 5 km × 5 km.

Figure 1—figure supplement 1
Effect plots of covariates used in this study showing the marginal effect of each covariate on probability of presence for Ae. aegypti (1) and Ae. albopictus (2): enhanced vegetation index (EVI) annual mean (A); Enhanced vegetation index—range (B); annual monthly maximum precipitation (C); annual monthly minimum precipitation (D); temperature suitability (E); urban areas (F); peri-urban areas (G).
Figure 1—figure supplement 2
Set of covariate layers used to predict the ecological niche of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus described in detail in the ‘Materials and methods’ section; (A) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) annual mean, (B) EVI annual range, (C) annual monthly maximum precipitation, (D) annual monthly minimum precipitation, (E) temperature suitability for Ae. albopictus, (F) temperature suitability for Ae. aegypti, (G) rural, peri-urban and urban classification layer.
Figure 1—figure supplement 3
Visualization of pixel level uncertainty calculated using the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals associated with the prediction maps for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B).
Figure 1—figure supplement 4
The distribution of the occurrence database for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B) plotted on the underlying prediction surface.
Global map of the predicted distribution of Ae. albopictus.

The map depicts the probability of occurrence (from 0 blue to 1 red) at a spatial resolution of 5 km × 5 km.

Predicted probability of occurrence of Ae. albopictus in Europe (A) and the United States (B), regions in which Ae. albopictus is rapidly expanding its range.

Points represent known occurrences (transient [triangles] or established [circles]) until the end of 2013.



Table 1

The geographic distribution of spatially unique occurrence records for the Americas, Europe/Africa, and Asia/Oceania

Ae. aegypti
Cuba177United Republic of Tanzania44India423
Argentina170Côte d'Ivoire40Australia282
Trinidad and Tobago152Nigeria35Viet Nam223
Puerto Rico120Mayotte20Philippines36
Peru89Sierra Leone20Cambodia29
Ae. albopictus
Cayman Islands15France37India150
Colombia3Greece18Lao People's Democratic Republic26
Puerto Rico3Lebanon15Viet Nam18
  1. Top 10 countries in terms of occurrence records for each continent are shown for Ae. aegypti (a) and Ae. albopictus (b).

Table 2

Relative contribution of environmental covariates predicting the global distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus

Mean contribution Ae. aegypti (%)95% confidence interval Ae. aegypti (%)Mean contribution Ae. albopictus (%)95% confidence interval Ae. albopictus (%)
Temperature suitability54.953.7–5644.342.7–45.6
Maximum precipitation13.612.6–14.613.912.7–14.9
Enhanced vegetation index(mean)12.111.3–12.915.314.5–16.3
Minimum precipitation9.18.5–1016.115.2–16.9
Enhanced vegetation index (range)8.37.7–99.18.3–10.1

Additional files

Supplementary file 1

List of contributors and their affiliation from TigerMaps & VBORNET for Ae. albopictus presence records in Europe.


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