1. Ecology
  2. Epidemiology and Global Health
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The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

  1. Moritz UG Kraemer Is a corresponding author
  2. Marianne E Sinka
  3. Kirsten A Duda
  4. Adrian QN Mylne
  5. Freya M Shearer
  6. Christopher M Barker
  7. Chester G Moore
  8. Roberta G Carvalho
  9. Giovanini E Coelho
  10. Wim Van Bortel
  11. Guy Hendrickx
  12. Francis Schaffner
  13. Iqbal RF Elyazar
  14. Hwa-Jen Teng
  15. Oliver J Brady
  16. Jane P Messina
  17. David M Pigott
  18. Thomas W Scott
  19. David L Smith
  20. GR William Wint
  21. Nick Golding
  22. Simon I Hay Is a corresponding author
  1. University of Oxford, United Kingdom
  2. University of California, Davis, United States
  3. Colorado State University, United States
  4. Ministry of Health, Brazil
  5. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Sweden
  6. Avia-GIS, Belgium
  7. Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Indonesia
  8. Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan
  9. National Institutes of Health, United States
  10. Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, United States
  11. University of Washington, United States
Research Article
Cite as: eLife 2015;4:e08347 doi: 10.7554/eLife.08347
3 figures, 2 tables, 1 data set and 1 additional file

Figures

Figure 1 with 4 supplements
Global map of the predicted distribution of Ae. aegypti.

The map depicts the probability of occurrence (from 0 blue to 1 red) at a spatial resolution of 5 km × 5 km.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.004
Figure 1—figure supplement 1
Effect plots of covariates used in this study showing the marginal effect of each covariate on probability of presence for Ae. aegypti (1) and Ae. albopictus (2): enhanced vegetation index (EVI) annual mean (A); Enhanced vegetation index—range (B); annual monthly maximum precipitation (C); annual monthly minimum precipitation (D); temperature suitability (E); urban areas (F); peri-urban areas (G).
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.005
Figure 1—figure supplement 2
Set of covariate layers used to predict the ecological niche of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus described in detail in the ‘Materials and methods’ section; (A) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) annual mean, (B) EVI annual range, (C) annual monthly maximum precipitation, (D) annual monthly minimum precipitation, (E) temperature suitability for Ae. albopictus, (F) temperature suitability for Ae. aegypti, (G) rural, peri-urban and urban classification layer.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.006
Figure 1—figure supplement 3
Visualization of pixel level uncertainty calculated using the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals associated with the prediction maps for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B).
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.007
Figure 1—figure supplement 4
The distribution of the occurrence database for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B) plotted on the underlying prediction surface.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.008
Global map of the predicted distribution of Ae. albopictus.

The map depicts the probability of occurrence (from 0 blue to 1 red) at a spatial resolution of 5 km × 5 km.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.009
Predicted probability of occurrence of Ae. albopictus in Europe (A) and the United States (B), regions in which Ae. albopictus is rapidly expanding its range.

Points represent known occurrences (transient [triangles] or established [circles]) until the end of 2013.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.010

Tables

Table 1

The geographic distribution of spatially unique occurrence records for the Americas, Europe/Africa, and Asia/Oceania

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.003
CountryOccurrencesCountryOccurrencesCountryOccurrences
Ae. aegypti
AmericasBrazil5,044Europe/AfricaSenegal112Asia/OceaniaTaiwan9,490
USA436Cameroon55Indonesia603
Mexico411Kenya52Thailand495
Cuba177United Republic of Tanzania44India423
Argentina170Côte d'Ivoire40Australia282
Trinidad and Tobago152Nigeria35Viet Nam223
Venezuela130Madagascar28Malaysia112
Colombia128Gabon27Singapore44
Puerto Rico120Mayotte20Philippines36
Peru89Sierra Leone20Cambodia29
Ae. albopictus
AmericasBrazil3,441Europe/AfricaItaly203Asia/OceaniaTaiwan15,339
USA1,594Madagascar58Malaysia186
Mexico50Cameroon42Indonesia161
Cayman Islands15France37India150
Haiti13Gabon27Japan97
Guatemala12Albania22Thailand82
Venezuela7Mayotte21Singapore44
Colombia3Greece18Lao People's Democratic Republic26
Cuba3Israel17Philippines22
Puerto Rico3Lebanon15Viet Nam18
  1. Top 10 countries in terms of occurrence records for each continent are shown for Ae. aegypti (a) and Ae. albopictus (b).

Table 2

Relative contribution of environmental covariates predicting the global distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.011
Mean contribution Ae. aegypti (%)95% confidence interval Ae. aegypti (%)Mean contribution Ae. albopictus (%)95% confidence interval Ae. albopictus (%)
Temperature suitability54.953.7–5644.342.7–45.6
Maximum precipitation13.612.6–14.613.912.7–14.9
Enhanced vegetation index(mean)12.111.3–12.915.314.5–16.3
Minimum precipitation9.18.5–1016.115.2–16.9
Enhanced vegetation index (range)8.37.7–99.18.3–10.1
Urbanicity21.3–2.41.10.7–1.7

Data sets

The following data sets were generated
  1. 1

Additional files

Supplementary file 1

List of contributors and their affiliation from TigerMaps & VBORNET for Ae. albopictus presence records in Europe.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.012

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