The uniform shape of the histogram shows that predictions at sites held out from the initial model drawn from the predicted posterior distribution for the prevalence of febrile illness matched well.
Predictions are shown within the limits of stable P. falciparum transmission.
Plotted values are the population-weighted mean for 43 sub-Saharan African countries over the study period, 2006–2014. Countries have been grouped by region to improve clarity.
(a) shows this relationship in children under five years of age, and (b) disaggregated into children under 2 years of age, and children aged 2–4 years. The probability of MAF in the past two weeks …
(a) Response data relationship between all-cause fever (black line) and malaria-positive fevers (blue line), and predicted incidence (symptomatic illness) for the duration of the past two to four …
NMFI prevalence is defined as the sum of the prevalence of febrile illness without a P. falciparum malaria infection and the prevalence of febrile illness coincident with, but not caused by, a P. …
Pf pos. | Pf neg. | |
---|---|---|
Febrile | ||
Afebrile |
Yearly population-weighted percentages for all-cause fever prevalence, and malaria-attributable fever, malaria-positive fever, and non-malarial febrile illness within all-cause fever amongst population at risk in children under 5 years of age in malaria-endemic Africa, 2006–2014.
Household survey data used in analysis.
Covariates used in BRT, listed by contribution to the final model.
Model parameters and credible intervals of the final multinomial model; final model coefficients.
National breakdown of contribution of NMFI, MAF and MCF (malaria-coincident fever) to all-cause fever in 2014.
NMFI is represented here as a fever without a patent malaria infection, MCF as a fever with a patent malaria infection where the fever is caused by a co-infection with an NMFI, and MAF where the malaria infection is the sole cause of the individual's fever. This file is supplementary to Figure 5.