Case fatality rates in severe falciparum malaria depend on the pattern and degree of vital organ dysfunction. Recent large-scale case-control analyses of pooled severe malaria data reported that glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) was protective against cerebral malaria but increased the risk of severe malarial anaemia. A novel formulation of the balancing selection hypothesis was proposed as an explanation for these findings, whereby the selective advantage is driven by the competing risks of death from cerebral malaria and death from severe malarial anaemia. We re-analysed these claims using causal diagrams and showed that they are subject to collider bias. A simulation based sensitivity analysis, varying the strength of the known effect of G6PDd on anaemia, showed that this bias is sufficient to explain all of the observed association. Future genetic epidemiology studies in severe malaria would benefit from the use of causal reasoning.
- James A Watson
- Nicholas PJ Day
- Arjen M Dondorp
- Nicholas J White
- Julie A Simpson
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
- Marc Lipsitch, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, United States
© 2019, Watson et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
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Tanzanian adult male volunteers were immunized by direct venous inoculation with radiation-attenuated, aseptic, purified, cryopreserved Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoites (PfSPZ Vaccine) and protective efficacy assessed by homologous controlled human malaria infection (CHMI). Serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses were analyzed longitudinally using a Pf protein microarray covering 91% of the proteome, providing first insights into naturally acquired and PfSPZ Vaccine-induced whole parasite antibody profiles in malaria pre-exposed Africans. Immunoreactivity was identified against 2239 functionally diverse Pf proteins, showing a wide breadth of humoral response. Antibody-based immune ‘fingerprints’ in these individuals indicated a strong person-specific immune response at baseline, with little changes in the overall humoral immunoreactivity pattern measured after immunization. The moderate increase in immunogenicity following immunization and the extensive and variable breadth of humoral immune response observed in the volunteers at baseline suggest that pre-exposure reduces vaccine-induced antigen reactivity in unanticipated ways.
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