Mapping imported malaria in Bangladesh using parasite genetic and human mobility data

  1. Hsiao-Han Chang
  2. Amy Wesolowski
  3. Ipsita Sinha
  4. Christopher G Jacob
  5. Ayesha Mahmud
  6. Didar Uddin
  7. Sazid Ibna Zaman
  8. Md Amir Hossain
  9. M Abul Faiz
  10. Aniruddha Ghose
  11. Abdullah Abu Sayeed
  12. M Ridwanur Rahman
  13. Akramul Islam
  14. Mohammad Jahirul Karim
  15. M Kamar Rezwan
  16. Abul Khair Mohammad Shamsuzzaman
  17. Sanya Tahmina Jhora
  18. M M Aktaruzzaman
  19. Eleanor Drury
  20. Sonia Gonçalves
  21. Mihir Kekre
  22. Mehul Dhorda
  23. Ranitha Vongpromek
  24. Olivo Miotto
  25. Kenth Engø-Monsen
  26. Dominic Kwiatkowski
  27. Richard J Maude
  28. Caroline Buckee  Is a corresponding author
  1. Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, United States
  2. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, United States
  3. Mahidol University, Thailand
  4. Wellcome Sanger Institute, United Kingdom
  5. Chittagong Medical College, Bangladesh
  6. Chittagong Medical College Hospital, Bangladesh
  7. Shaheed Suhrawardy Medical College, Bangladesh
  8. BRAC Centre, Bangladesh
  9. National Malaria Elimination Programme, Bangladesh
  10. World Health Organization, Bangladesh
  11. Directorate General of Health Services, Bangladesh
  12. The WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN), Thailand
  13. Telenor Group, Norway

Abstract

For countries aiming for malaria elimination, travel of infected individuals between endemic areas undermines local interventions. Quantifying parasite importation has therefore become a priority for national control programs. We analyzed epidemiological surveillance data, travel surveys, parasite genetic data, and anonymized mobile phone data to measure the spatial spread of malaria parasites in southeast Bangladesh. We developed a genetic mixing index to estimate the likelihood of samples being local or imported from parasite genetic data and inferred the direction and intensity of parasite flow between locations using an epidemiological model integrating the travel survey and mobile phone calling data. Our approach indicates that, contrary to dogma, frequent mixing occurs in low transmission regions in the southwest, and elimination will require interventions in addition to reducing imported infections from forested regions. Unlike risk maps generated from clinical case counts alone, therefore, our approach distinguishes areas of frequent importation as well as high transmission.

Data availability

All genetic data are included in Supplementary file 4 and all travel matrices are included in Supplementary file 5.

Article and author information

Author details

  1. Hsiao-Han Chang

    Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  2. Amy Wesolowski

    Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0001-6320-3575
  3. Ipsita Sinha

    Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-6574-310X
  4. Christopher G Jacob

    Malaria Programme, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  5. Ayesha Mahmud

    Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  6. Didar Uddin

    Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  7. Sazid Ibna Zaman

    Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  8. Md Amir Hossain

    Department of Medicine, Chittagong Medical College, Chittagong, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  9. M Abul Faiz

    Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  10. Aniruddha Ghose

    Chittagong Medical College Hospital, Chittagong, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  11. Abdullah Abu Sayeed

    Chittagong Medical College Hospital, Chittagong, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  12. M Ridwanur Rahman

    Shaheed Suhrawardy Medical College, Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  13. Akramul Islam

    BRAC Centre, Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  14. Mohammad Jahirul Karim

    National Malaria Elimination Programme, Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  15. M Kamar Rezwan

    Vector-Borne Disease Control, World Health Organization, Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  16. Abul Khair Mohammad Shamsuzzaman

    Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  17. Sanya Tahmina Jhora

    Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  18. M M Aktaruzzaman

    National Malaria Elimination Programme, Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  19. Eleanor Drury

    Malaria Programme, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  20. Sonia Gonçalves

    Malaria Programme, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  21. Mihir Kekre

    Malaria Programme, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  22. Mehul Dhorda

    Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  23. Ranitha Vongpromek

    The WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN), Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  24. Olivo Miotto

    Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  25. Kenth Engø-Monsen

    Telenor Research, Telenor Group, Fornebu, Norway
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0003-1618-7597
  26. Dominic Kwiatkowski

    Malaria Programme, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  27. Richard J Maude

    Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  28. Caroline Buckee

    Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States
    For correspondence
    cbuckee@hsph.harvard.edu
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-8386-5899

Funding

National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U54GM088558)

  • Hsiao-Han Chang

Burroughs Wellcome Fund

  • Amy Wesolowski

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (CPT000390)

  • Ipsita Sinha
  • Sazid Ibna Zaman
  • Richard J Maude

Medical Research Council (G0600718)

  • Christopher G Jacob
  • Eleanor Drury
  • Sonia Gonçalves
  • Mihir Kekre
  • Dominic Kwiatkowski

National Institute of General Medical Sciences (R35GM124715-02)

  • Caroline Buckee

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1118166)

  • Christopher G Jacob
  • Olivo Miotto
  • Caroline Buckee

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1129596)

  • Ipsita Sinha
  • Sazid Ibna Zaman
  • Richard J Maude

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.

Reviewing Editor

  1. Neil M Ferguson, Imperial College London, United Kingdom

Publication history

  1. Received: November 9, 2018
  2. Accepted: March 14, 2019
  3. Accepted Manuscript published: April 2, 2019 (version 1)
  4. Version of Record published: April 23, 2019 (version 2)

Copyright

© 2019, Chang et al.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

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  1. Hsiao-Han Chang
  2. Amy Wesolowski
  3. Ipsita Sinha
  4. Christopher G Jacob
  5. Ayesha Mahmud
  6. Didar Uddin
  7. Sazid Ibna Zaman
  8. Md Amir Hossain
  9. M Abul Faiz
  10. Aniruddha Ghose
  11. Abdullah Abu Sayeed
  12. M Ridwanur Rahman
  13. Akramul Islam
  14. Mohammad Jahirul Karim
  15. M Kamar Rezwan
  16. Abul Khair Mohammad Shamsuzzaman
  17. Sanya Tahmina Jhora
  18. M M Aktaruzzaman
  19. Eleanor Drury
  20. Sonia Gonçalves
  21. Mihir Kekre
  22. Mehul Dhorda
  23. Ranitha Vongpromek
  24. Olivo Miotto
  25. Kenth Engø-Monsen
  26. Dominic Kwiatkowski
  27. Richard J Maude
  28. Caroline Buckee
(2019)
Mapping imported malaria in Bangladesh using parasite genetic and human mobility data
eLife 8:e43481.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.43481

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