Left column: mean effective reproduction number over time, as estimated by the model under the 'current' vaccination program and under different coverage scenarios for the 'parental vaccination' program. Shaded areas represent the 95% CI associated with the model estimates. The red line represents the measles elimination threshold; elimination is achieved when the effective reproductive number is smaller than 1. Right column: probability associated with different time at measles elimination, as obtained from 1000 model realizations under the 'current' vaccination program and under different coverage scenarios for 'parental vaccination'. For each vaccination scenario, the effective reproduction number in the year 2017 was computed by accounting for two distinct infectivity phases, prodromal and exanthema, and by assuming that the latter contributes to a fraction k of secondary cases. Different rows correspond to different scenarios for the value of k: 10%, 50%, or 90%.