Determinants of MDA impact and designing MDAs towards malaria elimination

  1. Bo Gao
  2. Sompob Saralamba
  3. Yoel Lubell
  4. Lisa J White
  5. Arjen M Dondorp
  6. Ricardo Aguas  Is a corresponding author
  1. University of Oxford, United Kingdom
  2. Mahidol University, Thailand

Abstract

Malaria remains at the forefront of scientific research and global political and funding agendas. Malaria models have consistently oversimplified how mass interventions are implemented. Here, we present an individual based, spatially explicit model of P. falciparum malaria transmission that includes all the programmatic implementation details of mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns. We uncover how the impact of MDA campaigns is determined by the interaction between implementation logistics, patterns of human mobility and how transmission risk is distributed over space. Our results indicate that malaria elimination is only realistically achievable in settings with very low prevalence and can be hindered by spatial heterogeneities in risk. In highly mobile populations, accelerating MDA implementation increases likelihood of elimination; if populations are more static, deploying less teams would be cost optimal. We conclude that mass drug interventions can be an invaluable tool towards malaria elimination in low endemicity areas, specifically when paired with effective vector control.

Data availability

The study presented here is purely theoretical and no data has been used apart from previously (and publicly available) data

Article and author information

Author details

  1. Bo Gao

    Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  2. Sompob Saralamba

    Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  3. Yoel Lubell

    Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  4. Lisa J White

    Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  5. Arjen M Dondorp

    Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0001-5190-2395
  6. Ricardo Aguas

    Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    For correspondence
    ricardo@tropmedres.ac
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-6507-6597

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1110500)

  • Sompob Saralamba
  • Yoel Lubell
  • Lisa J White
  • Ricardo Aguas

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1193472)

  • Bo Gao
  • Ricardo Aguas

Wellcome

  • Yoel Lubell
  • Lisa J White
  • Arjen M Dondorp

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.

Copyright

© 2020, Gao et al.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

Metrics

  • 1,338
    views
  • 156
    downloads
  • 26
    citations

Views, downloads and citations are aggregated across all versions of this paper published by eLife.

Download links

A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)

Cite this article (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

  1. Bo Gao
  2. Sompob Saralamba
  3. Yoel Lubell
  4. Lisa J White
  5. Arjen M Dondorp
  6. Ricardo Aguas
(2020)
Determinants of MDA impact and designing MDAs towards malaria elimination
eLife 9:e51773.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.51773

Share this article

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.51773

Further reading

    1. Epidemiology and Global Health
    2. Genetics and Genomics
    Wei Q Deng, Nathan Cawte ... Sonia S Anand
    Research Article

    Background:

    Maternal smoking has been linked to adverse health outcomes in newborns but the extent to which it impacts newborn health has not been quantified through an aggregated cord blood DNA methylation (DNAm) score. Here, we examine the feasibility of using cord blood DNAm scores leveraging large external studies as discovery samples to capture the epigenetic signature of maternal smoking and its influence on newborns in White European and South Asian populations.

    Methods:

    We first examined the association between individual CpGs and cigarette smoking during pregnancy, and smoking exposure in two White European birth cohorts (n=744). Leveraging established CpGs for maternal smoking, we constructed a cord blood epigenetic score of maternal smoking that was validated in one of the European-origin cohorts (n=347). This score was then tested for association with smoking status, secondary smoking exposure during pregnancy, and health outcomes in offspring measured after birth in an independent White European (n=397) and a South Asian birth cohort (n=504).

    Results:

    Several previously reported genes for maternal smoking were supported, with the strongest and most consistent association signal from the GFI1 gene (6 CpGs with p<5 × 10-5). The epigenetic maternal smoking score was strongly associated with smoking status during pregnancy (OR = 1.09 [1.07, 1.10], p=5.5 × 10-33) and more hours of self-reported smoking exposure per week (1.93 [1.27, 2.58], p=7.8 × 10-9) in White Europeans. However, it was not associated with self-reported exposure (p>0.05) among South Asians, likely due to a lack of smoking in this group. The same score was consistently associated with a smaller birth size (–0.37±0.12 cm, p=0.0023) in the South Asian cohort and a lower birth weight (–0.043±0.013 kg, p=0.0011) in the combined cohorts.

    Conclusions:

    This cord blood epigenetic score can help identify babies exposed to maternal smoking and assess its long-term impact on growth. Notably, these results indicate a consistent association between the DNAm signature of maternal smoking and a small body size and low birth weight in newborns, in both White European mothers who exhibited some amount of smoking and in South Asian mothers who themselves were not active smokers.

    Funding:

    This study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research Metabolomics Team Grant: MWG-146332.

    1. Epidemiology and Global Health
    2. Microbiology and Infectious Disease
    Patrick E Brown, Sze Hang Fu ... Ab-C Study Collaborators
    Research Article Updated

    Background:

    Few national-level studies have evaluated the impact of ‘hybrid’ immunity (vaccination coupled with recovery from infection) from the Omicron variants of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

    Methods:

    From May 2020 to December 2022, we conducted serial assessments (each of ~4000–9000 adults) examining SARS-CoV-2 antibodies within a mostly representative Canadian cohort drawn from a national online polling platform. Adults, most of whom were vaccinated, reported viral test-confirmed infections and mailed self-collected dried blood spots (DBSs) to a central lab. Samples underwent highly sensitive and specific antibody assays to spike and nucleocapsid protein antigens, the latter triggered only by infection. We estimated cumulative SARS-CoV-2 incidence prior to the Omicron period and during the BA.1/1.1 and BA.2/5 waves. We assessed changes in antibody levels and in age-specific active immunity levels.

    Results:

    Spike levels were higher in infected than in uninfected adults, regardless of vaccination doses. Among adults vaccinated at least thrice and infected more than 6 months earlier, spike levels fell notably and continuously for the 9-month post-vaccination. In contrast, among adults infected within 6 months, spike levels declined gradually. Declines were similar by sex, age group, and ethnicity. Recent vaccination attenuated declines in spike levels from older infections. In a convenience sample, spike antibody and cellular responses were correlated. Near the end of 2022, about 35% of adults above age 60 had their last vaccine dose more than 6 months ago, and about 25% remained uninfected. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection rose from 13% (95% confidence interval 11–14%) before omicron to 78% (76–80%) by December 2022, equating to 25 million infected adults cumulatively. However, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) weekly death rate during the BA.2/5 waves was less than half of that during the BA.1/1.1 wave, implying a protective role for hybrid immunity.

    Conclusions:

    Strategies to maintain population-level hybrid immunity require up-to-date vaccination coverage, including among those recovering from infection. Population-based, self-collected DBSs are a practicable biological surveillance platform.

    Funding:

    Funding was provided by the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Pfizer Global Medical Grants, and St. Michael’s Hospital Foundation. PJ and ACG are funded by the Canada Research Chairs Program.