Executive Resources Shape the Impact of Language Predictability Across the Adult Lifespan

Reviewer #1 (Public review):

This manuscript reports a dual-task experiment intended to test whether language prediction relies on executive resources, using surprisal-based measures of predictability and an n-back task to manipulate cognitive load. While the study addresses a question under debate, the current design and modeling framework fall short of supporting the central claims. Key components of cognitive load, such as task switching, word prediction vs integration, are not adequately modeled. Moreover, the weak consistency in replication undermines the robustness of the reported findings. Below unpacks each point.

Cognitive load is a broad term. In the present study, it can be at least decomposed into the following components:

(1) Working memory (WM) load: news, color, and rank.

(2) Task switching load: domain of attention (color vs semantics), sensorimotor rules (c/m vs space).

(3) Word comprehension load (hypothesized against): prediction, integration.

The components of task switching load should be directly included in the statistical models. Switching of sensorimotor rules may be captured by the "n-back reaction" (binary) predictor. However, the switching of attended domains and the interaction between domain switching and rule complexity (1-back or 2-back) were not included. The attention control experiment (1) avoided useful statistical variation from the Read Only task, and (2) did not address interactions. More fundamentally, task-switching components should be directly modeled in both performance and full RT models to minimize selection bias. This principle also applies to other confounding factors, such as education level. While missing these important predictors, the current models have an abundance of predictors that are not so well motivated (see later comments). In sum, with the current models, one cannot determine whether the reduced performance or prolonged RT was due to affecting word prediction load (if it exists) or merely affecting the task switching load.

The entropy and surprisal need to be more clearly interpreted and modeled in the context of the word comprehension process. The entropy concerns the "prediction" part of the word comprehension (before seeing the next word), whereas surprisal concerns the "integration" part as a posterior. This interpretation is similar to the authors writing in the Introduction that "Graded language predictions necessitate the active generation of hypotheses on upcoming words as well as the integration of prediction errors to inform future predictions [1,5]." However, the Results of this study largely ignored entropy (treating it as a fixed effect) and only focus on surprisal without clear justification.

In Table S3, with original and replicated model fitting results, the only consistent interaction is surprisal x age x cognitive load [2-back vs. Reading Only]. None of the two-way interactions can be replicated. This is puzzling and undermines the robustness of the main claims of this paper.

Reviewer #2 (Public review):

Summary:

This paper considers the effects of cognitive load (using an n-back task related to font color), predictability, and age on reading times in two experiments. There were main effects of all predictors, but more interesting effects of load and age on predictability. The effect of load is very interesting, but the manipulation of age is problematic, because we don't know what is predictable for different participants (in relation to their age). There are some theoretical concerns about prediction and predictability, and a need to address literature (reading time, visual world, ERP studies).

Strengths/weaknesses

It is important to be clear that predictability is not the same as prediction. A predictable word is processed faster than an unpredictable word (something that has been known since the 1970/80s), e.g., Rayner, Schwanenfluegel, etc. But this could be due to ease of integration. I think this issue can probably be dealt with by careful writing (see point on line 18 below). To be clear, I do not believe that the effects reported here are due to integration alone (i.e., that nothing happens before the target word), but the evidence for this claim must come from actual demonstrations of prediction.

The effect of load on the effects of predictability is very interesting (and also, I note that the fairly novel way of assessing load is itself valuable). Assuming that the experiments do measure prediction, it suggests that they are not cost-free, as is sometimes assumed. I think the researchers need to look closely at the visual world literature, most particularly the work of Huettig. (There is an isolated reference to Ito et al., but this is one of a large and highly relevant set of papers.)

There is a major concern about the effects of age. See the Results (161-5): this depends on what is meant by word predictability. It's correct if it means the predictability in the corpus. But it may or may not be correct if it refers to how predictable a word is to an individual participant. The texts are unlikely to be equally predictable to different participants, and in particular to younger vs. older participants, because of their different experiences. To put it informally, the newspaper articles may be more geared to the expectations of younger people. But there is also another problem: the LLM may have learned on the basis of language that has largely been produced by young people, and so its predictions are based on what young people are likely to say. Both of these possibilities strike me as extremely likely. So it may be that older adults are affected more by words that they find surprising, but it is also possible that the texts are not what they expect, or the LLM predictions from the text are not the ones that they would make. In sum, I am not convinced that the authors can say anything about the effects of age unless they can determine what is predictable for different ages of participants. I suspect that this failure to control is an endemic problem in the literature on aging and language processing and needs to be systematically addressed.

Overall, I think the paper makes enough of a contribution with respect to load to be useful to the literature. But for discussion of age, we would need something like evidence of how younger and older adults would complete these texts (on a word-by-word basis) and that they were equally predictable for different ages. I assume there are ways to get LLMs to emulate different participant groups, but I doubt that we could be confident about their accuracy without a lot of testing. But without something like this, I think making claims about age would be quite misleading.

Author response:

Reviewer #1 (Public review):

Cognitive Load and Task-Switching Components:

We agree that cognitive load is multi-faceted and encompasses dimensions not fully captured in our present models, including domain and rule switching. For the revision, we will explicitly model these components in the statistical analyses by incorporating predictors reflecting attended domain switching and rule complexity, as suggested. We will also explain our inclusion of n-back reaction predictors and justify their relationship with theoretical constructs of executive function. Full details of coding schemes will be provided.

Modeling Entropy and Surprisal:

We appreciate the reviewer’s suggestion to further explain the distinction between entropy (predictive uncertainty) and surprisal (integration difficulty), and acknowledge that our treatment of entropy warrants extension. In the revision, we will expand the results and discussion on entropy, providing clearer theoretical motivation for its inclusion and conducting supplementary analyses to examine its role alongside surprisal.

Replicability of Findings:

We note the concern regarding two-way vs. three-way interactions in model replication. In the revised manuscript, we will report robustness analyses on subsets of our data (e.g., matched age and education groups), clarify degrees of freedom and group sizes, and transparently report any discrepancies.

Predictors and Statistical Modeling:

We will add clarifications on predictor selection, data structure, and rationale for model hierarchy. The functions of d-prime, comprehension accuracy, and performance modeling will be described in more detail, including discussion of block-level vs. participant-level effects.

Reviewer #2 (Public review):

Distinction Between Prediction and Predictability:

We recognize the importance of clearly communicating the difference between prediction and predictability, as well as integration-based vs. prediction-based effects. We will clarify these distinctions throughout the introduction, methods, and discussion sections, citing the relevant theoretical literature (e.g., Pickering & Gambi 2018; Federmeier 2007; Staub 2015; Frisson 2017).

Aging, Corpus Predictability, and Individual Differences:

We appreciate the critical point regarding age, corpus-based predictability, and potential cohort effects in language model estimates. In the revision, we will provide conceptual clarifications on how surprisal and entropy might differ for different age groups and discuss limitations in extrapolating these metrics to participant-specific predictions. The limitations inherent in relying on LLM-derived estimates and text materials will be more directly addressed.

Coverage of Literature and Paradigms:

We will broaden the literature review as requested, particularly on the N400 effects and behavioral traditions in prediction research. These additions should help contextualize the present work within both neuroscience and psycholinguistics.

Experimental Context and Predictability Metrics:

We will address concerns regarding the context window for prediction estimation, describing more precisely how context was defined and whether broader textual cues may improve predictability metrics.

References

Pickering, M.J. & Gambi, C. (2018). Predicting while comprehending language: A theory and review. Psychol. Bull., 144(10), 1002–1044.

Federmeier, K.D. (2007). Thinking ahead: The role and roots of prediction in language comprehension. Psychophysiology, 44(4), 491–505.

Frisson, S. (2017). Can prediction explain the lexical processing advantage for short words? J. Mem. Lang., 95, 121–138.\

Staub, A. (2015). The effect of lexical predictability on eye movements in reading: Critical review and theoretical interpretation. Lang. Linguist. Compass, 9(8), 311–327.Huettig, F. & Mani, N. (2016). Is prediction necessary to understand language? Probably not. Trends Cogn. Sci., 20(10), 484–492.We appreciate the reviewers’ constructive comments and believe their suggestions will meaningfully strengthen the paper. Our planned revisions will address each of the above points with additional analyses, clarifications, and expanded discussion.