Serial Dependence Predicts Generalization in Perceptual Learning

Reviewer #1 (Public review):

This paper presents a reanalysis of a large existing dataset to examine whether serial dependence effects-systematic influences of recent stimulus history on current perceptual judgments-are associated with generalization in perceptual learning. The central hypothesis is that extended, longer-range history effects (beyond the most recent trials) are beneficial for transfer across locations. The authors reanalyze data from a texture discrimination task in which observers discriminated peripheral target orientation against a line background, with performance quantified by stimulus-onset asynchrony thresholds. Three training conditions were compared: a fixed single-location condition, a two-location alternating condition, and a dummy-trial condition with frequent target-absent trials. Transfer was assessed after training at new locations. Serial dependence was quantified using history-sequence analyses and linear mixed-effects models estimating bias weights across stimulus lags, with summary measures distinguishing recent (1-3 trials back) and more distant (4-6 trials back) dependencies.

The authors report extended serial dependence effects, persisting up to 6-10 trials back, with substantial cumulative bias that remains stable across multiple days of training and is not correlated with overall performance thresholds. Recent history effects are stronger for faster responses, suggesting a contribution from decision- or response-related processes, whereas more distant effects decline within sessions, potentially reflecting adaptation dynamics. Critically, longer-range serial dependence is significantly stronger in training conditions that promote generalization than in the single-location condition. Individual differences in the strength and decay profile of distant history effects predict the magnitude of transfer across locations, whereas recent history effects do not. History effects are also correlated across trained locations, suggesting stable individual differences.

The authors interpret longer-range serial dependence as reflecting integrative processes that extract task-relevant structure over time, thereby supporting generalization, while shorter-range effects are attributed to more transient mechanisms such as priming or decision-level bias. The discussion connects these findings to Bayesian accounts of perceptual stability and to concepts of overfitting in machine learning.

The study offers a novel and thoughtful link between short-term serial dependence and long-term generalization in perceptual learning, helping bridge two literatures that are often treated separately. The large dataset enables robust estimation of individual differences, and the use of mixed-effects modeling appropriately accounts for variability across observers. The empirical distinction between recent and more distant history effects is well-supported and adds important nuance to interpretations of serial dependence. Converging evidence from both group-level comparisons and individual-level correlations strengthens the central conclusions.

Several limitations should be addressed. First, the study relies entirely on previously collected data, without experimental manipulations designed to selectively isolate serial dependence mechanisms. Filtering choices, while theoretically motivated, may amplify history effects in ways that are difficult to quantify. Second, sequential dependencies can arise from multiple sources, including gradual updating of internal weight structures, adaptation processes, and history-dependent biases in decision-making. The current analyses do not clearly separate these contributions, limiting mechanistic attribution of long-range effects. Third, the conclusions are based on a single perceptual task, leaving open questions about generality across paradigms. Finally, while the discussion references computational ideas, no explicit modeling is provided to test whether plausible learning rules can jointly account for the observed history profiles and transfer effects.

The findings align with theoretical frameworks that conceptualize perceptual learning as gradual reweighting of stable sensory representations at the decision stage (e.g., Petrov et al., 2005). Trial-by-trial updates in these models naturally give rise to sequential dependencies and sensitivity to training statistics. The observation that longer-range history effects predict generalization is consistent with broader temporal integration supporting more flexible learning, while narrower integration may lead to specificity. The results also indicate that multiple mechanisms - including decision-level biases and adaptation - may coexist with reweighting processes, highlighting the value of hybrid accounts.

In summary, this is a careful and data-rich reanalysis that highlights a potentially important role for serial dependence in enabling generalization during perceptual learning. While the underlying mechanisms remain underspecified, the evidence supporting the reported associations is strong, and the work provides a valuable empirical foundation for further experimental and modeling efforts.

Reviewer #2 (Public review):

This manuscript investigates how people's perceptual reports are influenced by events and trials in the past, and how this long-range dependence relates to broader learning across locations in a visual learning task. The authors present clear and internally consistent analyses showing that extended temporal integration is associated with greater generalization of learning. The study is thought-provoking and may contribute meaningfully to understanding how short-term influences and long-term improvement interact, although several interpretational points would benefit from clarification.

Strengths:

(1) The manuscript identifies unusually long-range perceptual biases extending up to ten trials back, which is a striking and potentially important finding.

(2) The association between strong long-range dependence and greater learning generalization is clearly documented and supported by consistent analyses.

(3) The dataset is large and rich, and the authors apply repeated and well-controlled analyses that give confidence in the stability of the effects.

(4) The writing is generally clear, and the manuscript raises interesting conceptual links between temporal integration and generalization of learning.

Weaknesses / Points Requiring Clarification:

(1) The manuscript repeatedly equates generalization with increased efficiency, but this relationship is not universally true. In some populations or tasks, excessive generalization can reduce task-specific efficiency. The authors should discuss this context-dependence to clarify when generalization is beneficial versus detrimental.

(2) Serial dependence is also present, though smaller, in the central fixation task. It remains unclear whether this bias could contribute to the serial dependence observed in the main task. The authors should clarify whether the two biases are independent or whether the central-task bias might partially influence orientation judgments in the main task.

(3) Several figure captions and labels contain minor inconsistencies in formatting and terminology. Careful proofreading would improve clarity.

Reviewer #3 (Public review):

This reanalysis of a classic study of visual perceptual learning in a texture discrimination task convincingly demonstrates the presence of sequential dependence effects, commonly seen in response time analyses in 2-alternative tasks, on response accuracy in the texture task in the visual periphery and in a simultaneous central letter report at fixation. Overall, this paper provides a new and interesting analysis of the effects of sequential dependencies from trial to trial on performance, learning, and generalizability in perceptual learning.

Strengths:

This new analysis of sequential dependency effects (SDEs) extends commonly observed sequential effects in two-choice reaction times to accuracy and relates them to response accuracy during visual learning in a frequently used perceptual learning task. The paper makes a convincing case that different conditions known to impact generalization of learning to a second visual location also express quantitatively distinct n-back SDEs.

Weaknesses:

Most of the new analyses emphasize the effects of SDEs, including trials designed to enhance the size of the effects, specifically when the current trial is low visibility, and the prior trial is of high visibility. Unless there is an argument that learning and subsequent generalization primarily occur in low-visibility trials, the presentation should also include displays and an emphasized discussion of analysis for all trials, unfiltered.