A micro-epidemiological analysis of febrile malaria in Coastal Kenya showing hotspots within hotspots
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kenya
- University of Oxford, United Kingdom
- Imperial College London, United Kingdom
- University of California, San Francisco, United States
- Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Netherlands
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom
- John Hopkins Malaria Research Institute, United States
- Institute for Tropical Medicine, University of Tübingen, Germany
- German Centre for Infection Research, Germany
Figures
Figure 1 with 3 supplements
Geographical distribution of malaria positive fraction and average age of febrile malaria.
Each plotted point represents an individual homestead, where the colour shading indicates the malaria positive fraction (MPF) in panel A, or the average age of children who test positive for malaria …
Figure 1—figure supplement 1
Simulated data with varying imposed scales of clustering.
Simulated data using imposed spatial clustering at specific scales are analysed to determine rs (y axis) plotted against scale of analysis (x axis), where a grid with varying cell size is imposed on …
Figure 1—figure supplement 2
Simulated data with varying signal to noise ratios.
Simulated data using imposed spatial clustering at specific scales are analysed to determine rs (y axis) plotted against scale of analysis (x axis), where a grid with varying cell size is imposed on …
Figure 1—figure supplement 3
Simulated data with varying gradients around imposed scales of clustering.
Simulated data using imposed spatial clustering at specific scales are analysed to determine rs (y axis) plotted against scale of analysis (x axis), where a grid with varying cell size is imposed on …
Figure 2 with 2 supplements
Hotspots within hotspots.
Each plotted point represents an individual homestead, where the colour shading indicates the malaria positive fraction (MPF). Hotspots are identified using SATScan, using the whole study area …
Figure 2—figure supplement 1
Semi-variogram.
The semi-variogram is shown for MPF. A lowess smoothed line is superimposed on the data points.
Figure 2—figure supplement 2
Log-log plot of semi-variogram.
The log–log plot of the semi-variogram is shown for MPF. A lowess smoothed line is superimposed on the data points.
Figure 3
Temporal variations in malaria positive fraction.
(Panel A) shows the scatter plot of individual homesteads by mean malaria positive fraction (MPF) on the x axis vs variance in MPF on the y axis (rs = −0.61, p<0.0001). A labelled blue circle …
Figure 4
Theoretical accuracy of targeted control undertaken at varying temporal and spatial scales.
The accuracy of varying strategies of hotspot identification is shown. Each panel is labelled with the time period of surveillance data used. The x axis shows the diameter of hotspot defined. In …
Videos
Video 1
Each plotted point represents an individual homestead, where the colour shading indicates the malaria positive fraction (MPF), with red shading for high MPF and blue shading for low MPF.
Points change colour each year.
Video 2
Each plotted point represents an individual homestead, where the colour shading indicates the malaria positive fraction (MPF), with red shading for high MPF and blue shading for low MPF.
Points change color each year. The frames are identical to those in Video 1, but move more rapidly.
