1. Epidemiology and Global Health
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Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R0) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands

  1. Clara Champagne  Is a corresponding author
  2. David Georges Salthouse
  3. Richard Paul
  4. Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau
  5. Benjamin Roche
  6. Bernard Cazelles  Is a corresponding author
  1. IBENS, UMR 8197 CNRS-ENS Ecole Normale Supérieure, France
  2. Institut Pasteur, France
  3. Institut Louis Malardé, French Polynesia
  4. International Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, UMI 209 UPMC/IRD, France
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Cite this article as: eLife 2016;5:e19874 doi: 10.7554/eLife.19874

Abstract

Before the outbreak that reached the Americas in 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) circulated in Asia and the Pacific: these past epidemics can be highly informative on the key parameters driving virus transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R0). We compare two compartmental models with different mosquito representations, using surveillance and seroprevalence data for several ZIKV outbreaks in Pacific islands (Yap, Micronesia 2007, Tahiti and Moorea, French Polynesia 2013-2014, New Caledonia 2014). Models are estimated in a stochastic framework with recent Bayesian techniques. R0 for the Pacific ZIKV epidemics is estimated between 1.5 and 4.1, the smallest islands displaying higher and more variable values. This relatively low range of R0 suggests that intervention strategies developed for other flaviviruses should enable as, if not more effective control of ZIKV. Our study also highlights the importance of seroprevalence data for precise quantitative analysis of pathogen propagation, to design prevention and control strategies.

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Author details

  1. Clara Champagne

    IBENS, UMR 8197 CNRS-ENS Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
    For correspondence
    champagn@biologie.ens.fr
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-0369-6758

  2. David Georges Salthouse

    IBENS, UMR 8197 CNRS-ENS Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.

  3. Richard Paul

    Unité de Génétique Fonctionnelle des Maladies Infectieuses, Department of Genomes and Genetics, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.

  4. Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau

    Unit of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Institut Louis Malardé, Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.

  5. Benjamin Roche

    International Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, UMI 209 UPMC/IRD, Montpellier, France
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.

  6. Bernard Cazelles

    IBENS, UMR 8197 CNRS-ENS Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
    For correspondence
    cazelles@biologie.ens.fr
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-7972-361X

Funding

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (Pepiniere interdisciplinaire Eco-Evo-Devo)

  • Clara Champagne
  • David Georges Salthouse
  • Bernard Cazelles

European Commission (Seventh Framework Program [FP7 2007-2013] for the DENFREE project under Grant Agreement 282 348)

  • Clara Champagne
  • David Georges Salthouse
  • Richard Paul
  • Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau
  • Bernard Cazelles

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.

Reviewing Editor

  1. Mark Jit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England, United Kingdom

Publication history

  1. Received: July 21, 2016
  2. Accepted: November 22, 2016
  3. Accepted Manuscript published: November 29, 2016 (version 1)
  4. Version of Record published: January 24, 2017 (version 2)

Copyright

© 2016, Champagne et al.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

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