Current CRISPR gene drive systems are likely to be highly invasive in wild populations

  1. Charleston Noble
  2. Ben Adlam
  3. George M Church
  4. Kevin M Esvelt  Is a corresponding author
  5. Martin A Nowak  Is a corresponding author
  1. Harvard University, United States
  2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Media Lab, United States
11 figures, 3 tables and 1 additional file

Figures

Existing alteration-type CRISPR gene drive systems should invade well-mixed wild populations.

(A) Typical construction and function of alteration-type CRISPR gene drive systems. A drive construct (D), including a CRISPR nuclease, guide RNA (gRNA), and ‘cargo’ sequence, induces cutting at a …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.003
Existing CRISPR gene drive systems should invade linked subpopulations connected by gene flow.

(A) Diagram of well-mixed subpopulations (circles) linked by gene flow (edges). Individuals represented by chromosomes with wild-type (gray), drive (red), or resistant (blue) haplotypes. (B) Few …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.004
Peak drive distributions for variable release and population sizes.

Parameters are chosen to correspond to Figure 1E: P=0.5, f=0.9 and neutral resistance. Population sizes are, from light to dark, N=500,1000,2500,5000,10000. Note that N=500 corresponds exactly to Figure 1E. Each distribution …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.005
Pre-existing drive-resistant allele frequency linearly decreases peak drive.

Distributions (violin plots), means (orange, circles) and linear regression of the mean values (red, squares). Parameters are chosen to correspond to Figure 1E: P=0.5, f=0.9, neutral resistance, N=500. Each …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.006
Peak drive distributions for varying numbers of offspring per mating with effective population and release sizes held constant.

(top) Population and release sizes used in the simulations below. For the case k=1, we use our usual population size of N=500 with an initial release of i=16 drive homozygotes. According to Equation (5), …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.007
Peak drive distributions for varying numbers of offspring per mating with census population and actual release sizes held constant.

(top) Population and release sizes used in the simulations below. Actual population size, N (light blue, circles) and actual release size, i (light blue, triangles). Note that N=500 and i=15 are …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.008
Mean peak drive for varying homing efficiency, P, and drive-individual fitness values, f (i.e., individuals with genotypes WD, DD, and DR), assuming that fitness affects birth rate (left) or death rate (right).

The left panel corresponds to our standard model, shown in Figure 1C, while the right panel represents a modification: parents are chosen uniformly, and individuals die with probability proportional …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.009
Mean peak drive for varying drive-individual fitness values, f, and resistant-individual (RR) fitness values, 1s, where s is the cost associated with resistance.

Each point in the grid (51×51) depicts an average of 100 simulations. Parameters used include homing efficiency P=0.5, population size of 500, with an initial release of 15 drive homozygotes to ensure …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.010
Peak drive distributions and means for varying selfing rates in our partial selfing model.

(top) Effective drive, P=0.9. (middle) conservative drive, P=0.5, and (bottom) constitutive drive, P=0.15. Each distribution comprises 1000 simulations. Parameters used include a population size of 500 with an …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.011
Finite-population simulations of 15 drive individuals released into a wild population of size 500, assuming low (P=0.5) or high (P=0.9) homing efficiencies, as well as a low-efficiency, constitutively active system (P=0.15).

Deterministic results (dark lines) and means of 103 simulations (medium lines), individual sample simulations (light lines), and 50% confidence intervals (shaded). Drive frequencies red and …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.012
Diagram of simulation scheme.

In each time step, a migration occurs with probability m, or a mating happens with probability 1m. If a migration occurs, a source population is chosen randomly proportional to its size; an …

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.013

Tables

Appendix 1—table 1
Empirical homing efficiencies for all CRISPR gene drive systems published to date.

Details can be found in the Appendix.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.016
OrganismRef.System nameEfficiency
Yeast(DiCarlo et al., 2015)ade2::sgRNA

>99%

ade2::sgRNA + URA3

100%

sgRNA + ABD1

100%

cas9 + sgRNA

>99%

ADE2 + sgRNA + cas9

>99%

Fruit flies(Gantz and Bier, 2015)γ-MCR

97%

(Champer et al., 2017)nanos

62%

vasa

52%

additional nanos40–62%
additional vasa37–53%
Mosquitoes(Gantz et al., 2015)AsMCRkh2 (male)

98%

AsMCRkh2 (female)

14%

(Hammond et al., 2016)AGAP011377

83%

AGAP005958

95%

AGAP007280

99%

Appendix 1—table 2
Gantz et al., An. stephensi transgenic male lines.

(left) Phenotypes of G3 progeny. (right) Phenotypes of G4 progeny.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.017
G3 crosses

D

T

Reference
10.1 G2×WT, larval

829

832

Table S3
10.2 G2×WT, larval

3060

3085

Table S4
10.1 G2×WT, adult

833

836

Table S5
10.2 G2×WT, adult

1258

1274

Table S6
Total

5980

6027

G4 crosses

D

T

Reference
Cross 6, larval

949

955

Table S7
Cross 8, larval

609

628

Table S8
Cross 6, adult

882

888

Table S10
Cross 8, adult

565

583

Table S11
Total

3005

3054

Appendix 1—table 3
Gantz et al., An. stephensi transgenic male lines.

(left) Phenotypes of G4 larvae. (right) Phenotypes of G4 adults.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33423.018
G4 larvae

D

T

Reference
Cross 1

28

48

Table S7
Cross 2

332

635

Table S7
Cross 3

204

324

Table S8
Cross 4

372

632

Table S8
Total

936

1639

G4 adults

D

T

Reference
Cross 1

19

35

Table S10
Cross 2

306

554

Table S10
Cross 3

169

272

Table S11
Cross 4

1430

2500

Table S11
Total

1924

3361

Additional files

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