Figure is the same as Figure 3B but without the scaling average oocyst density to the Mali dataset. Panel (A) shows all sites together whilst (B–E) show figures for each site independently. Point colour denotes the study from which the observation came: Ouelessebougou, Mali (red, (B)), Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso (blue, (C)), Yaoundé, Cameroon (green, (D)), and Balonghin, Burkina Faso (purple, (E)). Horizontal and vertical lines indicate 95% Bayesian credible intervals (CIs) around point estimates. The coloured lines indicate the best-fit model for each site with the shaded area indicates the 95% CI uncertainty around these lines. The colours of the lines correspond to the colours of the points. Best fit model predictions are projected across the gametocyte-density range observed per site.