1. Neuroscience

Confidence predicts speed-accuracy tradeoff for subsequent decisions in humans

  1. Kobe Desender  Is a corresponding author
  2. Annika Boldt
  3. Tom Verguts
  4. Tobias H Donner
  1. University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany
  2. University College London, United Kingdom
  3. Ghent University, Belgium
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.43499
Share this article
Cite this article
  1. Kobe Desender
  2. Annika Boldt
  3. Tom Verguts
  4. Tobias H Donner
(2019)
Confidence predicts speed-accuracy tradeoff for subsequent decisions in humans
eLife 8:e43499.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.43499
  2. Download BibTeX
  3. Download .RIS

Abstract

When external feedback about decision outcomes is lacking, agents need to adapt their decision policies based on an internal estimate of the correctness of their choices (i.e., decision confidence). We hypothesized that agents use confidence to continuously update the tradeoff between the speed and accuracy of their decisions: When confidence is low in one decision, the agent needs more evidence before committing to a choice in the next decision, leading to slower but more accurate decisions. We tested this hypothesis by fitting a bounded accumulation decision model to behavioral data from three different perceptual choice tasks. Decision bounds indeed depended on the reported confidence on the previous trial, independent of objective accuracy. This increase in decision bound was predicted by a centro-parietal EEG component sensitive to confidence. We conclude that internally computed neural signals of confidence predict the ongoing adjustment of decision policies.

Data availability

All data has been deposited online and can be freely accessed (https://osf.io/83x7c/ and https://github.com/AnnikaBoldt/Boldt_Yeung_2015). All analysis code is available on GitHub.

The following data sets were generated
The following previously published data sets were used

Article and author information

Author details

  1. Kobe Desender

    Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
    For correspondence
    kobe.desender@gmail.com
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-5462-4260

  2. Annika Boldt

    Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  3. Tom Verguts

    Department of Experimental Psychology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  4. Tobias H Donner

    Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
    Competing interests
    Tobias H Donner, Reviewing editor, eLife.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-7559-6019

Funding

Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (FWO [PEGASUS]² Marie Skłodowska-Curie fellow)

  • Kobe Desender

Economic and Social Research Council (PhD studentship)

  • Annika Boldt

Wellcome (Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellowship)

  • Annika Boldt

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DO 1240/2-1)

  • Tobias H Donner

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DO 1240/3-1)

  • Tobias H Donner

Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (G010419N)

  • Kobe Desender
  • Tom Verguts

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.

Ethics

Human subjects: Written informed consent and consent to publish was obtained prior to participiation. All procedures were approved by the local ethics committee of the University Medical Center, Hamburg-Eppendorf (PV5512).

Copyright

© 2019, Desender et al.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

Metrics

  • 4,257
    views
  • 536
    downloads
  • 70
    citations

Views, downloads and citations are aggregated across all versions of this paper published by eLife.

Download links

A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)

Cite this article (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

  1. Kobe Desender
  2. Annika Boldt
  3. Tom Verguts
  4. Tobias H Donner
(2019)
Confidence predicts speed-accuracy tradeoff for subsequent decisions in humans
eLife 8:e43499.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.43499

Share this article

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.43499

Categories and tags

Research organism

Further reading

    1. Neuroscience

    Rab10 regulates neuropeptide release by maintaining Ca2+ homeostasis and protein synthesis

    Jian Dong, Mian Chen ... Matthijs Verhage
    Research Article

    Dense core vesicles (DCVs) transport and release various neuropeptides and neurotrophins that control diverse brain functions, but the DCV secretory pathway remains poorly understood. Here, we tested a prediction emerging from invertebrate studies about the crucial role of the intracellular trafficking GTPase Rab10, by assessing DCV exocytosis at single-cell resolution upon acute Rab10 depletion in mature mouse hippocampal neurons, to circumvent potential confounding effects of Rab10’s established role in neurite outgrowth. We observed a significant inhibition of DCV exocytosis in Rab10-depleted neurons, whereas synaptic vesicle exocytosis was unaffected. However, rather than a direct involvement in DCV trafficking, this effect was attributed to two ER-dependent processes, ER-regulated intracellular Ca2+ dynamics, and protein synthesis. Gene Ontology analysis of differentially expressed proteins upon Rab10 depletion identified substantial alterations in synaptic and ER/ribosomal proteins, including the Ca2+ pump SERCA2. In addition, ER morphology and dynamics were altered, ER Ca2+ levels were depleted, and Ca2+ homeostasis was impaired in Rab10-depleted neurons. However, Ca2+ entry using a Ca2+ ionophore still triggered less DCV exocytosis. Instead, leucine supplementation, which enhances protein synthesis, largely rescued DCV exocytosis deficiency. We conclude that Rab10 is required for neuropeptide release by maintaining Ca2+ dynamics and regulating protein synthesis. Furthermore, DCV exocytosis appeared more dependent on (acute) protein synthesis than synaptic vesicle exocytosis.

    1. Neuroscience

    Neuronal Signaling: At the crossroads of calcium signaling, protein synthesis and neuropeptide release

    Jakob Rupert, Dragomir Milovanovic
    Insight

    By influencing calcium homeostasis, local protein synthesis and the endoplasmic reticulum, a small protein called Rab10 emerges as a crucial cytoplasmic regulator of neuropeptide secretion.

    1. Neuroscience

    Infralimbic parvalbumin neural activity facilitates cued threat avoidance

    Yi-Yun Ho, Qiuwei Yang ... Melissa R Warden
    Research Article

    The infralimbic cortex (IL) is essential for flexible behavioral responses to threatening environmental events. Reactive behaviors such as freezing or flight are adaptive in some contexts, but in others a strategic avoidance behavior may be more advantageous. IL has been implicated in avoidance, but the contribution of distinct IL neural subtypes with differing molecular identities and wiring patterns is poorly understood. Here, we study IL parvalbumin (PV) interneurons in mice as they engage in active avoidance behavior, a behavior in which mice must suppress freezing in order to move to safety. We find that activity in inhibitory PV neurons increases during movement to avoid the shock in this behavioral paradigm, and that PV activity during movement emerges after mice have experienced a single shock, prior to learning avoidance. PV neural activity does not change during movement toward cued rewards or during general locomotion in the open field, behavioral paradigms where freezing does not need to be suppressed to enable movement. Optogenetic suppression of PV neurons increases the duration of freezing and delays the onset of avoidance behavior, but does not affect movement toward rewards or general locomotion. These data provide evidence that IL PV neurons support strategic avoidance behavior by suppressing freezing.