Confidence predicts speed-accuracy tradeoff for subsequent decisions in humans

  1. Kobe Desender  Is a corresponding author
  2. Annika Boldt
  3. Tom Verguts
  4. Tobias H Donner
  1. University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany
  2. University College London, United Kingdom
  3. Ghent University, Belgium

Abstract

When external feedback about decision outcomes is lacking, agents need to adapt their decision policies based on an internal estimate of the correctness of their choices (i.e., decision confidence). We hypothesized that agents use confidence to continuously update the tradeoff between the speed and accuracy of their decisions: When confidence is low in one decision, the agent needs more evidence before committing to a choice in the next decision, leading to slower but more accurate decisions. We tested this hypothesis by fitting a bounded accumulation decision model to behavioral data from three different perceptual choice tasks. Decision bounds indeed depended on the reported confidence on the previous trial, independent of objective accuracy. This increase in decision bound was predicted by a centro-parietal EEG component sensitive to confidence. We conclude that internally computed neural signals of confidence predict the ongoing adjustment of decision policies.

Data availability

All data has been deposited online and can be freely accessed (https://osf.io/83x7c/ and https://github.com/AnnikaBoldt/Boldt_Yeung_2015). All analysis code is available on GitHub.

The following data sets were generated
The following previously published data sets were used

Article and author information

Author details

  1. Kobe Desender

    Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
    For correspondence
    kobe.desender@gmail.com
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-5462-4260
  2. Annika Boldt

    Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.
  3. Tom Verguts

    Department of Experimental Psychology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.
  4. Tobias H Donner

    Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
    Competing interests
    Tobias H Donner, Reviewing editor, eLife.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-7559-6019

Funding

Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (FWO [PEGASUS]² Marie Skłodowska-Curie fellow)

  • Kobe Desender

Economic and Social Research Council (PhD studentship)

  • Annika Boldt

Wellcome (Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellowship)

  • Annika Boldt

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DO 1240/2-1)

  • Tobias H Donner

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DO 1240/3-1)

  • Tobias H Donner

Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (G010419N)

  • Kobe Desender
  • Tom Verguts

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.

Ethics

Human subjects: Written informed consent and consent to publish was obtained prior to participiation. All procedures were approved by the local ethics committee of the University Medical Center, Hamburg-Eppendorf (PV5512).

Copyright

© 2019, Desender et al.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

Metrics

  • 4,227
    views
  • 533
    downloads
  • 67
    citations

Views, downloads and citations are aggregated across all versions of this paper published by eLife.

Download links

A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)

Cite this article (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

  1. Kobe Desender
  2. Annika Boldt
  3. Tom Verguts
  4. Tobias H Donner
(2019)
Confidence predicts speed-accuracy tradeoff for subsequent decisions in humans
eLife 8:e43499.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.43499

Share this article

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.43499

Further reading

    1. Neuroscience
    Cameron T Ellis, Tristan S Yates ... Nicholas Turk-Browne
    Research Article

    Studying infant minds with movies is a promising way to increase engagement relative to traditional tasks. However, the spatial specificity and functional significance of movie-evoked activity in infants remains unclear. Here, we investigated what movies can reveal about the organization of the infant visual system. We collected fMRI data from 15 awake infants and toddlers aged 5–23 months who attentively watched a movie. The activity evoked by the movie reflected the functional profile of visual areas. Namely, homotopic areas from the two hemispheres responded similarly to the movie, whereas distinct areas responded dissimilarly, especially across dorsal and ventral visual cortex. Moreover, visual maps that typically require time-intensive and complicated retinotopic mapping could be predicted, albeit imprecisely, from movie-evoked activity in both data-driven analyses (i.e. independent component analysis) at the individual level and by using functional alignment into a common low-dimensional embedding to generalize across participants. These results suggest that the infant visual system is already structured to process dynamic, naturalistic information and that fine-grained cortical organization can be discovered from movie data.

    1. Neuroscience
    Gaqi Tu, Peiying Wen ... Kaori Takehara-Nishiuchi
    Research Article

    Outcomes can vary even when choices are repeated. Such ambiguity necessitates adjusting how much to learn from each outcome by tracking its variability. The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) has been reported to signal the expected outcome and its discrepancy from the actual outcome (prediction error), two variables essential for controlling the learning rate. However, the source of signals that shape these coding properties remains unknown. Here, we investigated the contribution of cholinergic projections from the basal forebrain because they carry precisely timed signals about outcomes. One-photon calcium imaging revealed that as mice learned different probabilities of threat occurrence on two paths, some mPFC cells responded to threats on one of the paths, while other cells gained responses to threat omission. These threat- and omission-evoked responses were scaled to the unexpectedness of outcomes, some exhibiting a reversal in response direction when encountering surprising threats as opposed to surprising omissions. This selectivity for signed prediction errors was enhanced by optogenetic stimulation of local cholinergic terminals during threats. The enhanced threat-evoked cholinergic signals also made mice erroneously abandon the correct choice after a single threat that violated expectations, thereby decoupling their path choice from the history of threat occurrence on each path. Thus, acetylcholine modulates the encoding of surprising outcomes in the mPFC to control how much they dictate future decisions.