We collated contact tracing data from COVID-19 clusters in Singapore and Tianjin, China and estimated the extent of pre-symptomatic transmission by estimating incubation periods and serial intervals. The mean incubation periods accounting for intermediate cases were 4.91 days (95%CI 4.35, 5.69) and 7.54 (95%CI 6.76, 8.56) days for Singapore and Tianjin, respectively. The mean serial interval was 4.17 (95%CI 2.44, 5.89) and 4.31 (95%CI 2.91, 5.72) days (Singapore, Tianjin). The serial intervals are shorter than incubation periods, suggesting that pre-symptomatic transmission may occur in a large proportion of transmission events (0.4-0.5 in Singapore and 0.6-0.8 in Tianjin, in our analysis with intermediate cases, and more without intermediates). Given the evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission it is vital that even individuals who appear healthy abide by public health measures to control COVID-19.
Data are available on github at github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19. Code to produce all analyses is also available there. Source data files of the Singapore and Tianjin clusters have been provided.
- Caroline Colijn
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
- Marc Lipsitch, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, United States
© 2020, Tindale et al.
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