Utility of polygenic embryo screening for disease depends on the selection strategy
- Departments of Psychiatry and Molecular Medicine, Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, United States
- Department of Psychiatry, Division of Research, The Zucker Hillside Hospital Division of Northwell Health, United States
- Institute for Behavioral Science, The Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research, United States
- Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
- Department of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, United States
- The Charles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, United States
- Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, United States
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, United States
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
Figures
Figure 1
A schematic of the liability threshold model and polygenic embryo screening.
(A) An illustration of the embryo selection strategies considered in this report. In the figure, each embryo is shown as a filled circle, and embryos are sorted based on their predicted risk, that is…
Figure 2 with 3 supplements
The relative risk reduction across selection strategies and disease parameters.
The relative risk reduction (RRR) is defined as , where is the disease prevalence, and is the probability of the implanted embryo to become affected. The RRR is shown for the high-risk …
Figure 2—figure supplement 1
The relative risk reduction for the high-risk exclusion strategy, with available embryos.
All details are exactly as in panels (A–C) in Figure 2 of the main text, except that we simulated embryos.
Figure 2—figure supplement 2
The relative risk reduction under the high-risk exclusion (HRE) strategy, using two different rules for how an embryo is selected when all embryos are high risk.
All details are similar to those of Figure 2 of the main text, except the following. We used embryos, , and and (panels (A–C), respectively). For both sub-strategies, we first determined …
Figure 2—figure supplement 3
The relative risk reduction under the lowest-risk prioritization strategy for a dichotomized trait.
In panel (A), we define a hypothetical individual as 'affected' (or having an intellectual disability) if that individual has IQ<70. Assuming IQ is normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a SD …
Figure 3 with 2 supplements
The relative risk reduction when the polygenic risk scores of the parents are known.
Panels (A)-(D) are for the high-risk exclusion (HRE) strategy, while panels (E)-(H) are for the lowest-risk prioritization (LRP) strategy. All details are as in Figure 2, except the following. …
Figure 3—figure supplement 1
The relative risk reduction when the parental disease status is known.
Panels (A–C) are for the high-risk exclusion (HRE) strategy, while panels (D–F) are for the lowest-risk prioritization (LRP) strategy. The details are as in Figure 2, except the following. First, we …
Figure 3—figure supplement 2
The absolute risk reduction when the polygenic risk scores of the parents are known.
All details are the same as in Figure 3, except that the absolute (rather than the relative) risk reduction is shown. The absolute risk reduction is defined as the difference between the baseline …
Figure 4
The variability in the relative risk reduction across couples.
We considered only the lowest-risk prioritization strategy. In panels (A–C), we computed the theoretical distribution of the per-couple relative risk reduction, as explained in the Appendix Section …
Figure 5
The increase in the risk of a negatively correlated disease due to polygenic embryo screening.
We simulated two diseases that have genetic correlation . We assumed that the prevalence is equal between the two diseases ( and : panels (A)-(C), respectively), and that for both …
Figure 6 with 1 supplement
The empirical relative risk reduction in simulated embryos based on genomes from case-control studies of schizophrenia and Crohn’s disease.
We used ≈900 cases and ≈1600 controls for schizophrenia, and ≈150 cases and ≈100 controls for Crohn’s. For each disease, we drew 5000 random 'virtual couples', regardless of sex, but correcting for …
Figure 6—figure supplement 1
The variance of the PRS across simulated embryos.
Panels (A) and (B) are for schizophrenia, while panels (C) and (D) are for Crohn’s disease. Panels (A) and (C) show the variance of the PRS across the embryos of each simulated family, vs the …
