Data behind Figure 1.
Data behind Figure 1—figure supplement 1.
Data behind Figure 1—figure supplement 2.
*Based on the available information. Reproduced from various panels in Supplementary Figure 3a from Janssen et al., 2021, under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0; https:/…
Data behind Figure 2.
*Based on the available information. Reproduced from various panels in Supplementary Figure 3b from Janssen et al., 2021, under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0; https:/…
Data behind Figure 2—figure supplement 1.
Data behind Figure 3.
Data behind Figure 3—figure supplement 1.
Data behind Figure 3—figure supplement 2.
Data behind Figure 3—figure supplement 3.
Country | Gain e0 1990–2014 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Observed | Non-lifestyle-attributable mortality | |||
Men | Women | Men | Women | |
Austria | 6.69 | 4.87 | 5.05 | 5.29 |
Belgium | 5.88 | 4.18 | 4.22 | 4.90 |
Czech Republic | 8.19 | 6.33 | 5.50 | 6.62 |
Denmark | 6.54 | 4.94 | 4.98 | 5.01 |
Finland | 7.19 | 4.96 | 5.19 | 5.56 |
France | 6.56 | 4.47 | 4.95 | 4.84 |
Germany | 6.52 | 4.92 | 4.99 | 5.45 |
Greece | 3.80 | 4.18 | 3.44 | 4.23 |
Hungary | 7.12 | 5.47 | 5.61 | 6.16 |
Ireland | 7.03 | 5.52 | 5.97 | 5.90 |
Italy | 6.92 | 4.91 | 4.67 | 4.97 |
Netherlands | 6.05 | 3.20 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
Norway | 6.58 | 4.29 | 6.10 | 5.21 |
Poland | 7.41 | 6.13 | 6.56 | 7.04 |
Slovenia | 8.20 | 6.00 | 5.62 | 6.39 |
Sweden | 5.54 | 3.66 | 5.09 | 4.35 |
Switzerland | 6.98 | 4.40 | 5.25 | 4.76 |
United Kingdom | 6.41 | 4.49 | 4.89 | 4.67 |
Average | 6.64 | 4.83 | 5.13 | 5.33 |
Min | 3.80 | 3.20 | 3.44 | 4.23 |
Max | 8.20 | 6.33 | 6.56 | 7.04 |
Variance | 0.92 | 0.66 | 0.51 | 0.62 |
Annual change | 0.28 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.22 |
Forerunners* | 4.81 | 4.81 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
*French, Italian, and Spanish women (unweighted average). For Spanish women, the gain in e0 (1990–2014) was 5.05 years for all-cause mortality and 5.20 years for non-lifestyle-attributable mortality.
Data behind Table 1.
Country | Men | Women | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e0 2014 | e0 2065 | e0 2014 | e0 2065 | |||||
Lee–Carter | Adding lifestyle | Lifestyle and coherent | Lee–Carter | Adding lifestyle | Lifestyle and coherent | |||
Austria | 78.91 | 88.91 | 89.02 | 90.38 | 83.73 | 91.42 | 92.57 | 92.54 |
Belgium | 78.57 | 87.76 | 88.20 | 90.93 | 83.52 | 90.09 | 92.43 | 92.98 |
Czechia | 75.72 | 87.77 | 87.23 | 88.86 | 81.73 | 90.87 | 92.28 | 91.37 |
Denmark | 78.56 | 87.72 | 88.48 | 90.50 | 82.67 | 89.66 | 93.33 | 93.08 |
Finland | 78.13 | 88.25 | 88.30 | 90.22 | 83.85 | 90.90 | 92.65 | 92.69 |
France | 79.28 | 89.11 | 90.03 | 91.40 | 85.44 | 92.77 | 94.24 | 94.01 |
Germany | 78.43 | 88.36 | 88.67 | 90.18 | 83.35 | 90.78 | 92.60 | 92.62 |
Greece | 78.46 | 85.07 | 86.32 | 90.97 | 83.83 | 89.75 | 90.51 | 92.44 |
Hungary | 72.26 | 81.74 | 85.89 | 88.64 | 79.24 | 87.09 | 90.21 | 90.96 |
Ireland | 79.15 | 89.59 | 90.57 | 90.95 | 83.23 | 91.67 | 94.38 | 93.40 |
Italy | 80.55 | 89.25 | 89.14 | 91.43 | 85.16 | 92.30 | 93.34 | 93.53 |
Netherlands | 79.87 | 88.67 | 88.73 | 91.11 | 83.29 | 88.80 | 92.59 | 93.18 |
Norway | 80.03 | 88.86 | 90.23 | 90.87 | 84.09 | 90.72 | 93.48 | 93.35 |
Poland | 73.66 | 85.21 | 88.28 | 89.37 | 81.41 | 90.44 | 92.74 | 91.88 |
Slovenia | 77.96 | 88.68 | 88.95 | 89.91 | 83.69 | 92.20 | 93.79 | 92.60 |
Sweden | 80.35 | 88.37 | 89.18 | 90.64 | 84.05 | 89.92 | 92.27 | 93.01 |
Switzerland | 80.93 | 89.77 | 89.31 | 90.88 | 85.11 | 91.41 | 92.70 | 93.16 |
United Kingdom | 79.25 | 88.99 | 89.35 | 91.04 | 82.99 | 89.93 | 92.70 | 93.34 |
Average | 78.34 | 87.89 | 88.66 | 90.46 | 83.35 | 90.59 | 92.71 | 92.78 |
Min | 72.26 | 81.74 | 85.89 | 88.64 | 79.24 | 87.09 | 90.21 | 90.96 |
Max | 80.93 | 89.77 | 90.57 | 91.43 | 85.44 | 92.77 | 94.38 | 94.01 |
Variance | 4.98 | 3.77 | 1.41 | 0.62 | 2.02 | 1.73 | 1.07 | 0.55 |
Data behind Table 2.
All-cause mortality | Non-lifestyle-attributable mortality | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Men | Women | Men | Women | |
Austria | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Belgium | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Czech Republic | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Denmark | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Finland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
France | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Germany | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Greece | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Hungary | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Ireland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Italy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Netherlands | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Norway | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Poland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Slovenia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Sweden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
United Kingdom | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
0 = stationary time series; i.e., the time series does not exhibit a trend.
1 or 2 = non-stationary time series.
Age | Smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) | Alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) | Obesity-attributable mortality fractions (OAMF)* | Lifestyle-attributable mortality fractions (LAMF)† | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
35–100 M; 40–100 F | 20–100 | 20–100 | 20–100‡ | |||||
Years by country | ||||||||
Austria | 1955 | 2014 | 1990 | 2014 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2014 |
Belgium | 1954 | 2015 | 1990 | 2015 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2015 |
Czech Republic | 1953 | 2016 | 1990 | 2016 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2016 |
Denmark | 1951 | 2015 | 1990 | 2016 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2015 |
Finland | 1952 | 2015 | 1990 | 2015 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2015 |
France | 1950 | 2015 | 1990 | 2015 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2015 |
Germany | 1970 | 2015 | 1990 | 2015 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2015 |
Greece | 1961 | 2013 | 1990 | 2013 | 1981 | 2016 | 1990 | 2014§ |
Hungary | 1955 | 2014 | 1990 | 2014 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2014 |
Ireland | 1950 | 2014 | 1990 | 2014 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2014 |
Italy | 1951 | 2014 | 1990 | 2014 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2014 |
Netherlands | 1950 | 2016 | 1990 | 2016 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2016 |
Norway | 1951 | 2014 | 1990 | 2014 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2014 |
Poland | 1959 | 2014 | 1990 | 2014 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2014 |
Slovenia | 1985 | 2014 | 1990 | 2014 | 1983 | 2016 | 1990 | 2014 |
Sweden | 1951 | 2016 | 1990 | 2016 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2016 |
Switzerland | 1951 | 2015 | 1990 | 2016 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2015 |
United Kingdom | 1950 | 2015 | 1990 | 2016 | 1975 | 2016 | 1990 | 2015 |
*We projected obesity prevalence data (1975–2016) into the future. To obtain the OAMF, we only needed the RRs of dying from obesity. However, to obtain age-standardised fractions, we also needed all-cause mortality data.
†See projection step three for details on how we dealt with projections not being available for all the three lifestyle factors for the years 2015–2016.
‡By setting the SAMF for ages 20–34 (M) and ages 20–39 (F) to zero.
§We implemented the median projected AAMF and SAMF for Greece as the observed AAMF and SAMF in 2014 so that we could calculate the lifestyle-attributable mortality up until 2014, and so that we could apply it to the all-cause mortality rates to obtain non-lifestyle-attributable mortality rates. For this purpose, we used all-cause mortality from HMD from 26 February 2020.
All-cause mortality | Non-lifestyle attributable mortality | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Country | Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity I | Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity II | Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity III | Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity I | Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity II | Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity III |
Men | ||||||
Austria | -0.20 | -2.19 | -0.76 | -0.13 | -0.77 | -0.94 |
Belgium | -0.17 | -2.08 | -0.61 | -0.16 | -0.81 | -0.90 |
Czech Republic | -0.24 | -2.33 | -0.71 | -0.23 | -0.76 | -1.09 |
Denmark | -0.17 | -2.11 | -0.60 | -0.14 | -0.71 | -0.91 |
Finland | -0.26 | -2.13 | -0.83 | -0.22 | -0.73 | -1.00 |
France | -0.21 | -2.12 | -0.75 | -0.09 | -0.78 | -0.78 |
Germany | -0.23 | -2.09 | -0.85 | -0.22 | -0.70 | -0.95 |
Greece | -0.27 | -2.05 | -0.80 | -0.31 | -0.82 | -1.01 |
Hungary | -0.19 | -2.11 | -0.65 | -0.24 | -0.83 | -1.14 |
Ireland | -0.17 | -2.05 | -0.80 | -0.13 | -0.82 | -1.06 |
Italy | -0.28 | -1.86 | -0.74 | -0.18 | -0.73 | -0.92 |
Netherlands | -0.16 | -1.94 | -0.67 | -0.17 | -0.76 | -0.84 |
Norway | -0.35 | -1.83 | -0.77 | -0.31 | -0.82 | -1.03 |
Poland | -0.22 | -2.14 | -0.67 | -0.28 | -0.79 | -1.01 |
Slovenia | -0.22 | -2.03 | -0.68 | -0.15 | -0.67 | -1.00 |
Sweden | -0.27 | -1.79 | -0.71 | -0.29 | -0.64 | -0.89 |
Switzerland | -0.23 | -1.82 | -0.67 | -0.19 | -0.69 | -0.89 |
United Kingdom | -0.26 | -2.02 | -0.70 | -0.23 | -0.80 | -0.91 |
Average | -0.23 | -2.04 | -0.72 | -0.21 | -0.76 | -0.96 |
Women | ||||||
Austria | -0.19 | -1.61 | -0.56 | -0.16 | -0.73 | -0.81 |
Belgium | -0.21 | -1.67 | -0.72 | -0.09 | -0.76 | -0.83 |
Czech Republic | -0.24 | -1.70 | -0.64 | -0.10 | -0.68 | -0.87 |
Denmark | -0.19 | -1.77 | -0.66 | -0.08 | -0.53 | -0.58 |
Finland | -0.22 | -1.69 | -0.69 | -0.14 | -0.73 | -0.86 |
France | -0.23 | -1.37 | -0.54 | -0.12 | -0.71 | -0.77 |
Germany | -0.21 | -1.55 | -0.66 | -0.16 | -0.66 | -0.82 |
Greece | -0.27 | -1.52 | -0.72 | -0.13 | -0.69 | -0.85 |
Hungary | -0.18 | -1.79 | -0.65 | -0.16 | -0.79 | -1.03 |
Ireland | -0.28 | -1.83 | -0.77 | -0.18 | -0.81 | -0.80 |
Italy | -0.25 | -1.59 | -0.65 | -0.16 | -0.70 | -0.85 |
Netherlands | -0.25 | -1.57 | -0.68 | -0.15 | -0.66 | -0.75 |
Norway | -0.24 | -1.67 | -0.66 | -0.09 | -0.66 | -0.85 |
Poland | -0.18 | -1.85 | -0.69 | -0.19 | -0.71 | -0.90 |
Slovenia | -0.20 | -1.62 | -0.68 | -0.14 | -0.60 | -0.85 |
Sweden | -0.23 | -1.56 | -0.65 | -0.14 | -0.59 | -0.74 |
Switzerland | -0.19 | -1.45 | -0.59 | -0.16 | -0.66 | -0.73 |
United Kingdom | -0.23 | -1.65 | -0.68 | -0.18 | -0.56 | -0.70 |
Average | -0.22 | -1.64 | -0.66 | -0.14 | -0.68 | -0.81 |
*original = using women in France, Spain and Italy as the reference population.
sensitivity 1 = using only women in France and Italy as the reference population.
sensitivity 2 = using women in Sweden, Norway and Switzerland as the reference population.
sensitivity 3 = using the average across the 18 countries included in the analysis as the reference population.
Note: the sensitivity analyses were all based on 1000 simulations, and we assumed non-stationarity for the remaining population-specific time trends k(t,i).
MEN | WOMEN | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Projected SD* 2065 | Projected SD* 2065 | |||||||
Country | SD* 2014 | Lee-Carter | Adding lifestyle | Lifestyle and coherent | SD* 2014 | Lee-Carter | Adding lifestyle | Lifestyle and coherent |
Austria | 14.33 | 10.88 | 11.11 | 10.31 | 13.05 | 9.69 | 8.73 | 8.91 |
Belgium | 14.70 | 11.57 | 11.27 | 9.78 | 13.36 | 11.09 | 9.53 | 9.18 |
Czechia | 14.36 | 10.96 | 12.02 | 10.69 | 12.61 | 9.23 | 8.53 | 9.22 |
Denmark | 14.25 | 10.51 | 10.37 | 10.09 | 13.26 | 10.15 | 10.10 | 9.27 |
Finland | 14.69 | 11.61 | 11.18 | 10.35 | 12.66 | 10.90 | 9.65 | 9.03 |
France | 15.32 | 11.75 | 11.35 | 10.04 | 13.59 | 11.11 | 9.92 | 9.27 |
Germany | 14.25 | 10.66 | 11.31 | 10.39 | 12.93 | 9.61 | 8.85 | 9.23 |
Greece | 15.10 | 14.31 | 14.26 | 10.56 | 12.67 | 10.20 | 9.98 | 9.25 |
Hungary | 15.11 | 12.77 | 11.23 | 11.21 | 13.90 | 11.38 | 9.33 | 10.01 |
Ireland | 14.52 | 11.43 | 10.84 | 9.78 | 13.18 | 10.59 | 9.98 | 9.25 |
Italy | 13.53 | 9.11 | 10.95 | 9.76 | 12.41 | 9.06 | 9.01 | 8.94 |
Netherlands | 13.62 | 9.82 | 10.16 | 9.60 | 13.19 | 11.12 | 9.68 | 8.93 |
Norway | 13.74 | 10.17 | 9.93 | 9.68 | 12.50 | 10.22 | 9.39 | 8.79 |
Poland | 15.93 | 13.49 | 12.52 | 11.50 | 13.92 | 11.08 | 9.65 | 9.86 |
Slovenia | 13.89 | 10.05 | 10.93 | 10.33 | 12.28 | 9.00 | 8.39 | 8.96 |
Sweden | 13.60 | 10.31 | 10.13 | 9.47 | 12.49 | 9.88 | 9.15 | 8.69 |
Switzerland | 13.84 | 9.45 | 10.29 | 9.81 | 12.59 | 9.37 | 8.79 | 8.66 |
United Kingdom | 14.64 | 12.24 | 11.87 | 10.11 | 13.62 | 11.06 | 10.58 | 9.37 |
Average | 14.41 | 11.17 | 11.21 | 10.19 | 13.01 | 10.26 | 9.40 | 9.16 |
Min | 13.53 | 9.11 | 9.93 | 9.47 | 12.28 | 9.00 | 8.39 | 8.66 |
Max | 15.93 | 14.31 | 14.26 | 11.50 | 13.92 | 11.38 | 10.58 | 10.01 |
Variance | 0.42 | 1.81 | 0.99 | 0.28 | 0.25 | 0.61 | 0.34 | 0.12 |
* SD = Standard deviation of the age at death distribution (age 0-100).
(A) Sex differences in observed (2014) and projected (2065) life expectancy at birth (e0), by country and sex, according to our projection methodology, which takes into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol and the mortality experiences of forerunner countries (‘lifestyle and coherent’); the benchmark Lee–Carter extrapolative mortality projection applied to all-cause mortality (‘Lee–Carter’); and when purely accounting for smoking, obesity, and alcohol (‘adding lifestyle’). (B) Observed (2014) and projected (2065) life expectancy at birth (e0) according to different methodologies, by country and sex. (C) Comparison of projected life expectancy in 2065 between our final projection (‘we’) and the most recent projections by Eurostat and the United Nations (UN), by country and sex.