Convalescent plasma use in the United States was inversely correlated with COVID-19 mortality

  1. Arturo Casadevall  Is a corresponding author
  2. Quigly Dragotakes
  3. Patrick W Johnson
  4. Jonathon W Senefeld
  5. Stephen A Klassen
  6. R Scott Wright
  7. Michael J Joyner
  8. Nigel Paneth
  9. Rickey E Carter
  1. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, United States
  2. Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, United States
  3. Mayo Clinic, United States
  4. Michigan State University, United States

Abstract

Background. The US Food and Drug Administration authorized Convalescent Plasma (CCP) therapy for hospitalized COVID-19 patients via the Expanded Access Program (EAP) and the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), leading to use in about 500,000 patients during the first year of the pandemic for the US.

Methods. We tracked the number of CCP units dispensed to hospitals by blood banking organizations and correlated that usage with hospital admission and mortality data.

Results. CCP usage per admission peaked in Fall 2020, with more than 40% of inpatients estimated to have received CCP between late September and early November 2020. However, after randomized controlled trials failed to show a reduction in mortality, CCP usage per admission declined steadily to a nadir of less than 10% in March 2021. We found a strong inverse correlation (r = -0.52, P = 0.002) between CCP usage per hospital admission and deaths occurring two weeks after admission, and this finding was robust to examination of deaths taking place one, two or three weeks after admission. Changes in the number of hospital admissions, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and age of patients could not explain these findings. The retreat from CCP usage might have resulted in as many as 29,000 excess deaths from mid-November 2020 to February 2021.

Conclusions. A strong inverse correlation between CCP use and mortality per admission in the USA provides population level evidence consistent with the notion that CCP reduces mortality in COVID-19 and suggests that the recent decline in usage could have resulted in excess deaths.

Funding. There was no specific funding for this study. AC was supported in part by RO1 HL059842 and R01 AI1520789; MJJ was supported in part by 5R35HL139854. This project has been funded in whole or in part with Federal funds from the Department of Health and Human Services; Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority under Contract No. 75A50120C00096.

Data availability

All data generated or analysed during this study are included in the manuscript and supporting files

Article and author information

Author details

  1. Arturo Casadevall

    Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
    For correspondence
    acasade1@jhu.edu
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-9402-9167
  2. Quigly Dragotakes

    Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  3. Patrick W Johnson

    Mayo Clinic, Jacksonviille, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  4. Jonathon W Senefeld

    Mayo Clinic, Rochester, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  5. Stephen A Klassen

    Mayo Clinic, Rochester, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  6. R Scott Wright

    Mayo Clinic, Rochester, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  7. Michael J Joyner

    Mayo Clinic, Rochester, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  8. Nigel Paneth

    Michigan State University, East Lansing, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  9. Rickey E Carter

    Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.

Funding

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (AI1520789)

  • Arturo Casadevall

Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (75A50120C00096)

  • Michael J Joyner

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.

Reviewing Editor

  1. Jameel Iqbal, James J Peters Veterans Affairs Medical Center, United States

Version history

  1. Received: April 28, 2021
  2. Accepted: June 3, 2021
  3. Accepted Manuscript published: June 4, 2021 (version 1)
  4. Version of Record published: June 15, 2021 (version 2)

Copyright

© 2021, Casadevall et al.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

Metrics

  • 3,235
    views
  • 311
    downloads
  • 39
    citations

Views, downloads and citations are aggregated across all versions of this paper published by eLife.

Download links

A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)

Cite this article (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

  1. Arturo Casadevall
  2. Quigly Dragotakes
  3. Patrick W Johnson
  4. Jonathon W Senefeld
  5. Stephen A Klassen
  6. R Scott Wright
  7. Michael J Joyner
  8. Nigel Paneth
  9. Rickey E Carter
(2021)
Convalescent plasma use in the United States was inversely correlated with COVID-19 mortality
eLife 10:e69866.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.69866

Share this article

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.69866

Further reading

    1. Epidemiology and Global Health
    2. Microbiology and Infectious Disease
    Patrick E Brown, Sze Hang Fu ... Ab-C Study Collaborators
    Research Article

    Background: Few national-level studies have evaluated the impact of 'hybrid' immunity (vaccination coupled with recovery from infection) from the Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2.

    Methods: From May 2020 to December 2022, we conducted serial assessments (each of ~4000-9000 adults) examining SARS-CoV-2 antibodies within a mostly representative Canadian cohort drawn from a national online polling platform. Adults, most of whom were vaccinated, reported viral test-confirmed infections and mailed self-collected dried blood spots to a central lab. Samples underwent highly sensitive and specific antibody assays to spike and nucleocapsid protein antigens, the latter triggered only by infection. We estimated cumulative SARS-CoV-2 incidence prior to the Omicron period and during the BA.1/1.1 and BA.2/5 waves. We assessed changes in antibody levels and in age-specific active immunity levels.

    Results: Spike levels were higher in infected than in uninfected adults, regardless of vaccination doses. Among adults vaccinated at least thrice and infected more than six months earlier, spike levels fell notably and continuously for the nine months post-vaccination. By contrast, among adults infected within six months, spike levels declined gradually. Declines were similar by sex, age group, and ethnicity. Recent vaccination attenuated declines in spike levels from older infections. In a convenience sample, spike antibody and cellular responses were correlated. Near the end of 2022, about 35% of adults above age 60 had their last vaccine dose more than six months ago, and about 25% remained uninfected. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection rose from 13% (95% CI 11-14%) before omicron to 78% (76-80%) by December 2022, equating to 25 million infected adults cumulatively. However, the COVID-19 weekly death rate during the BA.2/5 waves was less than half of that during the BA.1/1.1 wave, implying a protective role for hybrid immunity.

    Conclusions: Strategies to maintain population-level hybrid immunity require up-to-date vaccination coverage, including among those recovering from infection. Population-based, self-collected dried blood spots are a practicable biological surveillance platform.

    Funding: Funding was provided by the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Pfizer Global Medical Grants, and St. Michael's Hospital Foundation. PJ and ACG are funded by the Canada Research Chairs Program.

    1. Computational and Systems Biology
    2. Epidemiology and Global Health
    Javier I Ottaviani, Virag Sagi-Kiss ... Gunter GC Kuhnle
    Research Article

    The chemical composition of foods is complex, variable, and dependent on many factors. This has a major impact on nutrition research as it foundationally affects our ability to adequately assess the actual intake of nutrients and other compounds. In spite of this, accurate data on nutrient intake are key for investigating the associations and causal relationships between intake, health, and disease risk at the service of developing evidence-based dietary guidance that enables improvements in population health. Here, we exemplify the importance of this challenge by investigating the impact of food content variability on nutrition research using three bioactives as model: flavan-3-ols, (–)-epicatechin, and nitrate. Our results show that common approaches aimed at addressing the high compositional variability of even the same foods impede the accurate assessment of nutrient intake generally. This suggests that the results of many nutrition studies using food composition data are potentially unreliable and carry greater limitations than commonly appreciated, consequently resulting in dietary recommendations with significant limitations and unreliable impact on public health. Thus, current challenges related to nutrient intake assessments need to be addressed and mitigated by the development of improved dietary assessment methods involving the use of nutritional biomarkers.