(A) Hospitalizations (B) and deaths (C) under four scenarios representing different levels of vaccination and Delta variant transmissibility increase — United States, October, 2020–December, …
Solid color lines and shaded areas represent median projections and 95% prediction intervals of reported cases for the entire US from each of the 9 models for each of the four scenarios. Projections …
Solid color lines and shaded areas represent median projections and 95% prediction intervals of reported hospitalizations for the entire US from each of the 9 models for each of the four scenarios. …
Solid color lines and shaded areas represent median projections and 95% prediction intervals of reported deaths for the entire US from each of the 9 models for each of the four scenarios. …
(A) Correlation between cumulative projected cases per 10,000 population during the 6-month period and proportion of the eligible population vaccinated with at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by …
Comparison is based on ranking of incidence per capita in 50 states + DC (Spearman’s rank correlation = 0.867). The grey solid line represents perfect agreement between ranks (y=x), which overlays a …
Scenarios defined for projection of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths for the sixth round of projections through the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub§.
Low impact variant;(low transmissibility increase) | High impact variant;(high transmissibility increase) | |
---|---|---|
High vaccination; (low hesitancy) | Vaccination:
| Vaccination:
|
Low vaccination; (high hesitancy) | Vaccination:
| Vaccination:
|
The Vaccine-eligible population is presumed to be individuals aged 12 years and older through the end of the projection period.
Vaccine hesitancy expected to cause vaccination coverage to slow and eventually saturate at some level below 100%. The saturation levels provided in these scenarios are National reference points to guide defining hesitancy, though the speed of that saturation and heterogeneity between states (or other geospatial scales) and/or age groups are at the discretion of the modeling team (COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, 2020). The high vaccination 80% saturation is defined using the current estimates from the Delphi group (updated from Round 6) (Carnegie Mellon University Delphi Group, 2021). The low saturation estimate of 70% is the lowest county-level estimate from the US Census Bureau’s Pulse Survey from May 26-June 7, 2021 data (Estimates of Vaccine Hesitancy for COVID-19, 2021).
To simplify the models and future projections of vaccine administration, it was assumed continued administration of the Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine would not occur on or after the projection date (after July 4, 2021) due to the limited amount administered previously in the US (as of August 4, 2021 approximately 4 million doses delivered since April 13, 2021 compared to 153 million for Pfizer and Moderna) (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2021b).
COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub: https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/.
Summary of model assumptions for the seventh round of long-term scenario projections from the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.
This table details a summary of core model assumptions for the nine included models (arranged alphabetically).