Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in schools using repetitive testing strategies
- Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, University of Antwerp, Belgium
- Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Belgium
- INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, France
- Tokyo Tech World Research Hub Initiative (WRHI), Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Liège University Hospital, Belgium
- Artificial Intelligence Lab, Department of Computer Science, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
- KU Leuven, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, University of Leuven, Belgium
Figures
Figure 1
We show the base scenario for the Wuhan strain (left panel) and Delta VoC (right panel) for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week.
In each panel, we consider three testing strategies: symptomatic testing (SI), symptomatic testing in combination with reactive screening (ReaS) and repetitive screening (RepS). For each of the …
Figure 2
We show the repetitive testing strategy in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider different class closure thresholds, and no school closure threshold.
The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiment shows that when repetitive testing is in place, a higher class closure threshold has little effect on the attack rate, yet it significantly …
Appendix 1—figure 1
We compare the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a seeding of 1 seed per week (left panel) and 10 seeds per week (right panel).
School and class thresholds are set, respectively, to 20 and 2 detected cases. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiment shows that increasing the number of seeds leads to an increase …
Appendix 1—figure 2
We show the repetitive testing strategy in the context of the Wuhan strain and the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider a repetitive testing strategy for which the entire school population is tested either once or twice per week.
We consider class closure threshold of 2 and school closure threshold of 20 cases. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiment demonstrates that for a highly infectious virus strain, …
Appendix 1—figure 3
We show the repetitive testing strategy in the context of the Wuhan strain and the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider a repetitive testing strategy for which the entire school population is tested either once or twice per week.
We consider class closure threshold of 8 and no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiment demonstrates that twice testing can reduce the number of …
Appendix 1—figure 4
We compare the reactive screening strategy in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, when varying the number of screening.
The class closure threshold is of eight detected cases, and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiments shows that increasing the number of …
Appendix 1—figure 5
We compare testing strategy in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, when varying the proportion of between classes contacts compared to a pre-pandemic scenario.
The class closure threshold is of eight detected cases, and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiments shows that increasing between classes …
Appendix 1—figure 6
We compare the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, when varying the proportion of immune children.
The class closure threshold is of eight detected cases, and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiments shows that increasing the proportion of …
Appendix 1—figure 7
We compare the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, when varying the proportion of immune adults.
The class closure threshold is of eight detected cases, and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiments shows that increasing the proportion of …
Appendix 1—figure 8
We show the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider asymptomatic carriers to be as infectious as the symptomatic ones.
The class closure threshold is of eight detected cases, and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. The repetitive screening strategy is shown to reduce the …
Appendix 1—figure 9
We show the repetitive testing strategy in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider different school closure thresholds.
The class closure threshold is set to eight detected cases. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiments shows that a low school closure threshold decreases the attack rate but it …
Appendix 1—figure 10
We show the reactive screening strategy in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider different school closure thresholds.
The class closure threshold is set to eight detected cases. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiments shows that a low school closure threshold decreases the attack rate but it …
Appendix 1—figure 11
We show the symptomatic isolation strategy in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider different school closure thresholds.
The class closure threshold is set to 8 detected cases. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiments shows that a low school closure threshold decreases the attack rate but it increases …
Appendix 1—figure 12
We show the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a seeding of 1 seeds per month, where we consider different school closure thresholds.
The class closure threshold is set to eight detected cases. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. The repetitive screening strategy is shown to decrease the attack rate (left panel) compared to …
Appendix 1—figure 13
We show the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider different probability of having a symptomatic infection.
The class closure threshold is set to 8 detected cases and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiment shows that to an increase in the probability …
Appendix 1—figure 14
We show the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider different incubation period.
The class closure threshold is set to eight detected cases and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. The repetitive screening strategy is shown to decrease …
Appendix 1—figure 15
We show the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider different turnaround time for the test result.
The class closure threshold is set to 8 detected cases and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. An increase in the attack rate is shown for repetitive …
Appendix 1—figure 16
We show the repetitive testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, when varying the compliance to testing.
The class closure threshold is set to eight detected cases and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. For an increase in the compliance the attack rate …
Appendix 1—figure 17
We show the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, when varying the school size.
The class closure threshold is set to eight detected cases and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. For an increase in the school size, the attack rate …
Appendix 1—figure 18
We show the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a seeding of 1 case per week for a school of size 200, 5 seeds per week for a school of size 1000 and 10 seeds per week for a school of size 2000.
The class closure threshold is set to eight detected cases and there is no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiment shows that a high stochasticity for a …
Appendix 1—figure 19
We show the testing strategies in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seed per week when no class and school closures are considered.
The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiment shows that repetitive testing decreases the attack rate while increasing the NSDL compared to the other testing strategies.
Appendix 1—figure 20
We show the testing strategies in the context of the Delta and Omicron variants for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, when no school closure is considered and the class threshold is set to value 8.
The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. Omicron is implemented by lowering the immunity proportion to 0.1 for children and 0.5 for adults, and by considering a shorter incubation period (mean 3.3 …
Appendix 1—figure 21
We show the repetitive testing strategy in the context of the Omicron VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider a repetitive testing strategy where the entire school population is tested either once or twice per week.
We consider class closure threshold of 8 and no school closure threshold. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiment demonstrates that in the contest of Omicron, repetitive testing can …
Appendix 1—figure 22
We show the testing strategies compared to a no-testing scenario (No Testing) in the context of the Delta variants for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week.
when school and class closures are set, respectively, to 20 and 2 detected cases. The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. This experiment shows that symptomatic isolation and the no testing scenario …
Appendix 1—figure 23
We show the symptomatic isolation strategy in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider different class closure thresholds, and no school closure threshold.
The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. We note that in this experiment symptomatic isolation performs similarly for different class closure thresholds.
Appendix 1—figure 24
We show the reactive screening strategy in the context of the Delta VoC for a moderate seeding of 5 seeds per week, where we consider different class closure thresholds, and no school closure threshold.
The epidemic is simulated for 100 days. We note that in this experiment symptomatic isolation performs similarly for different class closure thresholds.
Tables
Table 1
Median and 95% Quantile Interval - Class closure threshold scenario.
| Class Closure Threshold | Summary Measure | Median | 95% Quantile Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Attack Rate | 0.08 | [0.07,0.11] |
| 4 | Attack Rate | 0.09 | [0.07,0.12] |
| 6 | Attack Rate | 0.09 | [0.07,0.12] |
| 8 | Attack Rate | 0.09 | [0.07,0.12] |
| No Threshold | Attack Rate | 0.09 | [0.07,0.11] |
| 2 | NSDL | 9.5 | [7.86, 11.16] |
| 4 | NSDL | 3.6 | [2.50, 4.81] |
| 6 | NSDL | 2.01 | [1.46, 2.83] |
| 8 | NSDL | 1.71 | [1.36, 2.17] |
| No Threshold | NSDL | 1.61 | [1.39, 1.91] |
