(A) Violin plots of the log posterior (top) and No-U-Turn Sampling (NUTS) acceptance statistic (bottom). There are no divergent transitions. To further assess chain convergence, we used , the potential scale reduction factor (Gelman and Rubin, 1992). All values of are nearly equal to 1 , indicating all chains have converged. (B) NUTS energy plot (Betancourt, 2017) for all four chains. The transition distribution (darker histogram in each plot) and target distribution (lighter histogram in each plot) are moderately well aligned, indicating efficient sampling. (C) The effective sample size from the posterior distribution of each parameter was used to gauge the level of autocorrelation in each sample. for all model parameters indicating independent draws within each sample. (D) ROC curve used to assess the diagnostic capability of fitted Bayesian multilevel logistic regression (BMLR) model. The AUC was 0.79 indicating good predictive accuracy.