Epidemiological dynamics of Ebola outbreaks

  1. Thomas House  Is a corresponding author
  1. University of Warwick, United Kingdom
4 figures

Figures

Analysis of rate of new outbreaks and case fatality ratio.

A shows empirical data and 95% CI (black lines) together with fitted distribution and 95% CI (red lines) for rate of new outbreaks. B shows empirical data and 95% CI (black lines) together with fitted distribution and 95% CI (red lines) for case fatality ratio. C shows the posterior density for rate of new outbreaks λ, while D and E show the posterior density for the beta distribution parameters α and β, respectively.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03908.003
Analysis of transmission dynamics for completed outbreaks.

(A and B) Model (solid red line) and 95% CI (dash-dot red line) vs data (black circles) and 95% CI (solid black lines) for different axis scales. (C) Posterior for values of the reproductive ratio Rt. (D) Posterior for the geometric parameter p.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03908.004
Simulation study.

(A) Real-time model simulations, with change in colour denoting a new outbreak. (B) Likelihood contours (black lines and values multiplied by an unimportant constant) together with parameters used to simulate (red cross), showing that the parameters are identifiable from such data.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03908.005
Analysis of transmission dynamics for completed outbreaks plus one outbreak of size 1000–5000.

(A) Model (solid red line) and 95% CI (dash-dot red line) vs data (black circles) and 95% CI (solid black lines). (B) Posterior for the probability of the large uncertain outbreak. (C) Posterior for values of the reproductive ratio Rt. (D) Posterior for the geometric parameter p.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03908.006

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  1. Thomas House
(2014)
Epidemiological dynamics of Ebola outbreaks
eLife 3:e03908.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03908