Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic

  1. Jean-Paul Chretien  Is a corresponding author
  2. Steven Riley
  3. Dylan B George
  1. Division of Integrated Biosurveillance, Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, United States
  2. School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
  3. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, United States
7 figures, 1 table and 4 additional files


Cumulative number of modeling applications by date of most recent EVD data used.

The figure includes 125 modeling applications across the 66 publications.
Publication lag by type of modeling application.

The vertical red and turquoise lines indicate the median lag for publications including and not including, respectively, the type of modeling application.
R0 estimates by type of model input data.

Aggregate, case counts released by the WHO or Ministries of Health; Line-level, individual-level data from epidemiological investigations; Genomic, Ebola virus sequence data. The Figure excludes an outlier estimate of 8.33 for Sierra Leone (Fisman et al., 2014).
R0 estimates and CIs by type of epidemiological input data.

Disaggregated data typically were weekly counts. Top row: Vertical lines indicate 95% CIs. Bottom row: Horizontal bars indicate median CI width.
R0 estimates and CIs by model fitting method.

Top row: Vertical lines indicate 95% CIs. Bottom row: Horizontal bars indicate median CI width.
Accuracy of cumulative incidence forecasts.

Accuracy is shown as the ratio of predicted incidence to incidence subsequently reported by the WHO. 'Dampening' refers to various approaches to restrict the growth of forecasted incidence over time. Top row: Accuracy by date of forecast. Bottom row: Accuracy by forecast lead time ('Horizon'). The Figure excludes one forecast with horizon > 1 year (Fisman and Tuite, 2014).


Table 1

Overview of modeling publications on the 2013-present EVD epidemic.
Ref.Date of latest EVD dataDate publishedEVD data was pre-existing and publicUncertainties addressed
RInterventionsForecastSpreadPhylogeneticsClinical trials
Baize et al., 2014 3/20/144/16/14No*
Dudas and Rambaut, 2014 3/20/145/2/14Yes*
Alizon et al., 2014 6/18/1412/13/14Yes**
Gire et al., 2014 6/18/148/28/14No**
Stadler et al., 2014 6/18/1410/6/14Yes*
Volz and Pond, 2014 6/18/1410/24/14Yes*
Pandey et al., 2014 8/7/1410/30/14Yes***
Gomes et al., 2014 8/9/149/2/14Yes***
Valdez et al., 2015 8/15/147/20/15Yes****
Merler et al., 2015 8/16/141/7/15Yes****
Rainisch et al., 2015 8/16/142/18/15Yes*
Althaus, 2014 8/20/149/2/14Yes*
Fisman et al., 2014 8/22/149/8/14Yes**
Nishiura and Chowell, 2014 8/26/149/11/14Yes**
Poletto et al., 2014 8/27/1410/23/14Yes**
Meltzer et al., 2014 8/28/149/26/14Yes***
Agusto et al., 2015 8/29/144/23/15Yes**
Althaus, 2015 8/31/144/19/15Yes*
Scarpino et al., 2014 8/31/1412/15/14Yes*
Weitz and Dushoff, 2015 8/31/143/4/15Yes**
Drake et al., 2015 9/2/1410/30/14Yes***
Towers et al., 2014 9/8/149/18/14Yes**
Bellan et al., 2014 9/14/1410/14/14Yes*
Chowell et al., 2015 9/14/141/19/15Yes*
Cooper et al., 2015 9/14/144/14/15Yes*
Read et al., 2015 9/14/1411/12/14Yes**
WHO Ebola Response Team, 2014 9/14/149/23/14No***
Faye et al., 2015 9/16/141/23/15No**
Bogoch et al., 2015 9/21/1410/21/14Yes**
Yamin et al., 2014 9/22/1410/28/14No**
Lewnard et al., 2014 9/23/1410/24/14Yes***
Webb et al., 2015 9/23/141/30/15Yes***
Shaman et al., 2014 9/28/1410/27/14Yes**
Chowell et al., 2014 10/1/1411/20/14Yes**
Fasina et al., 2014 10/1/1410/9/14Yes*
Khan et al., 2015 10/1/142/24/15Yes*
Rivers et al., 2014 10/5/1410/16/14Yes***
Xia et al., 2015 10/7/149/8/15Yes**
Majumder et al., 2014 10/11/144/28/15Yes**
Kiskowski, 2014 10/15/1411/13/14Yes**
Fisman and Tuite, 2014 10/18/1411/21/14Yes***
Althaus et al., 2015 10/20/141/15/15Yes***
Simon-Loriere et al., 2015 10/25/146/24/15No*
Rainisch et al., 2015 10/31/146/16/15Yes*
Fast et al., 2015 11/1/145/15/15Yes*
Kucharski et al., 2015 11/1/142/18/15Yes***
Tong et al., 2015 11/11/145/13/15No**
Hoenen et al., 2015 11/21/143/26/15No*
Cope et al., 2014 12/3/1412/10/14Yes**
White et al., 2014 12/3/141/30/15Yes***
WHO Ebola Response Team, 2015 12/14/1412/24/14No**
Chowell et al., 2014 12/17/141/21/15Yes*
Siettos et al., 2014 12/21/143/9/15Yes**
Park et al., 2015 12/26/146/18/15No*
Nadhem and Nejib, 2015 12/30/146/14/15Yes*
Camacho et al., 2015 1/18/152/10/15Yes**
Carroll et al., 2015 1/31/156/17/15No**
Bellan et al., 2015 2/9/154/15/15Yes**
Barbarossa et al., 2015 2/13/157/21/15Yes***
Kugelman et al., 2015 2/14/156/12/15No*
Cleaton et al., 2015 2/28/159/3/15Yes*
Wang and Zhong, 2015 3/18/153/24/15Yes*
Toth et al., 2015 3/31/157/14/15Yes**
Dong et al., 2015 4/3/159/5/15Yes**
Browne et al., 2015 4/12/155/14/15Yes**
Zinszer et al., 2015 5/13/159/1/15Yes*

Additional files

Download links

A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)

Cite this article (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

  1. Jean-Paul Chretien
  2. Steven Riley
  3. Dylan B George
Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic
eLife 4:e09186.