Figures and data in Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic

Figures
Tables
Additional files

7 figures, 1 table and 4 additional files

Figures

Figure 1

Download asset Open asset

Literature search flow.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186.003

Figure 2

Download asset Open asset

Cumulative number of modeling applications by date of most recent EVD data used.

The figure includes 125 modeling applications across the 66 publications.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186.005

Figure 3

Download asset Open asset

Publication lag by type of modeling application.

The vertical red and turquoise lines indicate the median lag for publications including and not including, respectively, the type of modeling application.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186.006

Figure 4

Download asset Open asset

R₀ estimates by type of model input data.

Aggregate, case counts released by the WHO or Ministries of Health; Line-level, individual-level data from epidemiological investigations; Genomic, Ebola virus sequence data. The Figure excludes an outlier estimate of 8.33 for Sierra Leone (Fisman et al., 2014).

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186.007

Figure 5

Download asset Open asset

R₀ estimates and CIs by type of epidemiological input data.

Disaggregated data typically were weekly counts. Top row: Vertical lines indicate 95% CIs. Bottom row: Horizontal bars indicate median CI width.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186.008

Figure 6

Download asset Open asset

R₀ estimates and CIs by model fitting method.

Top row: Vertical lines indicate 95% CIs. Bottom row: Horizontal bars indicate median CI width.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186.009

Figure 7

Download asset Open asset

Accuracy of cumulative incidence forecasts.

Accuracy is shown as the ratio of predicted incidence to incidence subsequently reported by the WHO. 'Dampening' refers to various approaches to restrict the growth of forecasted incidence over time. Top row: Accuracy by date of forecast. Bottom row: Accuracy by forecast lead time ('Horizon'). The Figure excludes one forecast with horizon > 1 year (Fisman and Tuite, 2014).

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186.010

Tables

Table 1

Overview of modeling publications on the 2013-present EVD epidemic.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186.004

Ref.	Date of latest EVD data	Date published	EVD data was pre-existing and public	Uncertainties addressed
Ref.	Date of latest EVD data	Date published	EVD data was pre-existing and public	R	Interventions	Forecast	Spread	Phylogenetics	Clinical trials
Baize et al., 2014	3/20/14	4/16/14	No					*
Dudas and Rambaut, 2014	3/20/14	5/2/14	Yes					*
Alizon et al., 2014	6/18/14	12/13/14	Yes	*		*
Gire et al., 2014	6/18/14	8/28/14	No				*	*
Stadler et al., 2014	6/18/14	10/6/14	Yes	*
Volz and Pond, 2014	6/18/14	10/24/14	Yes	*
Pandey et al., 2014	8/7/14	10/30/14	Yes	*	*	*
Gomes et al., 2014	8/9/14	9/2/14	Yes	*		*	*
Valdez et al., 2015	8/15/14	7/20/15	Yes	*	*	*	*
Merler et al., 2015	8/16/14	1/7/15	Yes	*	*	*	*
Rainisch et al., 2015	8/16/14	2/18/15	Yes				*
Althaus, 2014	8/20/14	9/2/14	Yes	*
Fisman et al., 2014	8/22/14	9/8/14	Yes	*		*
Nishiura and Chowell, 2014	8/26/14	9/11/14	Yes	*		*
Poletto et al., 2014	8/27/14	10/23/14	Yes		*		*
Meltzer et al., 2014	8/28/14	9/26/14	Yes	*	*	*
Agusto et al., 2015	8/29/14	4/23/15	Yes	*	*
Althaus, 2015	8/31/14	4/19/15	Yes	*
Scarpino et al., 2014	8/31/14	12/15/14	Yes	*
Weitz and Dushoff, 2015	8/31/14	3/4/15	Yes	*	*
Drake et al., 2015	9/2/14	10/30/14	Yes	*	*	*
Towers et al., 2014	9/8/14	9/18/14	Yes	*		*
Bellan et al., 2014	9/14/14	10/14/14	Yes			*
Chowell et al., 2015	9/14/14	1/19/15	Yes		*
Cooper et al., 2015	9/14/14	4/14/15	Yes						*
Read et al., 2015	9/14/14	11/12/14	Yes		*		*
WHO Ebola Response Team, 2014	9/14/14	9/23/14	No	*		*	*
Faye et al., 2015	9/16/14	1/23/15	No	*	*
Bogoch et al., 2015	9/21/14	10/21/14	Yes		*		*
Yamin et al., 2014	9/22/14	10/28/14	No	*	*
Lewnard et al., 2014	9/23/14	10/24/14	Yes	*	*	*
Webb et al., 2015	9/23/14	1/30/15	Yes	*	*	*
Shaman et al., 2014	9/28/14	10/27/14	Yes	*		*
Chowell et al., 2014	10/1/14	11/20/14	Yes	*		*
Fasina et al., 2014	10/1/14	10/9/14	Yes		*
Khan et al., 2015	10/1/14	2/24/15	Yes	*
Rivers et al., 2014	10/5/14	10/16/14	Yes	*	*	*
Xia et al., 2015	10/7/14	9/8/15	Yes	*	*
Majumder et al., 2014	10/11/14	4/28/15	Yes	*	*
Kiskowski, 2014	10/15/14	11/13/14	Yes	*		*
Fisman and Tuite, 2014	10/18/14	11/21/14	Yes	*	*	*
Althaus et al., 2015	10/20/14	1/15/15	Yes	*	*	*
Simon-Loriere et al., 2015	10/25/14	6/24/15	No					*
Rainisch et al., 2015	10/31/14	6/16/15	Yes				*
Fast et al., 2015	11/1/14	5/15/15	Yes		*
Kucharski et al., 2015	11/1/14	2/18/15	Yes	*	*	*
Tong et al., 2015	11/11/14	5/13/15	No				*	*
Hoenen et al., 2015	11/21/14	3/26/15	No					*
Cope et al., 2014	12/3/14	12/10/14	Yes		*		*
White et al., 2014	12/3/14	1/30/15	Yes	*	*	*
WHO Ebola Response Team, 2015	12/14/14	12/24/14	No	*		*
Chowell et al., 2014	12/17/14	1/21/15	Yes	*
Siettos et al., 2014	12/21/14	3/9/15	Yes	*		*
Park et al., 2015	12/26/14	6/18/15	No					*
Nadhem and Nejib, 2015	12/30/14	6/14/15	Yes			*
Camacho et al., 2015	1/18/15	2/10/15	Yes	*		*
Carroll et al., 2015	1/31/15	6/17/15	No				*	*
Bellan et al., 2015	2/9/15	4/15/15	Yes			*			*
Barbarossa et al., 2015	2/13/15	7/21/15	Yes	*	*	*
Kugelman et al., 2015	2/14/15	6/12/15	No					*
Cleaton et al., 2015	2/28/15	9/3/15	Yes	*
Wang and Zhong, 2015	3/18/15	3/24/15	Yes	*
Toth et al., 2015	3/31/15	7/14/15	Yes		*		*
Dong et al., 2015	4/3/15	9/5/15	Yes		*	*
Browne et al., 2015	4/12/15	5/14/15	Yes	*	*
Zinszer et al., 2015	5/13/15	9/1/15	Yes				*