Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic

  1. Jean-Paul Chretien  Is a corresponding author
  2. Steven Riley
  3. Dylan B George
  1. Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, United States
  2. Imperial College London, United Kingdom
  3. United States Department of Health and Human Services, United States

Abstract

As of November 2015, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that began in West Africa in late 2013 is waning. The human toll includes more than 28,000 Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases and 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the most heavily-affected countries. We reviewed 66 mathematical modeling studies of the EVD epidemic published in the peer-reviewed literature to assess the key uncertainties models addressed, data used for modeling, public sharing of data and results, and model performance. Based on the review, we suggest steps to improve the use of modeling in future public health emergencies.

Article and author information

Author details

  1. Jean-Paul Chretien

    Division of Integrated Biosurveillance, Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Silver Spring, United States
    For correspondence
    JPChretien@gmail.com
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  2. Steven Riley

    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  3. Dylan B George

    Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, United States Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, United States
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.

Reviewing Editor

  1. Mark Jit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England, United Kingdom

Version history

  1. Received: June 2, 2015
  2. Accepted: November 19, 2015
  3. Accepted Manuscript published: December 8, 2015 (version 1)
  4. Version of Record published: February 16, 2016 (version 2)

Copyright

© 2015, Chretien et al.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

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  1. Jean-Paul Chretien
  2. Steven Riley
  3. Dylan B George
(2015)
Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic
eLife 4:e09186.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186

Share this article

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186

Further reading

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    The aim of our study was to test the hypothesis that the community contact tracing strategy of testing contacts in households immediately instead of at the end of quarantine had an impact on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in schools in Reggio Emilia Province.

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    Results:

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    Prompt contact testing in the community reduces the time of contact tracing and increases the ability to identify the source of infection in school outbreaks. Although there are strong reasons for thinking it is a causal link, observed differences can be also due to differences in the force of infection and to other control measures put in place.

    Funding:

    This project was carried out with the technical and financial support of the Italian Ministry of Health – CCM 2020 and Ricerca Corrente Annual Program 2023.

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