Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic

Abstract
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Abstract

As of November 2015, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that began in West Africa in late 2013 is waning. The human toll includes more than 28,000 Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases and 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the most heavily-affected countries. We reviewed 66 mathematical modeling studies of the EVD epidemic published in the peer-reviewed literature to assess the key uncertainties models addressed, data used for modeling, public sharing of data and results, and model performance. Based on the review, we suggest steps to improve the use of modeling in future public health emergencies.

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Jean-Paul Chretien

Division of Integrated Biosurveillance, Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Silver Spring, United States

For correspondence
JPChretien@gmail.com

Competing interests
The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
Steven Riley

MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Competing interests
The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
Dylan B George

Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, United States Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, United States

Competing interests
The authors declare that no competing interests exist.

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This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.