(a) Animals are presented with stimuli shaped like the kernels in Figure 3. Predicted (black bar) and observed (color bar) changes in transition rate are shown for transitions into each kernel-shaped stimulus’ corresponding behavior. For example, a 'Forward 3'-shaped stimulus increases transitions into 'Forward 3' (mustard bar). For five of the six behaviors, stimulation evoked increased transitions into their corresponding behaviors, as predicted. Transition rate changes are measured with respect to baseline (see 'Materials and methods'). Significance was estimated via a t-test and error bars show the standard error of the mean. The number of stimulus-animal presentations, from left to right, were 14,238, 13,612, 14,699, 14,424, 14,194 and 13,708. Of these, the number of timely transitions observed were 14,00, 1,428, 1,692, 944, 191 and 513. The p-values were 2.2e–1, 5.6e–6, 1e–4, 3.4e–5, 7.5e–2, 9.5e–1. (b) The LN model predicts details of the animal’s behavioral response. For each point in time, the LN model predicts the change from baseline of transition rates for all nine behaviors in response to a stimulus. Detailed responses to 'Forward 4'- and 'Forward 5'-kernel-shaped stimuli are shown (see Figure 4—figure supplement 1 for the rest). Raw transitions rates (light colored shading), smoothed transition rates (colored line) and LN prediction (solid black line) are shown. For stimuli that are shaped like 'Forward 4', the LN model correctly predicts not only that transitions into 'Forward 4' increase but also that transitions into 'Forward 5' and '6' decrease. Light gray shading indicates the 2 s time window used to calculate transition rates for the transitions shown in (A) (orange and pink arrows). Of 13,612 and 14,699 presentations for 'Forward 4'- and '5'-kernel shaped stimuli, respectively, the following number of transitions were observed in the 20 s window: by row for 'Forward 4'-shaped 1,265, 1,330, 12,312, 11,962, 13,436, 6,861, 1,735, 4,934 and 2,864, and for 'Forward 5'-shaped 1,198, 1,437, 13,657, 13,538, 14,656, 7,295, 1,673, 5,506 and 3,118.