Coupling adaptive molecular evolution to phylodynamics using fitness-dependent birth-death models
Abstract
Beneficial and deleterious mutations cause the fitness of lineages to vary across a phylogeny and thereby shape its branching structure. While standard phylogenetic models do not allow mutations to feedback and shape trees, birth-death models can account for this feedback by letting the fitness of lineages depend on their type. To date, these multi-type birth-death models have only been applied to cases where a lineage's fitness is determined by a single character state. We extend these models to track sequence evolution at multiple sites. This approach remains computationally tractable by tracking the genotype and fitness of lineages probabilistically in an approximate manner. Although approximate, we show that we can accurately estimate the fitness of lineages and site-specific mutational fitness effects from phylogenies. We apply this approach to estimate the population-level fitness effects of mutations in Ebola and influenza virus, and compare our estimates with in vitro fitness measurements for these mutations.
Data availability
All data and code required to reproduce our Ebola analysis in its entirety is available at https://github.com/davidrasm/Lumiere/tree/master/ebola. The sequence alignment along with the timecalibrated molecular phylogeny we used for our analysis were downloaded from https://github.com/ebov/space-time/tree/master/Data. Dataset S3 of Lee et al. 2018 was downloaded from https://www.pnas.org/highwire/filestream/822898/field_highwire_adjunct_files/3/pnas.1806133115.sd03.xlsx.
Article and author information
Author details
Funding
Seventh Framework Programme (European Research Commission)
- Tanja Stadler
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Copyright
© 2019, Rasmussen & Stadler
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
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Further reading
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Copy number variants (CNVs) are an important source of genetic variation underlying rapid adaptation and genome evolution. Whereas point mutation rates vary with genomic location and local DNA features, the role of genome architecture in the formation and evolutionary dynamics of CNVs is poorly understood. Previously, we found the GAP1 gene in Saccharomyces cerevisiae undergoes frequent amplification and selection in glutamine-limitation. The gene is flanked by two long terminal repeats (LTRs) and proximate to an origin of DNA replication (autonomously replicating sequence, ARS), which likely promote rapid GAP1 CNV formation. To test the role of these genomic elements on CNV-mediated adaptive evolution, we evolved engineered strains lacking either the adjacent LTRs, ARS, or all elements in glutamine-limited chemostats. Using a CNV reporter system and neural network simulation-based inference (nnSBI) we quantified the formation rate and fitness effect of CNVs for each strain. Removal of local DNA elements significantly impacts the fitness effect of GAP1 CNVs and the rate of adaptation. In 177 CNV lineages, across all four strains, between 26% and 80% of all GAP1 CNVs are mediated by Origin Dependent Inverted Repeat Amplification (ODIRA) which results from template switching between the leading and lagging strand during DNA synthesis. In the absence of the local ARS, distal ones mediate CNV formation via ODIRA. In the absence of local LTRs, homologous recombination can mediate gene amplification following de novo retrotransposon events. Our study reveals that template switching during DNA replication is a prevalent source of adaptive CNVs.
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The majority of highly polymorphic genes are related to immune functions and with over 100 alleles within a population, genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are the most polymorphic loci in vertebrates. How such extraordinary polymorphism arose and is maintained is controversial. One possibility is heterozygote advantage (HA), which can in principle maintain any number of alleles, but biologically explicit models based on this mechanism have so far failed to reliably predict the coexistence of significantly more than 10 alleles. We here present an eco-evolutionary model showing that evolution can result in the emergence and maintenance of more than 100 alleles under HA if the following two assumptions are fulfilled: first, pathogens are lethal in the absence of an appropriate immune defence; second, the effect of pathogens depends on host condition, with hosts in poorer condition being affected more strongly. Thus, our results show that HA can be a more potent force in explaining the extraordinary polymorphism found at MHC loci than currently recognised.