(A) Participants were trained to place the center of a shield (green tick; prediction phase [left]) at the aim location of a cannon (training task [top]) in order to block a cannonball shot from it …
(A) In the changepoint condition, surprising events (changepoints) signaled a transition in the aim of the cannon whereas (B) in the oddball condition, surprising events (oddballs) were unrelated to …
Model described in Figure 2E was altered such that PE*Surprise and PE*Surprise*Condition terms were replaced with two terms that separately modeled the effect of surprise on updating behavior in the …
(A) Trial-series of EEG data for a given electrode and timepoint was regressed onto an explanatory matrix that contained separate binary regressors for changepoint and oddball trials (left). A …
Raw regression coefficients computed per subject (points) averaged across electrode/timepoints for P300 component. Within these clusters, both changepoint (yellow) and oddball (blue) coefficients …
(A) Trial-series of EEG data for a given electrode and timepoint was regressed onto an explanatory matrix that contained separate binary regressors for changepoint and oddball trials (left). A …
(A) T-maps corresponding to significant spatiotemporal clusters were used as templates to estimate trial-by-trial signal strength. (B) Single trial updates for each participant were fit with a …
Points reflect best-fitting coefficients for individual subjects in an alternative model of update behavior that included separate PE*EEG signal terms for the two different task conditions. Bar and …
(A) Single trial updates for each participant were fit with a regression model that included the best estimates of learning rate provided by our behavioral regression model (β times PE times …
Subscripts denote time, colored arrows depict the causal influence of an unlikely event (oddball or changepoint) on current and future outcomes. Note that changepoints (left) affect both current and …
Exact parametric solutions to inference in the changepoint (left) and oddball (right) are possible for a given event history (e.g., S is known at all timesteps). Exact solutions can be approximated …
Top: proportion of good epochs for each participant. Middle/bottom: analysis results for different exclusion criteria. Lines/shading reflect mean/SEM conditional learning coefficients in the base …