Spatio-temporal associations between deforestation and malaria incidence in Lao PDR
- University of California, San Francisco, United States
- University of Massachusetts-Amherst, United States
- University of California, Berkeley, United States
- Ministry of Health, Lao PDR, Lao People's Democratic Republic
Abstract
As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases in confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.
Data availability
All data generated or analysed during this study are included in the manuscript and supporting files. Source data files have been provided for Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5 and for Tables 1, 2 and 3.
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Global Forest Change 2000-201810.1126/science.1244693.
Article and author information
Author details
Funding
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1116450)
- Francois Rerolle
- Emily Dantzer
- Andrew A Lover
- Bouasy Hongvanthong
- Hugh JW Sturrock
- Adam Bennett
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Ethics
Human subjects: This study was approved by the National Ethics Committee for Health Research at the Lao Ministry of Health (Approval #2016-014; 8/22/2016) and by the UCSF ethical review board (Approvals #16-19649 and #17-22577). The informed consent process was consistent with local norms, and all study areas had a consultation meeting with, and approvals from, village elders. All participants provided informed written consent; caregivers provided consent for all children under 18, and all children aged 10 and above also provided consent directly. The study was conducted according to the ethical principles of the Declaration of Helsinki of October 2002.
Reviewing Editor
- Ben S Cooper, Mahidol University, Thailand
Version history
- Received: March 16, 2020
- Accepted: February 19, 2021
- Accepted Manuscript published: March 9, 2021 (version 1)
- Version of Record published: April 6, 2021 (version 2)
Copyright
© 2021, Rerolle et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
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Spatio-temporal associations between deforestation and malaria incidence in Lao PDR
eLife 10:e56974.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.56974
Further reading
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How does cutting down forests influence the spread of malaria?
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- Epidemiology and Global Health
Background:
Irregular sleep-wake timing may cause circadian disruption leading to several chronic age-related diseases. We examined the relationship between sleep regularity and risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality in 88,975 participants from the prospective UK Biobank cohort.
Methods:
The sleep regularity index (SRI) was calculated as the probability of an individual being in the same state (asleep or awake) at any two time points 24 hr apart, averaged over 7 days of accelerometry (range 0–100, with 100 being perfectly regular). The SRI was related to the risk of mortality in time-to-event models.
Results:
The mean sample age was 62 years (standard deviation [SD], 8), 56% were women, and the median SRI was 60 (SD, 10). There were 3010 deaths during a mean follow-up of 7.1 years. Following adjustments for demographic and clinical variables, we identified a non-linear relationship between the SRI and all-cause mortality hazard (p [global test of spline term]<0.001). Hazard ratios, relative to the median SRI, were 1.53 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.41, 1.66) for participants with SRI at the 5th percentile (SRI = 41) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.00) for those with SRI at the 95th percentile (SRI = 75), respectively. Findings for CVD mortality and cancer mortality followed a similar pattern.
Conclusions:
Irregular sleep-wake patterns are associated with higher mortality risk.
Funding:
National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (GTN2009264; GTN1158384), National Institute on Aging (AG062531), Alzheimer’s Association (2018-AARG-591358), and the Banting Fellowship Program (#454104).
