Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset
Abstract
Understanding and mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission hinges on antibody and viral RNA data that inform exposure and shedding, but extensive variation in assays, study group demographics and laboratory protocols across published studies confounds inference of true biological patterns. Our meta-analysis leverages 3,214 datapoints from 516 individuals in 21 studies to reveal that seroconversion of both IgG and IgM occurs around 12 days post symptom onset (range 1-40), with extensive individual variation that is not significantly associated with disease severity. IgG and IgM detection probabilities increase from roughly 10% at symptom onset to 98-100% by day 22, after which IgM wanes while IgG remains reliably detectable. RNA detection probability decreases from roughly 90% to zero by day 30, and is highest in faeces and lower respiratory tract samples. Our findings provide a coherent evidence base for interpreting clinical diagnostics, and for the mathematical models and serological surveys that underpin public health policies.
Data availability
All data are available in Source data 1.
Article and author information
Author details
Funding
H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (707840)
- Benny Borremans
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (PREEMPT D18AC00031)
- Amandine Gamble
- James O Lloyd-Smith
UCLA AIDS Institute and Charity Treks
- Amandine Gamble
- James O Lloyd-Smith
National Science Foundation (DEB-1557022)
- K C Prager
- James O Lloyd-Smith
US Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (RC‐2635)
- K C Prager
- James O Lloyd-Smith
Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (Cooperative Agreement W9132T1920006)
- K C Prager
- James O Lloyd-Smith
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Copyright
© 2020, Borremans et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
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Further reading
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- Epidemiology and Global Health
Background:
The associations of age at diagnosis of breast cancer with incident myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF) remain unexamined. Addressing this problem could promote understanding of the cardiovascular impact of breast cancer.
Methods:
Data were obtained from the UK Biobank. Information on the diagnosis of breast cancer, MI, and HF was collected at baseline and follow-ups (median = 12.8 years). The propensity score matching method and Cox proportional hazards models were employed.
Results:
A total of 251,277 female participants (mean age: 56.8 ± 8.0 years), of whom 16,241 had breast cancer, were included. Among breast cancer participants, younger age at diagnosis (per 10-year decrease) was significantly associated with elevated risks of MI (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19–1.56, p<0.001) and HF (HR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.18–1.46, p<0.001). After propensity score matching, breast cancer patients with younger diagnosis age had significantly higher risks of MI and HF than controls without breast cancer.
Conclusions:
Younger age at diagnosis of breast cancer was associated with higher risks of incident MI and HF, underscoring the necessity to pay additional attention to the cardiovascular health of breast cancer patients diagnosed at younger age to conduct timely interventions to attenuate the subsequent risks of incident cardiovascular diseases.
Funding:
This study was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82373665 and 81974490), the Nonprofit Central Research Institute Fund of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (2021-RC330-001), and the 2022 China Medical Board-open competition research grant (22-466).
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- Epidemiology and Global Health
- Genetics and Genomics
Background:
Maternal smoking has been linked to adverse health outcomes in newborns but the extent to which it impacts newborn health has not been quantified through an aggregated cord blood DNA methylation (DNAm) score. Here, we examine the feasibility of using cord blood DNAm scores leveraging large external studies as discovery samples to capture the epigenetic signature of maternal smoking and its influence on newborns in White European and South Asian populations.
Methods:
We first examined the association between individual CpGs and cigarette smoking during pregnancy, and smoking exposure in two White European birth cohorts (n=744). Leveraging established CpGs for maternal smoking, we constructed a cord blood epigenetic score of maternal smoking that was validated in one of the European-origin cohorts (n=347). This score was then tested for association with smoking status, secondary smoking exposure during pregnancy, and health outcomes in offspring measured after birth in an independent White European (n=397) and a South Asian birth cohort (n=504).
Results:
Several previously reported genes for maternal smoking were supported, with the strongest and most consistent association signal from the GFI1 gene (6 CpGs with p<5 × 10-5). The epigenetic maternal smoking score was strongly associated with smoking status during pregnancy (OR = 1.09 [1.07, 1.10], p=5.5 × 10-33) and more hours of self-reported smoking exposure per week (1.93 [1.27, 2.58], p=7.8 × 10-9) in White Europeans. However, it was not associated with self-reported exposure (p>0.05) among South Asians, likely due to a lack of smoking in this group. The same score was consistently associated with a smaller birth size (–0.37±0.12 cm, p=0.0023) in the South Asian cohort and a lower birth weight (–0.043±0.013 kg, p=0.0011) in the combined cohorts.
Conclusions:
This cord blood epigenetic score can help identify babies exposed to maternal smoking and assess its long-term impact on growth. Notably, these results indicate a consistent association between the DNAm signature of maternal smoking and a small body size and low birth weight in newborns, in both White European mothers who exhibited some amount of smoking and in South Asian mothers who themselves were not active smokers.
Funding:
This study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research Metabolomics Team Grant: MWG-146332.