Outcomes can vary even when choices are repeated. Such ambiguity necessitates adjusting how much to learn from each outcome by tracking its variability. The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) has been reported to signal the expected outcome and its discrepancy from the actual outcome (prediction error), two variables essential for controlling the learning rate. However, the source of signals that shape these coding properties remains unknown. Here, we investigated the contribution of cholinergic projections from the basal forebrain because they carry precisely timed signals about outcomes. One-photon calcium imaging revealed that as mice learned different probabilities of threat occurrence on two paths, some mPFC cells responded to threats on one of the paths, while other cells gained responses to threat omission. These threat- and omission-evoked responses were scaled to the unexpectedness of outcomes, some exhibiting a reversal in response direction when encountering surprising threats as opposed to surprising omissions. This selectivity for signed prediction errors was enhanced by optogenetic stimulation of local cholinergic terminals during threats. The enhanced threat-evoked cholinergic signals also made mice erroneously abandon the correct choice after a single threat that violated expectations, thereby decoupling their path choice from the history of threat occurrence on each path. Thus, acetylcholine modulates the encoding of surprising outcomes in the mPFC to control how much they dictate future decisions.

Quantitative information about synaptic transmission is key to our understanding of neural function. Spontaneously occurring synaptic events carry fundamental information about synaptic function and plasticity. However, their stochastic nature and low signal-to-noise ratio present major challenges for the reliable and consistent analysis. Here, we introduce miniML, a supervised deep learning-based method for accurate classification and automated detection of spontaneous synaptic events. Comparative analysis using simulated ground-truth data shows that miniML outperforms existing event analysis methods in terms of both precision and recall. miniML enables precise detection and quantification of synaptic events in electrophysiological recordings. We demonstrate that the deep learning approach generalizes easily to diverse synaptic preparations, different electrophysiological and optical recording techniques, and across animal species. miniML provides not only a comprehensive and robust framework for automated, reliable, and standardized analysis of synaptic events, but also opens new avenues for high-throughput investigations of neural function and dysfunction.