Investigating phenotypes of pulmonary COVID-19 recovery: A longitudinal observational prospective multicenter trial
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Medical University of Innsbruck, Austria
- Department of Radiology, Medical University of Innsbruck, Austria
- The Karl Landsteiner Institute, Austria
- Central Institute of Medical and Chemical Laboratory Diagnostics, University Hospital Innsbruck, Austria
- Munich Leukemia Laboratory, Germany
- Department of Internal Medicine, St. Vinzenz Hospital, Austria
Figures
Figure 1
Study inclusion flow diagram and analysis scheme.
Figure 2
Kinetic of recovery from COVID-19 symptoms.
Recovery from any COVID-19 symptoms was investigated by mixed-effect logistic modeling (random effect: individual; fixed effect: time). Significance was determined by the likelihood ratio test …
Figure 3 with 3 supplements
Kinetic of pulmonary recovery.
Recovery from any lung computed tomography (CT) abnormalities, moderate-to-severe lung CT abnormalities (severity score > 5), and recovery from functional lung impairment were investigated in the …
Figure 3—figure supplement 1
Co-occurrence of lung computed tomography (CT) abnormalities, functional lung impairment, and any persistent symptoms.
Numbers and percentages of the study participants with any persistent symptoms, functional lung impairment, or lung CT abnormalities at the consecutive follow-up visits presented in …
Figure 3—figure supplement 2
Co-occurrence of moderate-to-severe lung computed tomography (CT) abnormalities, functional lung impairment, and any persistent symptoms.
Numbers and percentages of the study participants with any persistent symptoms, functional lung impairment, or moderate-to-severe lung CT abnormalities (severity score > 5) at the consecutive …
Figure 3—figure supplement 3
Frequency of mild and moderate-to-severe lung computed tomography (CT) abnormalities.
Prognostic value of functional lung impairment and persistent symptoms for prediction of radiological lung abnormalities. (A) Relevance of functional lung impairment and persistent COVID-19 symptoms …
Figure 4
Risk factors of persistent radiological lung abnormalities.
Association of 52 binary explanatory variables (Appendix 1—table 1) with the presence of any lung computed tomography (CT) abnormalities (A) or moderate-to-severe lung CT abnormalities (severity …
Figure 5
Risk factors of persistent functional lung impairment.
Association of 52 binary explanatory variables (Appendix 1—table 1) with the presence of functional lung impairment at the 180-day follow-up visit was investigated with a series of univariate …
Figure 6 with 2 supplements
Association of incomplete symptom, lung function, and radiological lung recovery with demographic and clinical parameters of acute COVID-19 and early recovery.
Clustering of 52 non-computed tomography (non-CT) and non-lung function binary explanatory variables recorded for acute COVID-19 or at the early 60-day follow-up visit (Appendix 1—table 1) was …
Figure 6—figure supplement 1
Study feature clustering algorithm.
Clustering of 52 non-computed tomography (non-CT) and non-lung function binary explanatory variables recorded for acute COVID-19 or at the early 60-day follow-up visit (Appendix 1—table 1). (A, B) …
Figure 6—figure supplement 2
Semi-supervised clustering of mild and moderate-to-severe lung computed tomography (CT) abnormalities, functional lung impairment, and persistent symptoms at the 180-day follow-up with parameters of acute COVID-19 and early convalescence.
Clusters of 52 non-CT and non-lung function binary explanatory variables recorded for acute COVID-19 or at the 60-day follow-up visit (Appendix 1—table 1) were defined by the optimally performing …
Figure 7 with 2 supplements
Clustering of the study participants by non-lung function and non-computed tomography (non-CT) clinical features.
Study participants (n = 133 with the complete variable set) were clustered with respect to 52 non-CT and non-lung function binary explanatory variables recorded for acute COVID-19 or at the 60-day …
Figure 7—figure supplement 1
Study participant clustering algorithm.
Clustering of the study participants (n = 133 with the complete variable set) with respect to 52 non-computed tomography (non-CT) and non-lung function binary explanatory variables recorded for …
Figure 7—figure supplement 2
Impact of specific variables on the quality of participant clustering.
The clusters of participants clusters were defined with the optimally performing self-organizing map (SOM)/HCl algorithm with simple matching distance (SMD) observation dissimilarity measure as …
Figure 8 with 1 supplement
Frequency of persistent radiological lung abnormalities, functional lung impairment, and symptoms in the participant clusters.
The clusters of study participants were defined by non-lung function and non-computed tomography (non-CT) features as presented in Figure 7. Frequencies of outcome variables at the 180-day follow-up …
Figure 8—figure supplement 1
Risk of radiological lung abnormalities at the 180-day follow-up in the participant clusters.
The clusters of participants were defined by non-lung function and non-computed tomography (non-CT) clinical features of acute COVID-19 and early convalescence (60-day follow-up visit, Appendix …
Figure 9 with 7 supplements
Prediction of persistent radiological lung abnormalities, functional lung impairment, and symptoms by machine learning algorithms.
Single machine learning classifiers (C5.0; RF: random forests; SVM-R: support vector machines with radial kernel; NNet: neural network; glmNet: elastic net) and their ensemble (Ens) were trained in …
Figure 9—figure supplement 1
Correlation of the machine learning algorithm prediction accuracy.
Machine learning classifiers (C5.0; RF: random forests; SVM-R: support vector machines with radial kernel; NNet: neural network; glmNet: elastic net) were trained in the cohort data set with 52 …
Figure 9—figure supplement 2
Machine learning model ensembles.
Single machine learning classifiers (C5.0; RF: random forests; SVM-R: support vector machines with radial kernel; NNet: neural network; glmNet: elastic net) were trained as shown in Figure 9. The …
Figure 9—figure supplement 3
Prediction of persistent radiological lung abnormalities, functional lung impairment, and symptoms by machine learning algorithms in the training data sets.
Single machine learning classifiers (C5.0; RF: random forests; SVM-R: support vector machines with radial kernel; NNet: neural network; glmNet: elastic net) and their ensembles were trained as shown …
Figure 9—figure supplement 4
Variable importance statistics for prediction of lung computed tomography (CT) abnormalities at the 180-day follow-up by machine learning classifiers.
C5.0, random forests (RF), and elastic net (glmNet) classifiers were trained as presented in Figure 9 for prediction of any lung CT abnormalities at the 180-day follow-up visit. Variable importance …
Figure 9—figure supplement 5
Variable importance statistics for prediction of moderate-to-severe lung computed tomography (CT) abnormalities at the 180-day follow-up by machine learning classifiers.
C5.0, random forests (RF), and elastic net (glmNet) classifiers were trained as presented in Figure 9 for prediction of moderate-to-severe lung CT abnormalities (severity score > 5) at the 180-day …
Figure 9—figure supplement 6
Variable importance statistics for prediction of functional lung impairment at the 180-day follow-up by machine learning classifiers.
C5.0, random forests (RF), and elastic net (glmNet) classifiers were trained as presented in Figure 9 for prediction of functional lung impairment at the 180-day follow-up visit. Variable importance …
Figure 9—figure supplement 7
Variable importance statistics for prediction of persistent symptoms at the 180-day follow-up by machine learning classifiers.
C5.0, random forests (RF), and elastic net (glmNet) classifiers were trained as presented in Figure 9 for prediction of persistent symptoms at the 180-day follow-up visit. Variable importance …
Figure 10
Performance of the machine learning ensemble classifier in mild-to-moderate and severe-to-critical COVID-19 convalescents.
The machine learning classifier ensemble (Ens) was developed as presented in Figure 9. Its performance at predicting outcome variables at the 180-day follow-up visit (any computed tomography [CT] …
Tables
Table 1
Characteristics of the study population.
| Characteristics (% cohort) | |
|---|---|
| Total participants – no. | 145 |
| Mean age, years | 57.3 (SD = 14.3) |
| Female sex | 42.4% (n = 63) |
| Obesity (body mass index >30 kg/m2) | 19.3% (n = 28) |
| Ex-smoker | 39.3% (n = 57) |
| Active smoker | 2.8% (n = 4) |
| Acute COVID-19 severity (% cohort) | |
| Mild: outpatient | 24.8% (n = 36) |
| Moderate: inpatient without oxygen therapy | 25.5% (n = 37) |
| Severe: inpatient with oxygen therapy | 27.6% (n = 40) |
| Critical: intensive care unit | 22.1% (n = 32) |
| Comorbidities (% cohort) | |
| None | 22.8% (n = 33) |
| Cardiovascular disease | 40% (n = 58) |
| Pulmonary disease | 18.6% (n = 27) |
| Metabolic disease | 43.4% (n = 63) |
| Chronic kidney disease | 6.9% (n = 10) |
| Gastrointestinal tract diseases | 13.8% (n = 20) |
| Malignancy | 11.7% (n = 17) |
Table 2
Hospitalization and medication during acute COVID-19.
| Parameter | Outpatient (n = 36) | Hospitalized (n = 37) | Hospitalized oxygen therapy (n = 40) | Hospitalized intensive care unit (n = 32) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean hospitalization time, days | 0 (SD = 0) | 6.9 (SD = 3.6) | 11.8 (SD = 6.3) | 34.8 (SD = 15.7) |
| Hospitalized >7 days | 0% (n = 0) | 43.2% (n = 16) | 80% (n = 32) | 100% (n = 32) |
| Anti-infectives | 11.1% (n = 4) | 45.9% (n = 17) | 72.5% (n = 29) | 87.5% (n = 28) |
| Antiplatelet drugs | 2.8% (n = 1) | 10.8% (n = 4) | 22.5% (n = 9) | 25% (n = 8) |
| Anticoagulatives | 2.8% (n = 1) | 2.7% (n = 1) | 5% (n = 2) | 15.6% (n = 5) |
| Corticosteroids*† | 2.8% (n = 1) | 5.4% (n = 2) | 22.5% (n = 9) | 40.6% (n = 13) |
| Immunosuppression‡† | 0% (n = 0) | 2.7% (n = 1) | 5% (n = 2) | 9.4% (n = 3) |
-
*
From the week 4 post diagnosis on, at the discretion of the physician.
-
†
Subsumed under ‘immunosuppression, acute COVID-19’ for data analysis.
-
‡
Immunosuppressive medication prior to COVID-19.
Table 3
Radiological, functional, and clinical study outcomes.
| Outcome | 60-day follow-up | 100-day follow-up | 180-day follow-up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any lung CT abnormalities (complete: n = 103) | 74.8% (n = 77) | 60.2% (n = 62) | 48.5% (n = 50) |
| Mild lung CT abnormalities (severity score ≤ 5) (complete: n = 103) | 26.2% (n = 27) | 36.9% (n = 38) | 29.1% (n = 30) |
| Moderate-to-severe CT abnormalities (severity score > 5) (complete: n = 103) | 48.5% (n = 50) | 23.3% (n = 24) | 19.4% (n = 20) |
| Functional lung impairment (complete: n = 116) | 39.7% (n = 46) | 37.1% (n = 43) | 33.6% (n = 39) |
| Persistent symptoms (complete: n = 145) | 79.3% (n = 115) | 67.6% (n = 98) | 49% (n = 71) |
-
CT = computed tomography.
Appendix 1—table 1
Study variables.
Variable: variable name in the analysis pipeline; reference time point: study visit, the variable was recorded at; label: variable label in figures and tables.
| Variable | Reference time point | Label | Variable type | Stratification cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| sex_male_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Male sex | Explanatory | |
| obesity_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Obesity | Explanatory | BMI > 30 kg/m2 |
| current_smoker_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Current smoker | Explanatory | |
| smoking_ex_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Ex-smoker | Explanatory | |
| CVDis_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | CVD | Explanatory | |
| hypertension_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Hypertension | Explanatory | |
| PDis_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | PD | Explanatory | |
| COPD_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | COPD | Explanatory | |
| asthma_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Asthma | Explanatory | |
| endocrine_metabolic_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Metabolic disorders | Explanatory | |
| hypercholesterolemia_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Hypercholesterolemia | Explanatory | |
| diabetes_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Diabetes | Explanatory | |
| CKDis_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | CKD | Explanatory | |
| GITDis_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | GITD | Explanatory | |
| malignancy_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Malignancy | Explanatory | |
| immune_deficiency_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Immune deficiency | Explanatory | |
| weight_change_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Weight loss, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | ≥1 kg |
| dyspnoe_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Dyspnea, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| cough_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Cough, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| fever_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Fever, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| night_sweat_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Night sweat, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| pain_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Pain, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| GI_sympt_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | GI symptoms, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| anosmia_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Anosmia, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| ECOG_imp_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Impaired performance, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | ECOG ≥ 1 |
| sleep_disorder_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Sleep disorders, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| treat_antiinfec_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Anti-infectives, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| treat_antiplat_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Antiplatelet, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| treat_anticoag_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| treat_immunosuppr_rec_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Immunosuppression, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| anemia_rec_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Anemia, 60-day visit | Explanatory | Male: Hb < 14 g/dL; female: Hb <12 g/dL |
| ferr_elv_rec_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Elevated ferritin, 60-day visit | Explanatory | Male: > 300 ng/mL; female: > 150 ng/mL |
| NTelv_rec_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit | Explanatory | >125 pg/mL |
| Ddimerelv_rec_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit | Explanatory | >500 pg/mL FEU |
| CRP_elv_rec_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Elevated CRP, 60-day visit | Explanatory | >0.5 mg/dL |
| IL6_elv_rec_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Elevated IL-6, 60-day visit | Explanatory | >7 pg/mL |
| iron_deficiency_30_rec_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Iron deficiency, 60-day visit | Explanatory | TF-saturation < 15% |
| age_65_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Age over 65 | Explanatory | >65 years |
| hosp_7d_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Hospitalized > 7 days, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | >7 days |
| comorb_present_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Any comorbidity | Explanatory | >0 comorbidities |
| comorb_3_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | >3 comorbidities | Explanatory | >3 comorbidities |
| overweight_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Overweight or obesity | Explanatory | BMI > 25 kg/m2 |
| sympt_6_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | >6 symptoms, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | >6 symptoms |
| sympt_present_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Persistent symptoms, 60-day visit | Explanatory | >0 symptoms at 180-day visit |
| ab_0_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q1, 60-day visit | Explanatory | (0, 312] BAU/mL |
| ab_25_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit | Explanatory | (312, 644] BAU/mL |
| ab_50_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit | Explanatory | (644, 975] BAU/mL |
| ab_75_V1 | 60-day follow-up | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit | Explanatory | > 975 BAU/mL |
| pat_group_G1_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Ambulatory, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| pat_group_G2_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Hospitalized, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| pat_group_G3_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | Oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| pat_group_G4_V0 | Acute COVID-19 | ICU, acute COVID-19 | Explanatory | |
| CT_findings_V3 | 180-day follow-up | CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Outcome | |
| CT_sev_low_V3 | 180-day follow-up | CT severity score 1–5 at 180-day visit | Outcome | |
| CTsevabove5_V3 | 180-day follow-up | CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Outcome | |
| sympt_present_V3 | 180-day follow-up | Symptoms at 180-day visit | Outcome | |
| lung_function_impaired_V3 | 180-day follow-up | Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Outcome |
-
CVD = cardiovascular disease; PD = pulmonary disease; COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CKD = chronic kidney disease; GITD = gastrointestinal disease; GI = gastrointestinal; CRP = C-reactive protein; ICU = intensive care unit; CT = computed tomography; BMI = body mass index; BAU = binding antibody unit.
Appendix 1—table 2
Results of univariate risk modeling.
Outcome: outcome variable at the 180-day follow-up visit; covariate: explanatory variable; baseline: reference level of the explanatory variable; OR: odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals; pFDR: …
| Outcome | Covariate | Baseline | Complete cases | OR | pFDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Male sex, n = 63 | No male sex, n = 55 | 118 | 3.79 [1.77–8.44] | p=0.01 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Obesity, n = 22 | No obesity, n = 96 | 118 | 1.07 [0.415–2.72] | ns (p=0.9) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Current smoker, n = 4 | No current smoker, n = 114 | 118 | 0.412 [0.02–3.33] | ns (p=0.51) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Ex-smoker, n = 48 | No ex-smoker, n = 70 | 118 | 1.5 [0.716–3.16] | ns (p=0.36) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | CVD, n = 45 | No CVD, n = 73 | 118 | 3.36 [1.57–7.43] | p=0.012 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Hypertension, n = 34 | No hypertension, n = 84 | 118 | 3.97 [1.73–9.54] | p=0.01 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | PD, n = 24 | No PD, n = 94 | 118 | 2.06 [0.837–5.25] | ns (p=0.2) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | COPD, n = 6 | No COPD, n = 112 | 118 | 2.67 [0.499–19.8] | ns (p=0.34) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Asthma, n = 9 | No asthma, n = 109 | 118 | 1.02 [0.24–4.04] | ns (p=0.99) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Metabolic disorders, n = 50 | No metabolic disorders, n = 68 | 118 | 3.14 [1.48–6.81] | p=0.017 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Hypercholesterolemia, n = 22 | No hypercholesterolemia, n = 96 | 118 | 2.67 [1.04–7.27] | ns (p=0.093) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Diabetes, n = 18 | No diabetes, n = 100 | 118 | 4.07 [1.41–13.5] | p=0.041 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | GITD, n = 17 | No GITD, n = 101 | 118 | 3.66 [1.25–12.2] | ns (p=0.061) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Malignancy, n = 13 | No malignancy, n = 105 | 118 | 19.5 [3.63–362] | p=0.021 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Immune deficiency, n = 5 | No immune deficiency, n = 113 | 118 | 1.96 [0.313–15.3] | ns (p=0.53) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Weight loss, acute COVID-19, n = 84 | No weight loss, acute COVID-19, n = 34 | 118 | 4.45 [1.83–12.1] | p=0.011 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Dyspnea, acute COVID-19, n = 81 | No dyspnea, acute COVID-19, n = 37 | 118 | 1.45 [0.661–3.27] | ns (p=0.43) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Cough, acute COVID-19, n = 83 | No cough, acute COVID-19, n = 35 | 118 | 1.07 [0.484–2.41] | ns (p=0.89) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Fever, acute COVID-19, n = 83 | No fever, acute COVID-19, n = 35 | 118 | 2.56 [1.12–6.21] | ns (p=0.072) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Night sweat, acute COVID-19, n = 74 | No night sweat, acute COVID-19, n = 44 | 118 | 1.93 [0.902–4.26] | ns (p=0.17) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Pain, acute COVID-19, n = 65 | No pain, acute COVID-19, n = 53 | 118 | 0.339 [0.157–0.713] | p=0.021 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | GI symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 47 | No GI symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 71 | 118 | 0.675 [0.316–1.42] | ns (p=0.38) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Anosmia, acute COVID-19, n = 53 | No anosmia, acute COVID-19, n = 65 | 118 | 1.09 [0.526–2.28] | ns (p=0.85) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Impaired performance, acute COVID-19, n = 106 | No impaired performance, acute COVID-19, n = 12 | 118 | 1.12 [0.335–3.98] | ns (p=0.89) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Sleep disorders, acute COVID-19, n = 40 | No sleep disorders, acute COVID-19, n = 77 | 117 | 0.887 [0.407–1.91] | ns (p=0.82) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Anti-infectives, acute COVID-19, n = 64 | No anti-infectives, acute COVID-19, n = 54 | 118 | 3.56 [1.67–7.9] | p=0.01 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Antiplatelet, acute COVID-19, n = 12 | No antiplatelet, acute COVID-19, n = 106 | 118 | 4.4 [1.23–20.7] | ns (p=0.077) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19, n = 4 | No anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19, n = 114 | 118 | 3.98 [0.493–81.8] | ns (p=0.32) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Immunosuppression, acute COVID-19, n = 20 | No immunosuppression, acute COVID-19, n = 98 | 118 | 6.89 [2.32–25.5] | p=0.01 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Anemia, 60-day visit, n = 10 | No anemia, 60-day visit, n = 108 | 118 | 5.82 [1.38–39.8] | ns (p=0.072) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Elevated ferritin, 60-day visit, n = 20 | No elevated ferritin, 60-day visit, n = 98 | 118 | 2.18 [0.825–6.01] | ns (p=0.2) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit, n = 38 | No elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit, n = 80 | 118 | 2.29 [1.05–5.1] | ns (p=0.084) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit, n = 49 | No elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit, n = 69 | 118 | 2.9 [1.37–6.28] | p=0.023 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Elevated CRP, 60-day visit, n = 18 | No elevated CRP, 60-day visit, n = 100 | 118 | 5.71 [1.89–21.3] | p=0.019 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Elevated IL-6, 60-day visit, n = 11 | No elevated IL-6, 60-day visit, n = 107 | 118 | 15.5 [2.81–289] | p=0.036 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Iron deficiency, 60-day visit, n = 6 | No iron deficiency, 60-day visit, n = 112 | 118 | 0.239 [0.0123–1.55] | ns (p=0.29) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Age over 65, n = 32 | No age over 65, n = 86 | 118 | 2.81 [1.23–6.66] | p=0.045 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Hospitalized >7 days, acute COVID-19, n = 59 | No hospitalized >7 days, acute COVID-19, n = 59 | 118 | 4.93 [2.28–11.1] | p=0.0026 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Any comorbidity, n = 90 | No any comorbidity, n = 28 | 118 | 6.86 [2.41–24.8] | p=0.01 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | >3 comorbidities, n = 37 | No >3 comorbidities, n = 81 | 118 | 6.05 [2.62–14.9] | p=0.0026 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Overweight or obesity, n = 72 | No overweight or obesity, n = 46 | 118 | 1.61 [0.762–3.48] | ns (p=0.3) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | >6 symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 33 | No >6 symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 85 | 118 | 0.767 [0.333–1.73] | ns (p=0.59) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Persistent symptoms, 60-day visit, n = 93 | No persistent symptoms, 60-day visit, n = 25 | 118 | 1.91 [0.769–5.08] | ns (p=0.26) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q1, 60-day visit, n = 31 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q1, 60-day visit, n = 79 | 110 | 0.0769 [0.0173–0.24] | p=0.0026 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit, n = 30 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit, n = 80 | 110 | 1.12 [0.481–2.62] | ns (p=0.83) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit, n = 27 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit, n = 83 | 110 | 1.8 [0.753–4.4] | ns (p=0.28) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit, n = 22 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit, n = 88 | 110 | 5.95 [2.13–19.5] | p=0.01 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Ambulatory, acute COVID-19, n = 33 | No ambulatory, acute COVID-19, n = 85 | 118 | 0.106 [0.0296–0.299] | p=0.0026 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Hospitalized, acute COVID-19, n = 33 | No hospitalized, acute COVID-19, n = 85 | 118 | 1.28 [0.569–2.88] | ns (p=0.61) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19, n = 33 | No oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19, n = 85 | 118 | 1.52 [0.676–3.43] | ns (p=0.38) |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | ICU, acute COVID-19, n = 19 | No ICU, acute COVID-19, n = 99 | 118 | 6.28 [2.1–23.3] | p=0.012 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Male sex, n = 63 | No male sex, n = 55 | 118 | 5.1 [1.75–18.7] | p=0.01 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Obesity, n = 22 | No obesity, n = 96 | 118 | 0.38 [0.0577–1.46] | ns (p=0.26) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Current smoker, n = 4 | No current smoker, n = 114 | 118 | 1.48 [0.0711–12.2] | ns (p=0.77) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Ex-smoker, n = 48 | No ex-smoker, n = 70 | 118 | 1.59 [0.623–4.09] | ns (p=0.37) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | CVD, n = 45 | No CVD, n = 73 | 118 | 4.71 [1.8–13.5] | p=0.0042 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Hypertension, n = 34 | No hypertension, n = 84 | 118 | 3.17 [1.21–8.38] | p=0.029 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | PD, n = 24 | No PD, n = 94 | 118 | 2.17 [0.735–6.02] | ns (p=0.18) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | COPD, n = 6 | No COPD, n = 112 | 118 | 2.3 [0.304–12.7] | ns (p=0.39) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Asthma, n = 9 | No asthma, n = 109 | 118 | 2.37 [0.468–9.85] | ns (p=0.29) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Metabolic disorders, n = 50 | No metabolic disorders, n = 68 | 118 | 2.92 [1.14–7.95] | p=0.045 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Hypercholesterolemia, n = 22 | No hypercholesterolemia, n = 96 | 118 | 2.52 [0.845–7.12] | ns (p=0.12) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Diabetes, n = 18 | No diabetes, n = 100 | 118 | 2.63 [0.816–7.87] | ns (p=0.12) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | CKD, n = 6 | No CKD, n = 112 | 118 | 4.89 [0.851–28.3] | ns (p=0.091) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | GITD, n = 17 | No GITD, n = 101 | 118 | 2.9 [0.892–8.83] | ns (p=0.092) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Malignancy, n = 13 | No malignancy, n = 105 | 118 | 0.333 [0.0178–1.84] | ns (p=0.35) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Immune deficiency, n = 5 | No immune deficiency, n = 113 | 118 | 7.42 [1.16–59.3] | ns (p=0.052) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Weight loss, acute COVID-19, n = 84 | No weight loss, acute COVID-19, n = 34 | 118 | 3.02 [0.939–13.5] | ns (p=0.13) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Dyspnea, acute COVID-19, n = 81 | No dyspnea, acute COVID-19, n = 37 | 118 | 1.7 [0.609–5.54] | ns (p=0.38) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Cough, acute COVID-19, n = 83 | No cough, acute COVID-19, n = 35 | 118 | 0.537 [0.206–1.44] | ns (p=0.25) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Fever, acute COVID-19, n = 83 | No fever, acute COVID-19, n = 35 | 118 | 2.15 [0.727–7.9] | ns (p=0.24) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Night sweat, acute COVID-19, n = 74 | No night sweat, acute COVID-19, n = 44 | 118 | 2.33 [0.84–7.55] | ns (p=0.17) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Pain, acute COVID-19, n = 65 | No pain, acute COVID-19, n = 53 | 118 | 0.495 [0.187–1.26] | ns (p=0.18) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | GI symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 47 | No GI symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 71 | 118 | 0.503 [0.168–1.34] | ns (p=0.23) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Anosmia, acute COVID-19, n = 53 | No anosmia, acute COVID-19, n = 65 | 118 | 1.61 [0.634–4.16] | ns (p=0.36) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Impaired performance, acute COVID-19, n = 106 | No impaired performance, acute COVID-19, n = 12 | 118 | 2.72 [0.486–51] | ns (p=0.39) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Sleep disorders, acute COVID-19, n = 40 | No sleep disorders, acute COVID-19, n = 77 | 117 | 1.13 [0.412–2.91] | ns (p=0.84) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Anti-infectives, acute COVID-19, n = 64 | No anti-infectives, acute COVID-19, n = 54 | 118 | 4.89 [1.68–17.9] | p=0.012 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Antiplatelet, acute COVID-19, n = 12 | No antiplatelet, acute COVID-19, n = 106 | 118 | 3.74 [1.01–13.2] | ns (p=0.06) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19, n = 4 | No anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19, n = 114 | 118 | 4.7 [0.538–41.1] | ns (p=0.17) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Immunosuppression, acute COVID-19, n = 20 | No immunosuppression, acute COVID-19, n = 98 | 118 | 5.35 [1.85–15.6] | p=0.0036 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Anemia, 60-day visit, n = 10 | No anemia, 60-day visit, n = 108 | 118 | 8.62 [2.23–37.1] | p=0.0039 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Elevated ferritin, 60-day visit, n = 20 | No elevated ferritin, 60-day visit, n = 98 | 118 | 2.2 [0.693–6.42] | ns (p=0.2) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit, n = 38 | No elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit, n = 80 | 118 | 3.23 [1.25–8.55] | p=0.026 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit, n = 49 | No elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit, n = 69 | 118 | 2.41 [0.945–6.38] | ns (p=0.096) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Elevated CRP, 60-day visit, n = 18 | No elevated CRP, 60-day visit, n = 100 | 118 | 4.91 [1.63–14.7] | p=0.0075 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Elevated IL-6, 60-day visit, n = 11 | No elevated IL-6, 60-day visit, n = 107 | 118 | 32.5 [7.43–230] | p=7.5e-05 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Iron deficiency, 60-day visit, n = 6 | No iron deficiency, 60-day visit, n = 112 | 118 | 0.867 [0.044–5.75] | ns (p=0.92) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Age over 65, n = 32 | No age over 65, n = 86 | 118 | 2.8 [1.05–7.4] | ns (p=0.055) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Hospitalized >7 days, acute COVID-19, n = 59 | No hospitalized >7 days, acute COVID-19, n = 59 | 118 | 4.37 [1.58–14.2] | p=0.012 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Any comorbidity, n = 90 | No any comorbidity, n = 28 | 118 | 8.22 [1.59–151] | ns (p=0.065) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | >3 comorbidities, n = 37 | No >3 comorbidities, n = 81 | 118 | 5.55 [2.11–15.5] | p=0.0013 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Overweight or obesity, n = 72 | No overweight or obesity, n = 46 | 118 | 0.72 [0.282–1.87] | ns (p=0.53) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | >6 symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 33 | No >6 symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 85 | 118 | 1.26 [0.438–3.35] | ns (p=0.69) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Persistent symptoms, 60-day visit, n = 93 | No persistent symptoms, 60-day visit, n = 25 | 118 | 3.15 [0.831–20.7] | ns (p=0.18) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit, n = 30 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit, n = 80 | 110 | 1.87 [0.666–5.07] | ns (p=0.26) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit, n = 27 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit, n = 83 | 110 | 0.675 [0.18–2.05] | ns (p=0.55) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit, n = 22 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit, n = 88 | 110 | 4.38 [1.53–12.6] | p=0.01 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Ambulatory, acute COVID-19, n = 33 | No ambulatory, acute COVID-19, n = 85 | 118 | 0.0952 [0.0052–0.488] | p=0.039 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Hospitalized, acute COVID-19, n = 33 | No hospitalized, acute COVID-19, n = 85 | 118 | 0.714 [0.218–2.01] | ns (p=0.58) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19, n = 33 | No oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19, n = 85 | 118 | 0.958 [0.316–2.61] | ns (p=0.95) |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | ICU, acute COVID-19, n = 19 | No ICU, acute COVID-19, n = 99 | 118 | 8.06 [2.75–24.5] | p=0.00035 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Male sex, n = 82 | No male sex, n = 63 | 145 | 0.701 [0.361–1.35] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Obesity, n = 28 | No obesity, n = 117 | 145 | 0.42 [0.169–0.982] | ns (p=0.84) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Current smoker, n = 4 | No current smoker, n = 141 | 145 | 3.22 [0.401–66] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Ex-smoker, n = 57 | No ex-smoker, n = 88 | 145 | 1.27 [0.654–2.49] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | CVD, n = 58 | No CVD, n = 87 | 145 | 0.851 [0.436–1.66] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Hypertension, n = 44 | No hypertension, n = 101 | 145 | 0.931 [0.456–1.89] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | PD, n = 27 | No PD, n = 118 | 145 | 1.38 [0.598–3.26] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | COPD, n = 8 | No COPD, n = 137 | 145 | 1.04 [0.238–4.58] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Asthma, n = 10 | No asthma, n = 135 | 145 | 1.05 [0.279–3.92] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Metabolic disorders, n = 63 | No metabolic disorders, n = 82 | 145 | 1.02 [0.527–1.96] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Hypercholesterolemia, n = 27 | No hypercholesterolemia, n = 118 | 145 | 0.55 [0.226–1.28] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Diabetes, n = 24 | No diabetes, n = 121 | 145 | 1.05 [0.434–2.54] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | CKD, n = 10 | No CKD, n = 135 | 145 | 1.62 [0.442–6.56] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | GITD, n = 20 | No GITD, n = 125 | 145 | 1.68 [0.649–4.55] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Malignancy, n = 17 | No malignancy, n = 128 | 145 | 0.7 [0.241–1.94] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Immune deficiency, n = 9 | No immune deficiency, n = 136 | 145 | 0.824 [0.197–3.24] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Weight loss, acute COVID-19, n = 106 | No weight loss, acute COVID-19, n = 39 | 145 | 1.34 [0.644–2.84] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Dyspnea, acute COVID-19, n = 98 | No dyspnea, acute COVID-19, n = 47 | 145 | 2.84 [1.39–6.04] | ns (p=0.2) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Cough, acute COVID-19, n = 102 | No cough, acute COVID-19, n = 43 | 145 | 1.97 [0.96–4.17] | ns (p=0.88) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Fever, acute COVID-19, n = 106 | No fever, acute COVID-19, n = 39 | 145 | 1.17 [0.559–2.45] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Night sweat, acute COVID-19, n = 92 | No night sweat, acute COVID-19, n = 53 | 145 | 1.42 [0.723–2.83] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Pain, acute COVID-19, n = 78 | No pain, acute COVID-19, n = 67 | 145 | 1.92 [0.993–3.75] | ns (p=0.84) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | GI symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 59 | No GI symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 86 | 145 | 1.27 [0.656–2.48] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Anosmia, acute COVID-19, n = 62 | No anosmia, acute COVID-19, n = 83 | 145 | 1.69 [0.874–3.31] | ns (p=0.96) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Impaired performance, acute COVID-19, n = 132 | No impaired performance, acute COVID-19, n = 13 | 145 | 1.13 [0.358–3.69] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Sleep disorders, acute COVID-19, n = 56 | No sleep disorders, acute COVID-19, n = 88 | 144 | 1.38 [0.708–2.73] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Anti-infectives, acute COVID-19, n = 78 | No anti-infectives, acute COVID-19, n = 67 | 145 | 0.701 [0.362–1.35] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Antiplatelet, acute COVID-19, n = 22 | No antiplatelet, acute COVID-19, n = 123 | 145 | 1.05 [0.42–2.63] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19, n = 9 | No anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19, n = 136 | 145 | 2.18 [0.553–10.7] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Immunosuppression, acute COVID-19, n = 27 | No immunosuppression, acute COVID-19, n = 118 | 145 | 1.38 [0.598–3.26] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Anemia, 60-day visit, n = 16 | No anemia, 60-day visit, n = 129 | 145 | 0.591 [0.191–1.69] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Elevated ferritin, 60-day visit, n = 26 | No elevated ferritin, 60-day visit, n = 118 | 144 | 1.29 [0.551–3.07] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit, n = 52 | No elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit, n = 93 | 145 | 1.96 [0.987–3.94] | ns (p=0.84) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit, n = 60 | No elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit, n = 85 | 145 | 1.7 [0.874–3.33] | ns (p=0.96) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Elevated CRP, 60-day visit, n = 23 | No elevated CRP, 60-day visit, n = 122 | 145 | 1.16 [0.475–2.88] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Elevated IL-6, 60-day visit, n = 17 | No elevated IL-6, 60-day visit, n = 128 | 145 | 0.529 [0.173–1.48] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Iron deficiency, 60-day visit, n = 6 | No iron deficiency, 60-day visit, n = 138 | 144 | 2.18 [0.412–16.1] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Age over 65, n = 43 | No age over 65, n = 102 | 145 | 1.69 [0.827–3.51] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Hospitalized >7 days, acute COVID-19, n = 80 | No hospitalized >7 days, acute COVID-19, n = 65 | 145 | 1.1 [0.569–2.12] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Any comorbidity, n = 112 | No any comorbidity, n = 33 | 145 | 1.03 [0.47–2.24] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | >3 comorbidities, n = 47 | No >3 comorbidities, n = 98 | 145 | 1.46 [0.727–2.95] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Overweight or obesity, n = 86 | No overweight or obesity, n = 59 | 145 | 0.7 [0.358–1.36] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | >6 symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 42 | No >6 symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 103 | 145 | 1.82 [0.885–3.82] | ns (p=0.96) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Persistent symptoms, 60-day visit, n = 115 | No persistent symptoms, 60-day visit, n = 30 | 145 | 4.12 [1.71–11.1] | ns (p=0.2) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q1, 60-day visit, n = 34 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q1, 60-day visit, n = 100 | 134 | 1.04 [0.476–2.28] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit, n = 33 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit, n = 101 | 134 | 1.13 [0.512–2.49] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit, n = 34 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit, n = 100 | 134 | 0.646 [0.289–1.41] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit, n = 33 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit, n = 101 | 134 | 1.32 [0.603–2.95] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Ambulatory, acute COVID-19, n = 36 | No ambulatory, acute COVID-19, n = 109 | 145 | 0.911 [0.426–1.94] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Hospitalized, acute COVID-19, n = 37 | No hospitalized, acute COVID-19, n = 108 | 145 | 0.983 [0.463–2.08] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19, n = 40 | No oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19, n = 105 | 145 | 0.922 [0.442–1.91] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | ICU, acute COVID-19, n = 32 | No ICU, acute COVID-19, n = 113 | 145 | 1.24 [0.564–2.74] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Male sex, n = 71 | No male sex, n = 51 | 122 | 2.12 [0.964–4.85] | ns (p=0.1) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Obesity, n = 22 | No obesity, n = 100 | 122 | 1.94 [0.746–5] | ns (p=0.22) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Current smoker, n = 3 | No current smoker, n = 119 | 122 | 4.26 [0.397–93.4] | ns (p=0.3) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Ex-smoker, n = 45 | No ex-smoker, n = 77 | 122 | 1.95 [0.897–4.26] | ns (p=0.13) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | CVD, n = 49 | No CVD, n = 73 | 122 | 1.57 [0.727–3.39] | ns (p=0.31) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Hypertension, n = 35 | No hypertension, n = 87 | 122 | 1.56 [0.683–3.54] | ns (p=0.34) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | PD, n = 23 | No PD, n = 99 | 122 | 2.21 [0.869–5.62] | ns (p=0.13) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | COPD, n = 7 | No COPD, n = 115 | 122 | 2.93 [0.615–15.5] | ns (p=0.23) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Asthma, n = 9 | No asthma, n = 113 | 122 | 1.03 [0.208–4.12] | ns (p=0.97) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Metabolic disorders, n = 53 | No metabolic disorders, n = 69 | 122 | 1.73 [0.807–3.73] | ns (p=0.22) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Hypercholesterolemia, n = 24 | No hypercholesterolemia, n = 98 | 122 | 1.03 [0.383–2.61] | ns (p=0.96) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Diabetes, n = 21 | No diabetes, n = 101 | 122 | 2.15 [0.816–5.64] | ns (p=0.16) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | CKD, n = 8 | No CKD, n = 114 | 122 | 17.2 [2.9–328] | p=0.02 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | GITD, n = 16 | No GITD, n = 106 | 122 | 3.11 [1.07–9.42] | ns (p=0.061) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Malignancy, n = 14 | No malignancy, n = 108 | 122 | 4.47 [1.43–15.6] | p=0.025 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Immune deficiency, n = 6 | No immune deficiency, n = 116 | 122 | 2.14 [0.38–12] | ns (p=0.43) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Weight loss, acute COVID-19, n = 91 | No weight loss, acute COVID-19, n = 31 | 122 | 1.56 [0.645–4.08] | ns (p=0.41) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Dyspnea, acute COVID-19, n = 82 | No dyspnea, acute COVID-19, n = 40 | 122 | 3.17 [1.31–8.58] | p=0.029 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Cough, acute COVID-19, n = 88 | No cough, acute COVID-19, n = 34 | 122 | 0.856 [0.375–2.01] | ns (p=0.76) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Fever, acute COVID-19, n = 92 | No fever, acute COVID-19, n = 30 | 122 | 1.19 [0.496–3.01] | ns (p=0.76) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Night sweat, acute COVID-19, n = 79 | No night sweat, acute COVID-19, n = 43 | 122 | 0.39 [0.176–0.852] | p=0.033 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Pain, acute COVID-19, n = 65 | No pain, acute COVID-19, n = 57 | 122 | 0.609 [0.282–1.3] | ns (p=0.26) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | GI symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 46 | No GI symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 76 | 122 | 0.715 [0.316–1.57] | ns (p=0.47) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Anosmia, acute COVID-19, n = 51 | No anosmia, acute COVID-19, n = 71 | 122 | 0.895 [0.41–1.92] | ns (p=0.82) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Impaired performance, acute COVID-19, n = 111 | No impaired performance, acute COVID-19, n = 11 | 122 | 0.84 [0.238–3.38] | ns (p=0.82) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Sleep disorders, acute COVID-19, n = 46 | No sleep disorders, acute COVID-19, n = 75 | 121 | 0.7 [0.309–1.54] | ns (p=0.44) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Anti-infectives, acute COVID-19, n = 63 | No anti-infectives, acute COVID-19, n = 59 | 122 | 2.65 [1.22–6] | p=0.03 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Antiplatelet, acute COVID-19, n = 17 | No antiplatelet, acute COVID-19, n = 105 | 122 | 4.8 [1.67–15.1] | p=0.011 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19, n = 7 | No anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19, n = 115 | 122 | 2.93 [0.615–15.5] | ns (p=0.23) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Immunosuppression, acute COVID-19, n = 22 | No immunosuppression, acute COVID-19, n = 100 | 122 | 2.45 [0.95–6.34] | ns (p=0.096) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Anemia, 60-day visit, n = 11 | No anemia, 60-day visit, n = 111 | 122 | 4.14 [1.17–16.7] | ns (p=0.053) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Elevated ferritin, 60-day visit, n = 21 | No elevated ferritin, 60-day visit, n = 100 | 121 | 1.37 [0.498–3.6] | ns (p=0.58) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit, n = 44 | No elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit, n = 78 | 122 | 2.42 [1.11–5.33] | p=0.046 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit, n = 50 | No elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit, n = 72 | 122 | 3.23 [1.49–7.2] | p=0.0089 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Elevated CRP, 60-day visit, n = 17 | No elevated CRP, 60-day visit, n = 105 | 122 | 6.6 [2.24–22.3] | p=0.0029 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Elevated IL-6, 60-day visit, n = 9 | No elevated IL-6, 60-day visit, n = 113 | 122 | 20.2 [3.52–383] | p=0.013 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Iron deficiency, 60-day visit, n = 6 | No iron deficiency, 60-day visit, n = 115 | 121 | 1.05 [0.142–5.65] | ns (p=0.96) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Age over 65, n = 33 | No age over 65, n = 89 | 122 | 2.55 [1.11–5.88] | p=0.046 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Hospitalized >7 days, acute COVID-19, n = 66 | No hospitalized >7 days, acute COVID-19, n = 56 | 122 | 3.83 [1.7–9.21] | p=0.0045 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Any comorbidity, n = 93 | No any comorbidity, n = 29 | 122 | 3.95 [1.39–14.2] | p=0.032 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | >3 comorbidities, n = 41 | No >3 comorbidities, n = 81 | 122 | 2.47 [1.12–5.48] | p=0.044 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Overweight or obesity, n = 72 | No overweight or obesity, n = 50 | 122 | 1.24 [0.575–2.73] | ns (p=0.64) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | >6 symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 34 | No >6 symptoms, acute COVID-19, n = 88 | 122 | 0.538 [0.207–1.29] | ns (p=0.23) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Persistent symptoms, 60-day visit, n = 96 | No persistent symptoms, 60-day visit, n = 26 | 122 | 1.83 [0.702–5.39] | ns (p=0.3) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q1, 60-day visit, n = 28 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q1, 60-day visit, n = 84 | 112 | 0.245 [0.0675–0.704] | p=0.03 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit, n = 27 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit, n = 85 | 112 | 2.23 [0.913–5.45] | ns (p=0.12) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit, n = 28 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit, n = 84 | 112 | 0.72 [0.27–1.78] | ns (p=0.55) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit, n = 29 | No anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit, n = 83 | 112 | 1.88 [0.784–4.51] | ns (p=0.21) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Ambulatory, acute COVID-19, n = 32 | No ambulatory, acute COVID-19, n = 90 | 122 | 0.214 [0.0597–0.603] | p=0.017 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Hospitalized, acute COVID-19, n = 32 | No hospitalized, acute COVID-19, n = 90 | 122 | 1.1 [0.458–2.56] | ns (p=0.85) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19, n = 32 | No oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19, n = 90 | 122 | 1.33 [0.561–3.07] | ns (p=0.57) |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | ICU, acute COVID-19, n = 26 | No ICU, acute COVID-19, n = 96 | 122 | 2.56 [1.05–6.27] | ns (p=0.061) |
-
CVD = cardiovascular disease; PD = pulmonary disease; COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CKD = chronic kidney disease; GITD = gastrointestinal disease; GI = gastrointestinal; CRP = C-reactive protein; ICU = intensive care unit; CT = computed tomography.
Appendix 1—table 3
Feature cluster assignment scheme.
| Cluster # | Variable |
|---|---|
| 1 | Male sex, CVD, hypertension, metabolic disorders, anti-infectives, acute COVID-19, elevated NTproBNP, 60-day visit, elevated D-dimer, 60-day visit, hospitalized >7 days, acute COVID-19, >3 comorbidities, overweight |
| 2 | Obesity, current smoker, ex-smoker, PD, COPD, asthma, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, CKD, GITD, malignancy, immune deficiency, GI symptoms, acute COVID-19, anosmia, acute COVID-19, sleep disorders, acute COVID-19, antiplatelet, acute COVID-19, anticoagulatives, acute COVID-19, immunosuppression, acute COVID-19, anemia, 60-day visit, elevated ferritin, 60-day visit, elevated CRP, 60-day visit, elevated IL-6, 60-day visit, iron deficiency, 60-day visit, age over 65, > 6 symptoms, acute COVID-19, anti-S1/S2 IgG Q1, 60-day visit, anti-S1/S2 IgG Q2, 60-day visit, anti-S1/S2 IgG Q3, 60-day visit, anti-S1/S2 IgG Q4, 60-day visit, ambulatory, acute COVID-19, hospitalized, acute COVID-19, oxygen therapy, acute COVID-19, ICU, acute COVID-19, CT severity score 1–5 at 180-day visit, CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit, lung function impairment at 180-day visit |
| 3 | Weight loss, acute COVID-19, dyspnea, acute COVID-19, cough, acute COVID-19, fever, acute COVID-19, night sweat, acute COVID-19, pain, acute COVID-19, impaired performance, acute COVID-19, any comorbidity, persistent symptoms, 60-day visit, symptoms at 180-day visit |
-
CVD = cardiovascular disease; PD = pulmonary disease; COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CKD = chronic kidney disease; GITD = gastrointestinal disease; GI = gastrointestinal; CRP = C-reactive protein; ICU = intensive care unit; CT = computed tomography.
Appendix 1—table 4
Development of machine learning models.
Outcome: outcome variable at the 180-day follow-up visit
| Outcome | Classifier type | Caret method | Description | Package | Optimal arguments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | model | C5.0 | C5.0 | C50 | trials = 10, model = tree, winnow = FALSE |
| rf | Random Forest | randomForest | mtry = 27 | ||
| svmRadial | Support Vector Machines with Radial Basis Function Kernel | kernlab | sigma = 0.0105, C = 0.5 | ||
| nnet | Neural Network | nnet | size = 1, decay = 0 | ||
| glmnet | Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models | glmnet | alpha = 0.1, lambda = 0.000431 | ||
| ensemble | glmnet | Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models | glmnet | alpha = 1, lambda = 0.0523 | |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | model | C5.0 | C5.0 | C50 | trials = 1, model = rules, winnow = TRUE |
| rf | Random Forest | randomForest | mtry = 52 | ||
| svmRadial | Support Vector Machines with Radial Basis Function Kernel | kernlab | sigma = 0.00979, C = 0.5 | ||
| nnet | Neural Network | nnet | size = 1, decay = 0.1 | ||
| glmnet | Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models | glmnet | alpha = 0.1, lambda = 0.0419 | ||
| ensemble | glmnet | Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models | glmnet | alpha = 0.1, lambda = 0.00379 | |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | model | C5.0 | C5.0 | C50 | trials = 1, model = tree, winnow = FALSE |
| rf | Random Forest | randomForest | mtry = 27 | ||
| svmRadial | Support Vector Machines with Radial Basis Function Kernel | kernlab | sigma = 0.0109, C = 1 | ||
| nnet | Neural Network | nnet | size = 3, decay = 0.1 | ||
| glmnet | Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models | glmnet | alpha = 0.1, lambda = 0.000247 | ||
| ensemble | glmnet | Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models | glmnet | alpha = 0.1, lambda = 0.0167 | |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | model | C5.0 | C5.0 | C50 | trials = 1, model = rules, winnow = FALSE |
| rf | Random Forest | randomForest | mtry = 52 | ||
| svmRadial | Support Vector Machines with Radial Basis Function Kernel | kernlab | sigma = 0.0108, C = 0.5 | ||
| nnet | Neural Network | nnet | size = 1, decay = 0.1 | ||
| glmnet | Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models | glmnet | alpha = 0.55, lambda = 0.0341 | ||
| ensemble | glmnet | Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models | glmnet | alpha = 0.55, lambda = 0.0387 |
Appendix 1—table 5
Performance of machine learning classifiers.
Outcome: outcome variable at the 180-day follow-up visit; Method: Caret method, Accuracy: model accuracy with 95% confidence intervals, Kappa: model kappa statistic with 95% confidence intervals, …
| Outcome | Total N | Events N | Method | Data set | Accuracy | Kappa | AUC | Sensitivity | Specificity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | C5.0 | CV | 0.72 [0.36–1] | 0.43 [-0.35–1] | 0.78 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | C5.0 | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | ensemble | CV | 0.78 [0.63–0.93] | 0.55 [0.26–0.85] | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.8 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | ensemble | Training | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.98 | 0.86 | 0.98 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | glmnet | CV | 0.71 [0.3–1] | 0.42 [-0.52–1] | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | glmnet | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | nnet | cCV | 0.67 [0.26–1] | 0.35 [-0.38–1] | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | nnet | Training | 0.76 | 0.54 | 0.78 | 1 | 0.57 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | rf | CV | 0.73 [0.4–1] | 0.45 [-0.33–1] | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | svmRadial | CV | 0.75 [0.4–1] | 0.51 [-0.25–1] | 0.8 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | 109 | 49 | svmRadial | Training | 0.85 | 0.7 | 0.93 | 0.84 | 0.87 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | C5.0 | CV | 0.86 [0.67–1] | 0.37 [-0.2–1] | 0.7 | 0.39 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | C5.0 | Training | 0.87 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.43 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | ensemble | CV | 0.88 [0.81–0.96] | 0.51 [0.044–0.89] | 0.75 | 0.45 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | ensemble | Training | 0.89 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.48 | 0.99 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | glmnet | CV | 0.84 [0.6–1] | 0.34 [-0.25–1] | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.94 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | glmnet | Training | 0.94 | 0.8 | 0.97 | 0.71 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | nnet | CV | 0.79 [0.5–1] | 0.31 [-0.29–1] | 0.72 | 0.47 | 0.87 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | nnet | Training | 0.99 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | rf | CV | 0.84 [0.6–1] | 0.34 [-0.25–1] | 0.73 | 0.4 | 0.95 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | svmRadial | CV | 0.87 [0.63–1] | 0.43 [-0.23–1] | 0.75 | 0.48 | 0.97 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | 109 | 21 | svmRadial | Training | 0.92 | 0.68 | 0.99 | 0.57 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | C5.0 | CV | 0.73 [0.33–1] | 0.39 [-0.5–1] | 0.7 | 0.54 | 0.84 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | C5.0 | Training | 0.86 | 0.7 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.9 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | ensemble | CV | 0.75 [0.61–0.86] | 0.39 [0.052–0.67] | 0.72 | 0.48 | 0.89 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | ensemble | Training | 0.89 | 0.75 | 0.98 | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | glmnet | CV | 0.74 [0.4–1] | 0.37 [-0.36–1] | 0.66 | 0.51 | 0.86 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | glmnet | Training | 0.83 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 0.61 | 0.95 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | nnet | CV | 0.65 [0.2–1] | 0.2 [-0.5–1] | 0.59 | 0.44 | 0.76 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | nnet | Training | 0.93 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | rf | CV | 0.73 [0.4–1] | 0.35 [-0.33–1] | 0.72 | 0.49 | 0.85 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | svmRadial | CV | 0.72 [0.36–1] | 0.35 [-0.44–1] | 0.69 | 0.5 | 0.84 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | 111 | 38 | svmRadial | Training | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 0.96 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | C5.0 | CV | 0.6 [0.22–0.93] | 0.2 [-0.51–0.87] | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | C5.0 | Training | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | ensemble | CV | 0.58 [0.41–0.74] | 0.16 [-0.19–0.49] | 0.6 | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | ensemble | Training | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1 | 0.98 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | glmnet | CV | 0.56 [0.17–0.86] | 0.13 [-0.64–0.72] | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | glmnet | Training | 0.85 | 0.7 | 0.92 | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | nnet | CV | 0.59 [0.29–0.86] | 0.17 [-0.52–0.72] | 0.58 | 0.6 | 0.57 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | nnet | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | rf | CV | 0.56 [0.29–0.86] | 0.13 [-0.46–0.71] | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | svmRadial | CV | 0.54 [0.17–0.83] | 0.089 [-0.67–0.67] | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | 133 | 65 | svmRadial | Training | 0.86 | 0.73 | 0.94 | 0.85 | 0.88 |
-
AUC = area under the curve; CT = computed tomography; glmnet = elastic-net regularized generalized linear models; nnet = neural networks; svmRadial = support vector machines with radial basis function kernel; rf = random forest; ensemble = model ensemble with elastic-net regularized generalized linear models
Appendix 1—table 6
Performance of machine learning classifiers in the acute COVID-19 severity strata.
Outcome: outcome variable at the 180-day follow-up visit; cohort subset: cohort acute COVID-19 severity strata (mild–moderate: outpatient or hospitalized without oxygen; severe–critical: oxygen …
| Outcome | Cohort subset | Total N | Events N | Method | Data set | AUC | Sensitivity | Specificity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | C5.0 | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | C5.0 | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | C5.0 | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | svmRadial | Training | 0.93 | 0.84 | 0.87 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | svmRadial | Training | 0.9 | 0.61 | 0.95 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | svmRadial | Training | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.7 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | nnet | Training | 0.78 | 1 | 0.57 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | nnet | Training | 0.92 | 1 | 0.85 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | nnet | Training | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | glmnet | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | glmnet | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | glmnet | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | ensemble | Training | 0.98 | 0.86 | 0.98 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | ensemble | Training | 0.98 | 0.61 | 1 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | ensemble | Training | 1 | 1 | 0.95 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | C5.0 | Training | 0.7 | 0.43 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | C5.0 | Training | 0.57 | 0.17 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | C5.0 | Training | 0.75 | 0.53 | 0.97 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | svmRadial | Training | 0.99 | 0.57 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | svmRadial | Training | 0.98 | 0.17 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | svmRadial | Training | 1 | 0.73 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | nnet | Training | 1 | 0.95 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | nnet | Training | 1 | 0.83 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | nnet | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | glmnet | Training | 0.97 | 0.71 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | glmnet | Training | 0.94 | 0.33 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | glmnet | Training | 1 | 0.87 | 1 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | ensemble | Training | 0.65 | 0.48 | 0.99 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | ensemble | Training | 0.38 | 0.17 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | ensemble | Training | 0.74 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | C5.0 | Training | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | C5.0 | Training | 0.97 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | C5.0 | Training | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | svmRadial | Training | 0.94 | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | svmRadial | Training | 0.93 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | svmRadial | Training | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | nnet | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | nnet | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | nnet | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | glmnet | Training | 0.92 | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | glmnet | Training | 0.91 | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | glmnet | Training | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.88 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | ensemble | Training | 1 | 0.98 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | ensemble | Training | 1 | 0.97 | 1 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | ensemble | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | C5.0 | Training | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.9 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | C5.0 | Training | 0.81 | 0.71 | 0.9 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | C5.0 | Training | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | rf | Training | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | svmRadial | Training | 0.94 | 0.71 | 0.96 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | svmRadial | Training | 0.88 | 0.5 | 0.98 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | svmRadial | Training | 0.98 | 0.83 | 0.94 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | nnet | Training | 0.82 | 0.79 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | nnet | Training | 0.7 | 0.64 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | nnet | Training | 0.89 | 0.88 | 1 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | glmnet | Training | 0.89 | 0.61 | 0.95 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | glmnet | Training | 0.84 | 0.29 | 0.95 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | glmnet | Training | 0.91 | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | ensemble | Training | 0.98 | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | ensemble | Training | 0.97 | 0.71 | 0.95 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | ensemble | Training | 0.98 | 0.83 | 0.94 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | C5.0 | CV | 0.78 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | C5.0 | CV | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.8 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | C5.0 | CV | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.62 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | rf | CV | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | rf | CV | 0.76 | 0.43 | 0.88 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | rf | CV | 0.71 | 0.88 | 0.47 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | svmRadial | CV | 0.8 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | svmRadial | CV | 0.75 | 0.56 | 0.9 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | svmRadial | CV | 0.76 | 0.92 | 0.4 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | nnet | CV | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | nnet | CV | 0.67 | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | nnet | CV | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.39 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | glmnet | CV | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | glmnet | CV | 0.78 | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | glmnet | CV | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.6 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 49 | ensemble | CV | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.8 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 18 | ensemble | CV | 0.76 | 0.55 | 0.92 |
| CT abnormalities at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 31 | ensemble | CV | 0.79 | 0.87 | 0.55 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | C5.0 | CV | 0.7 | 0.39 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | C5.0 | CV | 0.55 | 0.13 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | C5.0 | CV | 0.76 | 0.49 | 0.97 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | rf | CV | 0.73 | 0.4 | 0.95 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | rf | CV | 0.58 | 0.033 | 0.96 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | rf | CV | 0.76 | 0.55 | 0.93 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | svmRadial | CV | 0.75 | 0.48 | 0.97 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | svmRadial | CV | 0.59 | 0.13 | 0.97 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | svmRadial | CV | 0.79 | 0.61 | 0.97 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | nnet | CV | 0.72 | 0.47 | 0.87 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | nnet | CV | 0.57 | 0.17 | 0.89 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | nnet | CV | 0.76 | 0.59 | 0.84 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | glmnet | CV | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.94 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | glmnet | CV | 0.63 | 0.17 | 0.97 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | glmnet | CV | 0.78 | 0.51 | 0.89 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 109 | 21 | ensemble | CV | 0.75 | 0.45 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 58 | 6 | ensemble | CV | 0.64 | 0.17 | 0.98 |
| CT severity score >5 at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 51 | 15 | ensemble | CV | 0.78 | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | C5.0 | CV | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | C5.0 | CV | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | C5.0 | CV | 0.55 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | rf | CV | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | rf | CV | 0.6 | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | rf | CV | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | svmRadial | CV | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | svmRadial | CV | 0.54 | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | svmRadial | CV | 0.56 | 0.43 | 0.66 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | nnet | CV | 0.58 | 0.6 | 0.57 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | nnet | CV | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | nnet | CV | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.6 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | glmnet | CV | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | glmnet | CV | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.6 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | glmnet | CV | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 133 | 65 | ensemble | CV | 0.6 | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 64 | 30 | ensemble | CV | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| Symptoms at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 69 | 35 | ensemble | CV | 0.6 | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | C5.0 | CV | 0.7 | 0.54 | 0.84 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | C5.0 | CV | 0.61 | 0.37 | 0.86 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | C5.0 | CV | 0.75 | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | rf | CV | 0.72 | 0.49 | 0.85 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | rf | CV | 0.58 | 0.26 | 0.9 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | rf | CV | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | svmRadial | CV | 0.69 | 0.5 | 0.84 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | svmRadial | CV | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.88 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | svmRadial | CV | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | nnet | CV | 0.59 | 0.44 | 0.76 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | nnet | CV | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.83 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | nnet | CV | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | glmnet | CV | 0.66 | 0.51 | 0.86 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | glmnet | CV | 0.55 | 0.21 | 0.88 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | glmnet | CV | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Whole cohort | 111 | 38 | ensemble | CV | 0.72 | 0.48 | 0.89 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Mild–moderate COVID-19 | 55 | 14 | ensemble | CV | 0.59 | 0.26 | 0.92 |
| Lung function impairment at 180-day visit | Severe–critical COVID-19 | 56 | 24 | ensemble | CV | 0.78 | 0.61 | 0.85 |
-
AUC = area under the curve; CT = computed tomography; ICU = intensive care unit; glmnet = elastic-net regularized generalized linear models; nnet = neural network; svmRadial = support vector machines with radial basis function kernel; rf = random forest; ensemble = model ensemble with elastic-net regularized generalized linear models
Additional files
-
Transparent reporting form
- https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/72500/elife-72500-transrepform1-v2.docx
-
Source data 1
Figure plots source data.
- https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/72500/elife-72500-data1-v2.xlsx
