Validation of a multi-ancestry polygenic risk score and age-specific risks of prostate cancer: a meta-analysis within diverse populations
- University of Southern California, United States
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, United States
- Argonne National Laboratory, United States
- Yale School of Medicine, United States
- Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, United States
- National Institutes of Health, United States
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, United States
- Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, United States
- VA Boston Healthcare System, United States
- Hôpital Général Idrissa Pouye, Senegal
- University of Ibadan, Nigeria
- University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, Nigeria
- 37 Military Hospital, Ghana
- Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital, Ghana
- Hôpital Aristide Le Dantec, Senegal
- Georgia Institute of Technology, United States
- VA Connecticut Healthcare System, United States
- University of Southern California, Spain
Abstract
Background: We recently developed a multi-ancestry polygenic risk score (PRS) that effectively stratifies prostate cancer risk across populations. In this study, we validated the performance of the PRS in the multi-ancestry Million Veteran Program (MVP) and additional independent studies.
Methods: Within each ancestry population, the association of PRS with prostate cancer risk was evaluated separately in each case-control study and then combined in a fixed-effects inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. We further assessed the effect modification by age and estimated the age-specific absolute risk of prostate cancer for each ancestry population.
Results: The PRS was evaluated in 31,925 cases and 490,507 controls, including men from European (22,049 cases, 414,249 controls), African (8,794 cases, 55,657 controls), and Hispanic (1,082 cases, 20,601 controls) populations. Comparing men in the top decile (90-100% of the PRS) to the average 40-60% PRS category, the prostate cancer odds ratio (OR) was 3.8-fold in European ancestry men (95% CI=3.62-3.96), 2.8-fold in African ancestry men (95% CI=2.59-3.03), and 3.2-fold in Hispanic men (95% CI=2.64-3.92). The PRS did not discriminate risk of aggressive versus non-aggressive prostate cancer. However, the OR diminished with advancing age (European ancestry men in the top decile: ≤55 years, OR=7.11; 55-60 years, OR=4.26; >70 years, OR=2.79). Men in the top PRS decile reached 5% absolute prostate cancer risk ~10 years younger than men in the 40-60% PRS category.
Conclusions: Our findings validate the multi-ancestry PRS as an effective prostate cancer risk stratification tool across populations. A clinical study of PRS is warranted to determine if the PRS could be used for risk-stratified screening and early detection.
Funding: This work was supported by the National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health (grant numbers U19 CA214253 to C.A.H., U01 CA257328 to C.A.H., U19 CA148537 to C.A.H., R01 CA165862 to C.A.H., K99 CA246063 to B.F.D, and T32CA229110 to F.C), the Prostate Cancer Foundation (grants 21YOUN11 to B.F.D. and 20CHAS03 to C.A.H.), the Achievement Rewards for College Scientists Foundation Los Angeles Founder Chapter to B.F.D, and the Million Veteran Program-MVP017. This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under application number 42195. This research is based on data from the Million Veteran Program, Office of Research and Development, and the Veterans Health Administration. This publication does not represent the views of the Department of Veteran Affairs or the United States Government.
Data availability
This investigation included published results from the following studies under DOI numbers 10.1038/s41588-020-00748-0 and 10.1093/jnci/djab058. For the MVP data, the final data sets underlying this study cannot be shared outside the VA, except as required under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), per VA policy. However, upon request through the formal mechanisms in place and pending approval from the VHA Office of Research Oversight (ORO), a de-identified, anonymized dataset underlying this study can be created. Upon request through the formal mechanisms provided by the VHA ORO, we would be able to provide sufficiently detailed variable names and definitions to allow replication of our work. Any requests for data access should be directed to the VHA ORO (OROCROW@va.gov), and should reference the following project and analysis: 'MVP017: A VA-DOE Exemplar Project on Cancer'. Publicly available data described in this manuscript can be found from the following websites: 1000 Genomes Project (https://www.internationalgenome.org/); SEER (https://seer.cancer.gov/); National Center for Health Statistics, and CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/index.htm).
Article and author information
Author details
Olufemi J Ogunbiyi
Afua Darkwa-Abrahams
Christopher A Haiman
Funding
National Cancer Institute (U19 CA214253)
- Christopher A Haiman
Million Veteran Program (MVP017)
- J Michael Gaziano
- Amy C Justice
National Cancer Institute (U01 CA257328)
- Christopher A Haiman
National Cancer Institute (U19 CA148537)
- Christopher A Haiman
National Cancer Institute (R01 CA165862)
- Christopher A Haiman
National Cancer Institute (K99 CA246063)
- Burcu F Darst
National Cancer Institute (T32CA229110)
- Fei Chen
Prostate Cancer Foundation (20CHAS03)
- Christopher A Haiman
Prostate Cancer Foundation (21YOUN11)
- Burcu F Darst
Achievement Rewards for College Scientists Foundation
- Burcu F Darst
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Ethics
Human subjects: All study protocols were approved by each site's Institutional Review Board, and informedconsent was obtained from all study participants in accordance with the principles outlined in theDeclaration of Helsinki.
Copyright
This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
Metrics
-
- 2,200
- views
-
- 467
- downloads
-
- 20
- citations
Views, downloads and citations are aggregated across all versions of this paper published by eLife.
Download links
A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.
Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)
Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)
Cite this article (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)
Validation of a multi-ancestry polygenic risk score and age-specific risks of prostate cancer: a meta-analysis within diverse populations
eLife 11:e78304.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.78304
Further reading
-
- Epidemiology and Global Health
Artificially sweetened beverages containing noncaloric monosaccharides were suggested as healthier alternatives to sugar-sweetened beverages. Nevertheless, the potential detrimental effects of these noncaloric monosaccharides on blood vessel function remain inadequately understood. We have established a zebrafish model that exhibits significant excessive angiogenesis induced by high glucose, resembling the hyperangiogenic characteristics observed in proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR). Utilizing this model, we observed that glucose and noncaloric monosaccharides could induce excessive formation of blood vessels, especially intersegmental vessels (ISVs). The excessively branched vessels were observed to be formed by ectopic activation of quiescent endothelial cells (ECs) into tip cells. Single-cell transcriptomic sequencing analysis of the ECs in the embryos exposed to high glucose revealed an augmented ratio of capillary ECs, proliferating ECs, and a series of upregulated proangiogenic genes. Further analysis and experiments validated that reduced foxo1a mediated the excessive angiogenesis induced by monosaccharides via upregulating the expression of marcksl1a. This study has provided new evidence showing the negative effects of noncaloric monosaccharides on the vascular system and the underlying mechanisms.
-
- Epidemiology and Global Health
- Microbiology and Infectious Disease
Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here, we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997—2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection ynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.
